Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Copper Market Stress Test: TC/RC Collapse and Its Implications for Miners and more

• Copper treatment and refining charges have collapsed from ~$80/ton in 2023 to around –$40/ton by mid-2025, meaning smelters are effectively paying to process concentrate.
• Smelter Cutbacks: Persistent margin losses have triggered curtailments and shutdowns across major smelters in China, Japan, and Southeast Asia, removing an estimated 1.3–1.5 Mtpa of refined capacity.
• With refined supply under strain, low exchange stocks, and surging Asian premiums, the market risks flipping into a structural deficit—setting the stage for further upside in copper prices into 2026.

• The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.4% to close above 46,000 for the first time, gaining over 600 points on job market weakness. 
• Key movers: Circle +17.6%, Synopsys +13%, Lam Research +7.7%. Oracle -6%. Adobe (+2.7% aft. mkt) on revenue / EPS beat. 
• Japan M&A activity accelerated: major deals including Idemitsu’s ¥26bn Fuji Oil acquisition and Hakuhodo DY’s ¥36bn TOB for Digital Holdings

• Switching to contrarian investments in commodities that are currently out of favor such as coal and lithium
• Strategy involves looking for companies with large, low cost sources of supply and positioning for long-term potential
• Portfolio approach taken to invest in a few select names in the commodity sector, with a focus on companies with potential for future growth and value upside

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

• China’s steel exports have surged to multi-year highs, flooding global markets and forcing a wave of trade-defense actions across Asia.
• Weak domestic demand, squeezed margins, and policy shifts have pushed Chinese mills to lean heavily on exports — prompting Beijing to cap output and link cuts to carbon goals.
• Clear winners: Integrated Indian producers and Japan/Korea premium mills, which gain pricing power and margin upside as safeguards and curbs tighten supply.

• Breakout move higher for Lam Research should add some more zest to TEL which continues to lag.
• Sandisk 14% as NAND heats up, but has Kioxia gone too far with huge blocks probably not too far off.
• US Eco data cements expectations for a Sep cut sending rates down and home builders up.

• OCBC’s Lim raises Nanofilm’s fair value to 79 cents, citing uncertain outlook.
• Brokers’ Digest: Suntec REIT, BRC Asia, YZJ Financial, CNMC Goldmine, Prime US REIT.
• Maybank and DBS lift Sea Limited target prices due to higher Shopee take-rates.

• Australians are never far away from two of the most discussed secular thematics; housing and aging demographics, two long-term trends which can throw up attractive investment opportunities.
• GemLife Communities Group ((GLF)) which arrived at the ASX via the largest initial public offering of the year to date with an upsized and oversubscribed deal, raised $750m and listed with a market capitalisation near $1.6bn.
• The market cap currently stands at $1.75bn and the newcomer was highlighted as one of the top smaller cap performers during the August reporting season.

• After a challenging last decade, Broadcom is back on track with positive earnings results and a new customer for their custom ASIC business
• CEO Hawk Tan’s confident and clear communication during the earnings call led to a significant stock price increase
• AMD’s stock was down as investors may view Broadcom’s success as a potential threat to their position as a second source alternative to Nvidia in the market

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

• SYF quarterly credit metrics is a sign of well improving consumer credit metrics
• Credit costs are moving lower, in all quarters from June 2024 to June 2025
• Total LLR coverage of loans remains high, NCO are shrinking: all is +ve

• Drugs & pharmaceuticals industry’s export growth to slow down in 2025-26
• Eveready Industries (India)’s sales up by 7.1% in June 2025 quarter
• Wires & cables industry’s sales grow by 22.6% in June 2025 quarter