In today’s briefing:
- Chartered Insights: Impact of Pahalgam Terrorist Attack On Markets
- New Trading Angle for Korean Market Re-Rating: Flow Gap from English IR Materials
- Japan Banks – Net Interest Income, Credit Cost, Trading Gains, All Support Profit
- Japan Morning Connection: SMCI Numbers Casts a Gloomy Shadow over All Things AI to Start Today
- #137 India Insight: India’s Export Edge, Reliance’s Haier Play, and 2.4x Surge in Quick Orders
- Fertilizing Self-Reliance: India’s Fertiliser Industry Set to Double Capacity in 2025-26
- Thematic Report: Tariffs, Global Conflicts and Earnings Effect on the Indian Market
- Themes of India: Revival of Indian Steel Industry Cycle In Q4 Feasible?
- Monday Delight: 28/04/25
- [Blue Lotus Daily]:LI US/MNSO US/601933 CH/1211 HK/1519 HK/Macro Update
Chartered Insights: Impact of Pahalgam Terrorist Attack On Markets
- The Pahalgam terrorist attack on April 25, 2025 caused a brief market correction, with the Nifty 50 falling by 0.86% which was in line with past trends.
- Historically, geopolitical shocks like the Kargil War (1999) and Pulwama attack (2019) caused minimal corrections, with the Sensex rebounding by 33% post-Kargil and 400 points in two sessions after 26/11.
- The market’s swift recovery, with the Nifty gaining 1.20% on April 28, 2025. Experts project a mild 5-10% correction if tensions escalate, followed by a return to fundamentals.
New Trading Angle for Korean Market Re-Rating: Flow Gap from English IR Materials
- The main issue with IFRS 18 is that it counts non-regular items like asset sales or FX gains as operating profit, potentially misleading investors about a company’s actual business performance.
- As the Korean market might re-rate, companies with solid English IR materials could attract more global attention, creating trading opportunities, while others might face a significant flow gap.
- As Blue Orca’s Soren Aandahl noted, small- and mid-cap stocks, especially those with English IR updates, could drive trading flows as the 2027 IFRS 18 rollout approaches.
Japan Banks – Net Interest Income, Credit Cost, Trading Gains, All Support Profit
- The story for Japan’s banks is multifaceted with several line items working in tandem to support profit and profit delta
- Net interest income strength that we see with MUFG, SMFG, Chiba and SBI Sumishin Net Bank can continue, given outlook on loans and pricing
- Delta in credit costs is generally benign, allowing good flow through, with a recurring nature of equity trading gains – a unique feature in Japan banking
Japan Morning Connection: SMCI Numbers Casts a Gloomy Shadow over All Things AI to Start Today
- Expect weakness after poor SMCI numbers sends AI related plays lower in late trading including NVDA and DELL.
- Qorvo bucking the trend with a better-then-expected outlook despite Apple uncertainty in China.
- Sony looking to spin off its semiconductor solutions business a watershed for unlocking shareholder value.
#137 India Insight: India’s Export Edge, Reliance’s Haier Play, and 2.4x Surge in Quick Orders
- As US-China tariffs surge, Indian exporters, particularly in hand tools, electronics, and home appliances, gain a unique opportunity to fulfill US orders, bolstering Indian manufacturing and export growth.
- Reliance Industries (RIL IN) acquisition push for Haier India strengthens its electronics sector presence, signaling a strategic move to compete with market leaders and diversify its consumer portfolio amid geopolitical tensions.
- Reliance Industries (RIL IN) rapid expansion of dark stores aims to enhance delivery speeds, reinforcing its position in India’s quick commerce sector with sub-30-minute delivery times and no hidden fee.
Fertilizing Self-Reliance: India’s Fertiliser Industry Set to Double Capacity in 2025-26
- Industry to add 1,298 thousand tonnes capacity in 2025-26, doubling previous year’s additions to reduce imports
- Production expected to rise 2% in 2025-26, with revival in urea output and continued growth in non-urea segment
- Revenues rise after six quarters of decline; operating profit surged 55.8% with margin expansion to 7% in Q3 2024-25
Thematic Report: Tariffs, Global Conflicts and Earnings Effect on the Indian Market
- The market rebound reflects optimism regarding global growth and domestic earnings, despite high uncertainty around global GDP, tariffs, and the US dollar.
- There is increased uncertainty in global markets due to the shifting economic order. Indian exports, especially in automobiles and IT services, may face long-term risks from higher tariffs
- The outlook for sectors like automobiles, IT services, and consumer consumption needs to be revised due to global trade tensions and weakened demand.
Themes of India: Revival of Indian Steel Industry Cycle In Q4 Feasible?
- Steelmakers are set for strong Q4 growth, with rising HRC prices and falling raw material costs boosting operating margins by INR 1,200-1,800 per tonne for steelmakers.
- Lower input costs, particularly coking coal along with GOI’s ADD will significantly improve profitability for steelmakers.
- JSW Steel Ltd (JSTL IN) , Jindal Steel & Power (JSP IN) , Tata Steel Ltd (TATA IN), Steel Authority of India (SAIL IN) expects surge in PAT upto 700%.
Monday Delight: 28/04/25
- Each week, I’ll share five intriguing investment ideas that recently caught my attention.
- These ideas are meant to spark your research and help you kickstart the week ahead with fresh insights.
- Because these ideas are the result of my first-level idea generation process, they require more in depth research. Therefore, the ideas will often be concise, with occasional references to valuable work from other practitioners that I encourage you to explore.
[Blue Lotus Daily]:LI US/MNSO US/601933 CH/1211 HK/1519 HK/Macro Update
- Macro Update: NDRC Reiterates Incremental Policies Are in Preparation (+)
- LI US: Li Auto Announces Free Charging and Road Rescue Services for May Holiday(-)
- MNSO US/601933 CH:Yonghui Superstores 1Q25 Revenue and Net Profit Decline 19% and 80% YoY(-/-)
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