In today’s briefing:
- Ohayo Japan | Nvidia Beats
- From Rust to Riches: The Next Copper Boom
- Japan Morning Connection: NVDA Numbers and Tariffs Blocked by US Trade Court Sending Futures Higher
- [IO Fundamentals 2025/21] Cautious Stimulus, Economic Recalibration & Inventory Insights
- BAIC Enters Indian Commercial Vehicle Market – Implications
- Furniture/Furnishings Weekly – Housing Affordability, Home Size on the Decline
- Last Orders? GEM Funds Retreat from Alcoholic Beverages Stocks
- Crypto Hustle
Ohayo Japan | Nvidia Beats
- On Wednesday, the S&P 500 fell 0.56% to 5,888.55 as investors awaited Nvidia’s earnings
- After the close, Nvidia reported Q1 revenue of $44.1 billion, beating expectations
- Mitsubishi Heavy Industries reported a robust order backlog exceeding 10,000 billion yen, doubling pre-pandemic levels
From Rust to Riches: The Next Copper Boom
- Declining Chinese inventory and rising premiums bode well for the copper price.
- Speculative interest, as per the COT reports, is low, providing room for new buyers.
- Infrastructure and defence spending are on the rise in most regions of the world
Japan Morning Connection: NVDA Numbers and Tariffs Blocked by US Trade Court Sending Futures Higher
- NVDA numbers were inline, but Blackwell rollout and outlook for further sovereign expansion sets bullish tone.
- HP numbers point to bleak demand for PC’s due to rising import costs and a slower economy
- Rohm +13% as its switches to a more AI focused bucket + NKY potential.
[IO Fundamentals 2025/21] Cautious Stimulus, Economic Recalibration & Inventory Insights
- PBoC reduced one-year and five-year loan prime rates to 3.0% and 3.5%, respectively, marking a careful step amid ongoing U.S. trade tensions.
- Xu Lin proposed a 4% annual growth target to address demographic and structural challenges, advocating structural reforms and private sector engagement.
- Iron ore inventories at Chinese ports fell in the third week of May, primarily due to reduced arrivals of new shipments.
BAIC Enters Indian Commercial Vehicle Market – Implications
- Beiqi Foton Motor Co Ltd A (600166 CH), via Energy In Motion, marks Baic Motor Corp Ltd H (1958 HK)’s electric truck entry in India targeting heavy-duty logistics.
- In this insight we attempt to identify implications on existing players like Ashok Leyland (AL IN), Tata Motors Ltd (TTMT IN) , Mahindra & Mahindra (MM IN) and others.
- Ravindra Energy’s INR 180 crore equity raise appears to have been a strategic precursor, providing funding to support infrastructure and operational rollout of electric commercial vehicles in partnership with Foton.
Furniture/Furnishings Weekly – Housing Affordability, Home Size on the Decline
- Furniture and furnishings stocks were down, along with the rest of the market, as Moody’s downgraded US debt on concerns over expanding deficits and higher interest rates, exacerbated by concerns that the administration’s proposed budget could significantly increase total federal debt, and continued concern over the fate of tariffs and US trade policy.
- The WTR Commercial/Contract Furniture Index declined 4.5%, the Residential Manufacturers & Suppliers Index fell 2.6%, and the Home Goods Retailers Index was down 8.5% in a week where the broader indices (2.7%) and the R2K (3.1%) were down by low single digits.
- Less for more when it comes to housing according to the WSJ (1). Houses in the US are starting to get at least a bit smaller on the margin in the post-pandemic period (Figure 1), perhaps signaling the end (or at least a pause) in the trend toward larger homes that has been in place throughout the post-war era as families increasingly moved out of the cities and into the suburbs.
Last Orders? GEM Funds Retreat from Alcoholic Beverages Stocks
- Alcoholic Beverages sector exposure has dropped to multi-year lows, falling below 50% of active GEM funds.
- Recent outflows total $700m, with China & HK and Brazil seeing the steepest declines.
- Key stocks like Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye Yibin face consistent month-on-month closures as managers rotate out.
Crypto Hustle
This week, we review the troubled history of Gryphon Digital Mining (GRYP), the reverse-merger partner of Hut 8’s (HUT) new spin-off, American Bitcoin, soon to trade on Nasdaq as ABTC.
HUT will own 80% of the spin-off. GRYP is the junior partner in the deal; its shareholders get 2% of the spin-off.
But there is magic somewhere in the numbers: based on GRYP’s own current market cap, the 2% allocation implies a valuation for American Bitcoin that is more than twice the current market cap for all of HUT—even though most of its ABTC’s operations are still currently contained in HUT as a majority owned subsidiary.
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