In today’s briefing:
- Ibiden: From Cyclical Supplier to Core AI Infrastructure Enabler
- BOK’s Oct Rate Cut Playing Out as a Small/Mid-Cap Re-Rating Narrative in Korea
- StubHub (STUB US): Delayed but Strong Global & US Index Inclusion
- Volatility Cones Spotlight Hedging in Tencent (700 HK) And More
- Intel Lands $5 Billion Boost From NVIDIA: The AI Deal Shaking Wall Street!
Ibiden: From Cyclical Supplier to Core AI Infrastructure Enabler
- Ibiden is transitioning from a cyclical electronics supplier to a core AI infrastructure enabler, with Nvidia-linked package substrates at the heart of its growth strategy.
- Management expects AI substrate demand to nearly double in FY25 and is targeting a 150% production increase by 2027, underpinned by the Ono plant ramp from next month.
- Despite ~18–19% EPS/EBITDA CAGR through FY27 and margins comparable to high-premium peers, Ibiden still trades at mid-tier multiples (21× forward P/E, ~6× EV/EBITDA), leaving scope for re-rating.
BOK’s Oct Rate Cut Playing Out as a Small/Mid-Cap Re-Rating Narrative in Korea
- Korea’s structural value gap favors low-PBR, improving-ROE small/mid-caps; traders front-run early movers into the Oct 23 MPC, then rotate into these smaller names as the rate cut nears.
- BOK’s key MPC meetings are Oct 23 and Nov 27, with markets pricing in a 25bps cut on Oct 23 to close the policy rate gap with the Fed.
- Locals are screening for low-PBR (<0.8), ROE >8%, mid-small caps (KRW 300B–1T); 28 names fit, primed to ride the early rate-cut rally pre-MPC.
StubHub (STUB US): Delayed but Strong Global & US Index Inclusion
- StubHub Holdings (STUB US) went public on 17 September at an offer price of $23.50. It closed at $18.46 on 19 September, implying a company valuation of $6.8bn.
- StubHub Holdings (STUB US) is expected to be added to US TMI at the December 2025 review.
- The security is expected to be added to other US and Global indices in 2026, following the lock-up expiry that raises free float and public voting rights above minimum thresholds.
Volatility Cones Spotlight Hedging in Tencent (700 HK) And More
- Context: Volatility cones provide a straightforward framework to evaluate whether options are trading cheap or rich.
- Highlights: Implied volatility has broadly risen across most, but not all, HK stocks. Front-month expiries remain historically cheap amid a steepening curve. Opportunities endure, though fewer than in recent weeks.
- Why Read: Spot opportunities, assess regime shifts, and manage risk effectively — volatility cones turn complex data into actionable insights for traders and investors.
Intel Lands $5 Billion Boost From NVIDIA: The AI Deal Shaking Wall Street!
- Intel is suddenly at the center of a high-stakes drama.
- Just this month, the Trump administration reversed its public criticism of CEO Lip Bu Tan—who had been accused of being “conflicted” due to his past China ties—and moved into “constructive discussions” about a possible government equity stake in the company .
- That shift followed a White House meeting that apparently reset the tone, with Trump calling Tan’s journey “amazing” after once demanding his resignation .
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