In today’s briefing:
- US Tariffs: Of Words And Bonds
- VRG Leads Rubber Growth Across Laos Plantation Heartlands
- Trump’s End Game
- Hong Kong Market Strategy – Trade and Portfolio Ideas Amidst the Volatility
- The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma – SPINDO Is Piping Hot, DigiPlus, and Malaysian Banks
- How Commodities React To Trumps New Global Trade Plans
- [US Crude Oil Options Weekly 2025/15] WTI Pauses Slide on Tariff Delay
- US Financial Markets: Unwinding of Leverage Imparts Pain and Unusual Price Action
- [US Nat Gas Options Weekly 2025/15] Henry Hub Dropped Amid Trade Turmoil and Warmer Forecasts
- Real Asset Chartbook Week #3: Continued Volatility
US Tariffs: Of Words And Bonds
- Donald Trump’s recent policy reversal may provide an opportunity for the completion of bilateral trade agreements with certain US partners.
- However, neither China nor the EU is expected to reach an agreement soon, particularly in the current context.
- This is largely due to the evident vulnerability of America to the bond market.
VRG Leads Rubber Growth Across Laos Plantation Heartlands
- VRG’s Lao division scripts US$14.85 million in profit in 2024
- VRG’s rubber output in Laos touches 34,592 tons in 2024
- Prime Minister asks VRG to start tire units in Laos
Trump’s End Game
- Trading Post’s top buy calls are the Philippines, India, Japan, Malaysia, Taiwan and Europe.
- Trump’s ultimate objectives are to secure fairer trading terms and stimulate inward investment—and the strategy appears to be gaining traction.
- Countries facing the highest reciprocal tariff rates, with large surpluses vis-à-vis the US and high gross exports to GDP ratios will buckle first.
Hong Kong Market Strategy – Trade and Portfolio Ideas Amidst the Volatility
- Government stabilisation measures kick in as tariff war starts to bite
- Can the HK and China markets continue their bull run as markets dislocate?
- Is it time to selectively get back into the Chinese tech sector?
The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma – SPINDO Is Piping Hot, DigiPlus, and Malaysian Banks
- The past week saw insights on Steel Pipe Industry of Indonesia (ISSP IJ), DigiPlus Interactive (PLUS PM), and ISDN Holdings (ISDN SP).
- There were also economic insights on Thailand and the Philippines from Manu Bhaskaran and sector insights on Malaysian Banks from Victor Galliano, with RHB Bank as the top pick.
- The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma is filled with an eclectic mix of differentiated, substantive, and actionable macro and equity bottom insights from across Southeast Asia.
How Commodities React To Trumps New Global Trade Plans
- President Trump triggered turmoil in the stock and bond markets, sent shockwaves through the global economy, and claimed the U.S. would eliminate the national debt using trillions supposedly generated from his tariffs.
- Just earlier this week, he declared he wouldn’t make a zero-tariff deal with the EU — and now, without any real change in circumstances, he’s suddenly starting to back down.
- Trump dropped his country-specific tariffs down to a universal 10% rate for all trade partners except China on Wednesday – for a limited time period of 90 days – presumably to have more time to make deals with each country.
[US Crude Oil Options Weekly 2025/15] WTI Pauses Slide on Tariff Delay
- WTI futures fell 0.8% for the week ending 11/Apr, driven primarily by uncertainty around tariffs and escalating trade tensions between the U.S. and China.
- The U.S. rig count fell by seven to 583. The oil rig count dropped by nine to 480, while gas rigs grew by one to 97.
- WTI OI PCR fell to 0.80 on 11/Apr compared to 0.88 on 04/Apr. Call OI increased by 19.3% WoW, while put OI grew by 9.1%.
US Financial Markets: Unwinding of Leverage Imparts Pain and Unusual Price Action
- Elevated uncertainty about the consequences of US trade policy has imparted significant volatility on financial markets. The unwinding of leveraged positions in US equities has accentuated price declines.
- There has been turbulence for US Treasuries, but there has no change in the economic fundamentals that underpin their valuation. Unwinding of basis points trades may partially explain price movements.
- Hedge funds may also be unwinding big bets based on pending financial deregulation that would raise banks’ capacity to hold Treasuries. There is no evidence of systemic funding stress.
[US Nat Gas Options Weekly 2025/15] Henry Hub Dropped Amid Trade Turmoil and Warmer Forecasts
- For the week ending 11/Apr, U.S. natural gas prices fell by 8.1% on the back of escalating U.S.-China trade tensions and warmer weather forecasts.
- U.S. natural gas futures sharply fell on 08/April (Tue) and touched an eight-week low despite robust LNG exports.
- Henry Hub OI PCR fell to 0.95 on 11/Apr compared to 0.97 on 04/Apr. Call OI increased by 6.3% WoW, while put OI grew by 3.8%.
Real Asset Chartbook Week #3: Continued Volatility
- Lots of interesting changes over the week, especially in the 2nd half. We have had a bounce, but opportunities remain.
- Key questions that need to be considered are how much of the economic damage from a rocky tariff rollout is already priced in, how should the potential impact of tariffs on earnings be assessed, and what is your plan for deploying capital in the context of a falling market.
- Pair this week’s Real Asset Chartbook with reading Jeremy Grantham’s “Reinvesting When Terrified” and plan out your strategy for the redeployment of capital.
Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma
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