In today’s briefing:
- Thematic Report : The Rise of Domestic Capital in Indian Equities: Ownership, Breadth, and Maturity
- Japan Weekly Strategy | a Week to Forget
- #131 India Insight: ITC’s 3.5k Paper Unit Acquisition, GOI 4% AMP Gas Hike, HAL’s Huge Defence Win
- AUCTUS ON FRIDAY – 04/04/2025
- Semi Revenues: Feb-25 Revenues Are Good. Let’s Have a Look Back at 2008-09 for a Worst-Case Scenario
Thematic Report : The Rise of Domestic Capital in Indian Equities: Ownership, Breadth, and Maturity
- For the first time since 2006, individual investors—through both direct holdings and mutual fund participation—now collectively own a larger share of the Indian stock market than foreign portfolio investors (FPIs).
- This milestone reflects not just a cyclical trend but a fundamental shift in market ownership, behaviour, and breadth of participation.
- Driven by sustained SIP flows, government disinvestments, regulatory changes, and the broad underperformance of large-cap names, Indian investors are now not just participants, but market shapers.
Japan Weekly Strategy | a Week to Forget
- The Nikkei 225 fell 9%, while the Topix slumped 10%, capping one of the worst weekly showings in recent memory
- President Donald Trump’s “surprise” escalation of trade measures—including proposed 25% duties on Japanese car imports and 24% on other goods—sent shockwaves through equity markets
- Investors should hunt for companies with domestic resilience, pricing power, and strong governance
#131 India Insight: ITC’s 3.5k Paper Unit Acquisition, GOI 4% AMP Gas Hike, HAL’s Huge Defence Win
- ITC Ltd (ITC IN) acquires Aditya Birla’s pulp & paper unit in an all-cash INR 3,498 Cr deal, boosting its market dominance in specialty paperboards and 60% capacity expansion.
- GOI hikes APM gas rates by 4% after two years, making CNG and piped cooking gas costlier, impacting households and transport.
- Hindustan Aeronautics (HNAL IN) signs India’s biggest defence deal of Rs. 62,700 Cr to supply 156 Light Combat Helicopters, sending its stock soaring 7%.
AUCTUS ON FRIDAY – 04/04/2025
- Pulsar Helium (PLSR LN/CN)C; Target price of £0.85 per share: Starting helium well test at Topaz – Well-testing activities at Jetstream #1 and Jetstream #2 at the Topaz project have started.
- Well-testing activities are expected to occur in two sequential phases, the initial phase will focus on flow testing at the Jetstream #1 and Jetstream #2 appraisal wells, followed by a second phase of extended pressure build-up monitoring.
- The initial phase of flow testing is expected to continue over approximately four weeks.
Semi Revenues: Feb-25 Revenues Are Good. Let’s Have a Look Back at 2008-09 for a Worst-Case Scenario
- Global Semi revenues are good, up 17% YoY, on a plateau of high growth (~20%) for the 14th month. But worries about potential tariffs have boosted demand since Nov-24.
- Building up precautionary inventory ahead of tariffs could morph into the opposite from April-25: if you now expect demand destruction, you’ll squeezing down inventories as much as possible.
- This is where the 2008-9 period is instructive. Semi revenues contracted by an average -20% YoY for a long period of 12 months (Nov-08 to Oct-09).
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