In today’s briefing:
- Ohayo Japan | Inflation Cools; AI Warms Up
- Overview of My Winners and Losers in 2025…and 5 High Conviction Ideas Going Into 2026
- India’s Kavach 4.0: The ₹50,000 Crore Safety Boom Enters High-Gear
- Asia Real Estate Tracker (18-Dec-2025): Tokyo, Yokohama acquire over 1,000 homes by 2025.
- PSU Banks Vs Private Banks: Who Is Winning?
- SEBI MF Regulations 2026: Expectations Vs. Reality
- China & HK Industrials: EM’s Key Overweight Grows Stronger
- Tech Supply Chain Tracker (19-Dec-2025): Amazon Unifies AGI, Silicon, and Quantum Projects
- Exencial Industry Tidings 18/12/2025
Ohayo Japan | Inflation Cools; AI Warms Up
- US stocks rebounded, with the Nasdaq up 1.4%, as softer inflation and lower jobless claims boosted risk appetite and reinforced expectations for lower interest rates in 2026.
- Micron surged 10% after issuing an upbeat revenue outlook, helping revive the artificial intelligence trade after recent weakness.
- Asahi shares fell 6% after a $3bn Diageo Africa deal, with investors worried about overpayment and leverage concerns, despite attractive growth, margins and long-term strategic benefits.
Overview of My Winners and Losers in 2025…and 5 High Conviction Ideas Going Into 2026
- The 2025 vintage of “5 High Conviction Ideas” showed a positive return for all five picks.
- Our best performer was Arras Minerals (ARK CN), which was up +150%, closely followed by Solaris Resources (SLS CN), which gained 139% for the year.
- Our 2025 vintage was heavily copper-focused, our 2026 new favorite list is more diverse across sectors and regions.
India’s Kavach 4.0: The ₹50,000 Crore Safety Boom Enters High-Gear
- Indian Railways has officially commissioned the upgraded Kavach 4.0 on 738 route km, featuring advanced location accuracy and direct integration with modern electronic interlocking systems.
- His rollout enables safe 160 kmph operations on high-density corridors while standardizing the technology required to cover India’s entire 68,000 km rail network by 2030.
- The shift to Version 4.0 has consolidated the market, creating a massive revenue visibility of INR 50,000 crore for certified leaders like HBL Engineering and Kernex Microsystems.
Asia Real Estate Tracker (18-Dec-2025): Tokyo, Yokohama acquire over 1,000 homes by 2025.
- Tokyo and Yokohama are planning to acquire more than 1,000 homes by the year 2025, indicating a major investment in the residential real estate market.
- Acrophyte is set to purchase the management company of Suntec REIT from ESR for a substantial sum of $147 million, highlighting ongoing activity in the real estate sector.
- The 12th Asia Property Awards celebrated significant achievements in real estate, recognizing key contributors and innovators in the Greater China region.
PSU Banks Vs Private Banks: Who Is Winning?
- Private Banks captured market share as PSUs lose 300 bps to their private peers on deposits side.
- Public Banks lead the high-value loan sprint, growing at 15% yoy versus Private Banks’ slower 5%.
- The fight for funding is critical, highlighted by Public Banks’ higher reliance on households at 70%.
SEBI MF Regulations 2026: Expectations Vs. Reality
- The market witnessed a relief rally after SEBI’s December 17 verdict, ending months of uncertainty regarding mutual fund fee structures,.
- Unlike the harsh cuts expected, SEBI excluded taxes from expense limits and retained research bundling, protecting the industry’s core margins.
- With regulatory risks now priced in, the market focus returns to fundamentals, although persistent foreign investor outflows remain a challenge.
China & HK Industrials: EM’s Key Overweight Grows Stronger
- Active conviction rising: China Industrials allocations are nearing all-time highs, with record participation and expanding net overweights despite a declining MSCI EM benchmark weight.
- Clear conviction overweight: 76% of GEM funds are overweight China & HK Industrials, making it the strongest country/sector conviction play across the EM universe.
- Broadening beyond CATL: While CATL remains dominant, ownership is widening to emerging names, even as second-tier stocks show sharper rotations and selective positioning.
Tech Supply Chain Tracker (19-Dec-2025): Amazon Unifies AGI, Silicon, and Quantum Projects
- Amazon has unified its AGI, silicon, and quantum projects under Peter DeSantis to enhance innovation.
- Taiwan’s PCB industry is thriving, with an expected 11% growth in 2025 due to AI server demand.
- Google’s TorchTPU project aims to improve TPUs’ compatibility with PyTorch, boosting AI development.
Exencial Industry Tidings 18/12/2025
- Centre urged to increase procurement of parboiled rice from Odisha to 2.5 MMT
- Tata Sons invests additional Rs.15 billion in its electronics business
- Tractor exports rebound, set to cross 100,000 units in 2025
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