In today’s briefing:
- Ohayo Japan | Nvidia – Record High
- Coatue Doubles Down On An AI Supercycle @ EMW 2025
- Thematic Report: Tyre Industry ~ What’s Next For India’s Struggling Giants?
- India’s Paper Industry Under Siege: Why Urgent Anti-Dumping Action Is Critical to Save Jobs.
- Adani Blueprint to 2030: Brick by Brick, Billion by Billion
- Low Bar, High Bounce: China’s Consumer Comeback
- Thematic Report- India’s Fertilizer Sector: Navigating Global Volatility and Domestic Imperatives
- What’s New(s) in Amsterdam
Ohayo Japan | Nvidia – Record High
- Stocks ended mixed Wednesday as the Nasdaq rose 0.3% on a 4.3% surge in Nvidia
- Nintendo will hold its fifth lottery sale for the Switch 2 console in early July, with products arriving after September.
- 3D Investment Partners, a Singapore-based activist fund, disclosed it held 10.87% of Square Enix Holdings shares
Coatue Doubles Down On An AI Supercycle @ EMW 2025
- Cloud 2025 CapEx consensus increased 70% from January 2024 to the present day $365 billion
- Google page views declined 8% since the launch of ChatGPT
- Apart from the Mag7, Coatue is heavily focusing investment on companies involved in AI-required power delivery, AI software and AI semiconductors
Thematic Report: Tyre Industry ~ What’s Next For India’s Struggling Giants?
- India’s tyre market is expected to grow at 6–7% volume CAGR, yet raw material volatility like the 33% rubber price spike in FY24 has squeezed margins across the board.
- Managements acknowledge EBITDA margin pressure, but cite strategic inventory, revised capex, and sourcing shifts to mitigate further contraction.
- Looking ahead, leaders remain cautiously optimistic, expecting stable RM costs in Q1FY26, export growth at 10–11% CAGR, and EV-related demand to accelerate medium-term recovery.
India’s Paper Industry Under Siege: Why Urgent Anti-Dumping Action Is Critical to Save Jobs.
- India’s paper imports hit a record 2.05 million tonnes in FY25, doubling over four years due to FTAs and zero-duty access for low-cost producers.
- Domestic mills are shutting down as predatory imports undermine a sector vital to rural jobs, sustainability, and national development goals like Clean India and education.
- With policy momentum building post-PAPEXPO 2025 and past success of anti-dumping duties, trade protection for paper now appears not just likely but urgent.
Adani Blueprint to 2030: Brick by Brick, Billion by Billion
- Adani Group has announced a record-breaking $15–20 billion annual capex plan, the country’s largest private renewable energy park, and a full-scale digital infrastructure push via green-powered data centers.
- These projects consolidate Adani’s leadership in infrastructure, energy, logistics, and digital transformation, sectors critical to India’s long-term GDP and employment growth.
- With execution backed by strong balance sheet discipline and sectoral synergies, Adani’s strategy presents a long-duration value creation model beyond short-term market narratives.
Low Bar, High Bounce: China’s Consumer Comeback
- A big structural change to underpin consumer demand goes unnoticed
- Efforts to prop up retail sales this year have had the desired effect
- We change up the members of the original consumer basket
Thematic Report- India’s Fertilizer Sector: Navigating Global Volatility and Domestic Imperatives
- Fertilizer imports fell 44 % in May as Iran-Red Sea shocks inflated DAP/MOP landed costs; India fast-tracks ADD, green-ammonia deals.
- Tight DAP stocks, INR 1.8-trn subsidy exposure and Kharif timing put food-security, fiscal targets and agri-input inflation squarely at risk.
- Sector outlook swings from price-led recovery to supply-chain resilience play, favouring firms with domestic feedstock, nano-fertilizer IP and diversified import pacts.
What’s New(s) in Amsterdam
- Yesterday, the Court of Appeal of Arnhem-Leeuwarden ruled that online grocery delivery companies like e.g., Picnic and Flink, must comply with the collective labour agreement (CLA) for the supermarket sector.
- The court determined that businesses selling supermarket products online and physically handling, sorting, and delivering them to consumers are effectively operating as (virtual) supermarkets.
- Therefore, they fall under the same labor regulations as traditional supermarkets.
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