Daily Brief South Korea: Miwon Commercial, Samsung Electronics and more

In today’s briefing:

KRX H1 SSF Reshuffle: Play Setup from Last Round’s Learning Curve
Samsung Electronics’ Key Inflection Point: Lee Jae-Yong’s Final Appeal Ruling on February 3
Samsung Electronics: Trading Strategy Post Another Inheritance Tax Sale

KRX H1 SSF Reshuffle: Play Setup from Last Round’s Learning Curve

Last time, price action showed up a week early, suggesting market makers are getting ahead, likely due to learning effects.
This round’s a letdown—no KOSDAQ names and fewer plays. Still, lower-volume KOSPI names showed solid price action correlation in the last reshuffle.
This round, focus on low-volume KOSPI names, enter 5 days before the listing, and exit just before it drops, using the learning curve from the last reshuffle.

Some speculate Samsung might delay the value-up announcement until after the February 3 ruling, using it strategically to influence the verdict and align with the appeal’s outcome.
Market chatter even surrounds Samsung’s HBM test delays with NVIDIA, with some linking it to Lee Jae-yong’s February 3 appeal ruling—though it seems more like speculative conspiracy.
If Lee Jae-yong wins his appeal on February 3, it could trigger key events like value-up disclosure and HBM pass, significantly impacting Samsung’s short-term price action and positions.

In the past several years, one of the biggest risk factors on Samsung Electronics and other Samsung Group affiliates has been the huge inheritance tax payments by the Lee family.
Despite the weak share price performances of the four major Samsung Group affiliates, their consolidated equity increased by 31.4% on average from end of 2019 to end of 3Q 2024.
Once Lee family pays off the fifth installment in 2025, the market could look upon this situation more favorably due to reduced overhang associated with additional future inheritance tax payments.

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