In today’s briefing:
- Asia base oils demand outlook: Week of 12 May
- Klarna IPO Valuation Analysis: Don’t Expect a Premium Multiple Relative to Affirm Holdings
- Affirm Holdings Inc. (AFRM) Financial Factsheet – Growth, Valuation & Peers
- Will the India/Pakistan Conflict Push Cotton Prices Higher?
- BBLG: Expense Control Key as Trials Continue
- Zephyr Energy Plc (AIM: ZPHR): Private equity funding unlocks growth in the Williston and provides external validation
- DWTX: Phase 2b Trial in Chemotherapy Induced Neuropathic Pain Underway
- GMGI’s leverage ratio is down to 2Q24 levels & since the consummation of the Meridianbet transaction
- BSEM: Growth Continues to Impress
- PLX: First Quarter Results
Asia base oils demand outlook: Week of 12 May
- Asia’s base oils demand likely to ease as signs of weaker-than-expected lube consumption incentivize blenders to trim inventory levels.
- Prospect of seasonal slowdown in consumption starting in a few weeks would coincide with expected completion of wave of plant maintenance work, boosting supply.
- Firm base oils margins, prospect of weaker fundamentals and low crude oil prices add to incentive to procure sufficient volumes just to meet term commitments.
Klarna IPO Valuation Analysis: Don’t Expect a Premium Multiple Relative to Affirm Holdings
- Klarna, a leading BNPL player in Europe, will try to push ahead with IPO in the second half of the year. The fintech unicorn plans to raise up to ~$1B.
- Klarna picked a not great time to take the company public, keeping in mind negative impact of Trump’s tariffs on BNPL players in the U.S. and European Union.
- I believe the company may price its IPO above last round valuation of ~$6.7B led by Sequoia Capital, Silver Lake, CPPIB, and Mubadala Investment Company, among others.
Affirm Holdings Inc. (AFRM) Financial Factsheet – Growth, Valuation & Peers
- AFRM posted solid Q3 2025 results with revenue growing of 35.9% YOY and in line with its stated guidance range. The adjusted operating income margin expanded by ~850 bps YOY.
- Q425 guidance was muted with implied revenue growth of 26% at the mid-point. This is much lower compared to 40.7%, 46.6% and 35.9% growth during Q1, Q2 and Q3 2025.
- AFRM’s valuation remains rich at 5.1x 2025E P/B and 25.2x 2025E P/E multiple, at a premium to the peer group average. This caps any meaningful upside from the current levels.
Will the India/Pakistan Conflict Push Cotton Prices Higher?
- YTD our absolute return strategy is up 10,2% Will the India/Pakistan Conflict Push Cotton Prices Higher?
- India is an important exporting and producing country of cotton.
- According to the latest USDA data, India is the second-largest cotton producer behind China.
BBLG: Expense Control Key as Trials Continue
- Bone Biologics is pursuing a better and more effective way of dealing with back pain requiring surgery by developing bone regeneration in spinal fusion using the recombinant human protein known as NELL-1/DBX, or NB1.
- The company released its 1Q2025 financial results that showed good cash, low debt and good cost controls.
- The company continues with human trials, and we are looking forward to the initial results.
Zephyr Energy Plc (AIM: ZPHR): Private equity funding unlocks growth in the Williston and provides external validation
- • Zephyr has secured a US$100 mm drilling funding agreement with a US private equity firm to enable growth in its non-operated asset portfolio in the Williston Basin.
- The structure appears to be similar to a “DrillCo”, in which the investor will fund up to 100% of Zephyr’s drillex on a case by case basis.
- The agreement covers drilling on future well acquisitions but also could apply to new wells proposed on the Zephyr’s existing acreage.
DWTX: Phase 2b Trial in Chemotherapy Induced Neuropathic Pain Underway
- On May 8, 2025, Dogwood Therapeutics, Inc. announced financial results for the first quarter of 2025 and provided a business update.
- The company recently commenced a Phase 2b trial of Halneuron for the treatment of Chemotherapy Induced Neuropathic Pain (CINP).
- An interim data readout is expected in the fourth quarter of 2025.
GMGI’s leverage ratio is down to 2Q24 levels & since the consummation of the Meridianbet transaction
- GMGI’s leverage ratio is down to 2Q24 levels & since the consummation of the Meridianbet transaction, GMGI has reduced the consideration payable to Meridianbet’s former owners to ~$34.9m from $70.0m, through payments in cash and shares.
- GMGI ended 1Q25 with cash and equivalents just shy of $30m to support growth initiatives, including strategic M&A and share repurchases.
- GMGI expects full-year 2025 revenue of $190m-$195m, up about 26% to 29% y/y, as it continues to invest in technology, content and new licenses to drive growth and shareholder value.
BSEM: Growth Continues to Impress
- BioStem Technologies is a leading innovator focused on harnessing the natural properties of perinatal tissue in the development, manufacture, and commercialization of allografts for regenerative therapies.
- The company announced its 1Q2025 preliminary financial results.
- The company continues to execute at a high level by posting record 1Q revenue and continued growth in earnings.
PLX: First Quarter Results
- Protalix is a clinical and commercial pharmaceutical company using its proprietary ProCellEx plant-based expression system to pro duce thera peutic proteins for global markets.
- The company has two commer cialized products, Elelyso that is marketed by Fiocruz in Brazil & Pfizer in the rest of the world for Gaucher Disease and Elfabrio which was approved in May 2023.
- Chiesi Rare Disease will commercialize Elfabrio globally.
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