In today’s briefing:
- Ohayo Japan | Trump Announces 24% Tariffs on Japan
- Thematic Report: Cooling India- Indian Air Conditioner (AC) Industry
- Thematic Report : India–US Trade; Assessing the Impact of Reciprocal Tariffs on Indian Exports
- Japan Morning Connection: Trump’s Tariff Shock Set to Roil Japan with a 10% + 24% Baseline
- US Banks – Average YoY Loan Growth During 1Q25 Weeks Is 33% Higher than During Weeks in 1Q24
- How the ₹23K Cr PLI Scheme Benefits EMS Companies – Dixon, Amber, and Kaynes
- ₹4.02 Lakh Crore IPO Lock-In Expiry Wave in H1 2025 in Indian Markets
- #130 India Insight: Textile Aims $100B Exports, Wind Energy Hits 48.5 GW, Data Centers Reach $10B
- Furniture/Furnishings Weekly – GenAI and Knowledge Worker Productivity
Ohayo Japan | Trump Announces 24% Tariffs on Japan
- U.S. & Nikkei stock futures fell as much as 2.5%, signaling a weak Thursday open. After hours, Nvidia, Amazon, and Tesla dropped over 4%.
- The U.S. will impose a 10% baseline tariff on all imports, with Japan facing a 24% tariff as part of measures targeting what President Trump called “bad actors”
- Fast Retailing’s domestic Uniqlo same-store sales, including e-commerce, rose 12% year-on-year in March
Thematic Report: Cooling India- Indian Air Conditioner (AC) Industry
- India’s RAC market is growing at 18–20% CAGR, but faces a critical compressor supply shortage due to capacity constraints and BIS-related import delays.
- Short-Term risks around component supply, margins, and inventory exist, but structural demand drivers and PLI-driven localization present long-term tailwinds for OEMs and component makers.
- Despite near-term volatility, AC sector remains a strong structural story; focus shifts to players with scale, backward integration, and policy-aligned manufacturing strategies.
Thematic Report : India–US Trade; Assessing the Impact of Reciprocal Tariffs on Indian Exports
- India’s thriving trade relationship with the US has come under scrutiny following the announcement of the Reciprocal Tariff Plan by the US administration.
- As the world’s largest economy considers levelling tariff imbalances with trade partners, India — despite enjoying a trade surplus — faces only moderate risk.
- Here’s a detailed look into the numbers, categories, and sectors that matter
Japan Morning Connection: Trump’s Tariff Shock Set to Roil Japan with a 10% + 24% Baseline
- Definitely a worse outcome than expected, but Canada and Mexico exemptions show the path to negotiation.
- Firms with Vietnam manufacturing hit hard, as well as Apple given its exposure to Chinese manufacturing.
- Nintendo’s Switch2 has taken a big step up – but without the big titles is it enough to spark a replacement cycle?
US Banks – Average YoY Loan Growth During 1Q25 Weeks Is 33% Higher than During Weeks in 1Q24
- US banks report weekly balance sheets, and the data is an good gauge for what we can expect during 1Q25 for profit, and especially core income, at least directionally.
- The most recent loan growth data is now even stronger than before, and this is what matters: the weekly data is accelerating.
- The pace of weekly YoY growth now is 2.7% during 1Q25 while this was 2.0% during 1Q24, the second derivative is also improving vastly, now up 33% YoY
How the ₹23K Cr PLI Scheme Benefits EMS Companies – Dixon, Amber, and Kaynes
- India has launched a ₹23,000 crore PLI scheme for electronic components, targeting sub-assemblies, PCBs, and lithium-ion cells to boost local manufacturing and reduce import dependence.
- EMS leaders like Dixon, Amber, and Kaynes are accelerating backward integration through JVs, capex, and high-value component manufacturing, unlocking margin expansion and strategic insulation from global supply chain disruptions. I
- India’s PCB production is just 8% of its ₹236 bn market, where PLI-backed players like Amber and Kaynes could scale rapidly as import substitution gains momentum
₹4.02 Lakh Crore IPO Lock-In Expiry Wave in H1 2025 in Indian Markets
- By June 2025, shares worth INR 4.02 trillion across 73 IPOs will become tradeable post lock-in expiry, including major names like Hyundai, Swiggy, and NTPC Green.
- This massive unlock could flood markets with fresh float, increasing supply dramatically and potentially causing short-term price corrections, especially in already weak or overvalued stocks.
- Investors should prepare for near-term volatility but also watch for dips in strong businesses as potential accumulation opportunities once initial selling pressure subsides.
#130 India Insight: Textile Aims $100B Exports, Wind Energy Hits 48.5 GW, Data Centers Reach $10B
- Kaynes Technology India (KAYNES IN) Semicon to deliver India’s first packaged semiconductor chips by July 2025, supported by a multi-year deal.
- Bank Of America (BAC US) expects RBI to cut the repo rate to 6% in April, with a target of 5.5% by year-end.
- Vadilal Industries (VDI IN) settles promoter dispute, plans leadership restructuring and board reconstitution to improve governance and growth.
Furniture/Furnishings Weekly – GenAI and Knowledge Worker Productivity
- Tariff uncertainty, inflation, and deteriorating consumer confidence all are weighing on the market and furniture and furnishings stocks.
- The WTR Commercial/Contract Furniture Index was up 1.6% during a week, while the Residential Manufacturers & Suppliers Index (-0.4%), the Home Goods Retailers Index (-7.1%), and the broader markets (-3.2% to -4.3%) were all down.
- AI-generated code is playing an increasingly important role in software engineering according to YC CEO Gary Tan (1).
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