Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Ohayo Japan | AMD Hits OpenAI Jackpot and more

• AI momentum and chip optimism drove fresh record highs for Nasdaq and S&P 500, as resilient markets looked past the US shutdown toward Fed guidance and rate-cut hopes
• JP equities price in policy-led cycle under Takaichi – AI hardware, cybersecurity, nuclear, defence themes leading. Weaker yen / fiscal support to benefit exporters / cyclicals.
• Expect further buying in Takaichi “names.” Nikkei trend is bullish but short-term overbought. Strong open likely given overnight NKY futures

• Outperforming memory and NVDA takes a break while semi-cap and AMD related surge.
• Wafer names continue to rise with Siltronic +9.2% taking gains to 85% since mid-Sep. Sumco, Shin Etsu and maybe even Tokuyama in focus.
• EssilorLuxottica took its Nikon stake up to 10.8% yesterday, but now reports it has approval to take this to 20%. Can squeeze a lot more.

• Discussion on the shift of Chinese startups towards targeting the global market instead of just China
• Analysis of ByteDance’s financial results showing international revenue growth but slowing profit margin
• Focus on the impact of Deep Seek and AI startups in China’s tech landscape, as well as coverage of other tech developments in Asia by The Information

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• US Government shutdown delays September jobs report, impacting Fed policy decisions
• Markets largely unfazed by shutdown, focusing on structural drivers such as interest rates and earnings forecast
• OpenAI’s ChatGPT integration with Shopify and Etsy may signal a shift in marketplace model, impacting revenue and customer touchpoints

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• India’s systemic credit is projected to grow 13–15% CAGR (FY25–FY28), with NBFCs’ share rising to 22%, driven by retail and SME lending.
• Tata Capital, 3rd largest diversified NBFC, manages INR 2.33 lakh crore AUM across 1,516 branches in 27 states, spanning retail, SME, and corporate finance.
• Backed by Tata’s 150-year legacy, Tata Capital offers 25+ loan products, strong phygital distribution (digital + 1,516 branches, 21.9M app downloads), and low GNPA (1.9% FY25).

• Central Banks added 15t of gold to their reserves, resuming buying after a hiatus in July. Seven banks added and two banks sold.
• China clocked tenth sequential monthly increase in adding gold to its reserves. Despite that, gold represents only 7% of China’s total international reserves.
• Poland, the largest central bank gold buyer YTD 2025 announced that it raised its gold target from 20% to 30%.

• The Indian automobile industry experienced a significant boost in sales in September 2025, driven by delayed purchases and the positive effects of GST reductions.
• The increase in retail sales highlights a strong recovery in the sector, which is expected to continue into October as the full impact of the GST cuts becomes clear.
• The sector’s strong performance and high consumer demand suggest a positive outlook for the coming months, with several key OEMs set for sustained growth.

• Discussion of major gold news in the market, including departures at Barrick and Newmont and China’s involvement
• Interview with Jeff Quartermain about Perseus’s journey in the gold market and his decision to step down
• Comparison of valuation landscape during Quartermain’s tenure at Perseus with current challenges in acquiring projects at a reasonable cost

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• RISC-V allows for design and implementation locally, compliant to global standards, with specifications available under Creative Commons and no licensing fees
• RISC-V’s customizable architecture, with a small core base ISA and various extensions, enables workload optimized silicon for different applications such as AI, ML, and vector processing
• Recent highlights include the availability of the RBA23 profile specification for high-performing application processors, Nvidia’s adoption of RISC-V for CUDA porting, and Infineon’s announcement of an all RISC-V automotive microcontroller roadmap, showcasing the growing momentum of RISC-V across various industries.

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• If all of the publicly announced sovereign AI initiatives come to pass, they could account for upwards of $1 trillion in AI infrastructure spending through 2030
• For now, “sovereign” AI means mostly means made in the USA. However, there a growing demand for “sovereign” AI from China, particularly among countries disillusioned by the US trade wars
• In general AI infrastructure, the US is outspending China six to one in 2025. Could one be spending too much and the other spending too little? Let’s see…