Daily Brief United States: Light & Wonder , Coinbase Global , Microsoft Corp, Amazon, KiteAI, Soybean Active Contract, American Eagle Outfitters, Amgen Inc, Crude Oil and more

• Light & Wonder (LNW US) will stop trading on the NASDAQ after the close on 12 November and the sole primary listing will move to Light & Wonder (LNW AU). 
• Index trackers will need to sell a lot of Light&Wonder (LNW US) at the close on 12 November. The buying in Light&Wonder (LNW AU) is a lot smaller.
• Light & Wonder (LNW AU) trades at a much lower forward PE compared to Aristocrat Leisure (ALL AU) and there could be a re-rating over the medium-term.

• Coinbase is a leading, US-based cryptocurrency exchange that has established a strong brand reputation for security and regulatory compliance in a volatile and often risky industry.
• The company’s financial performance is intrinsically linked to the cyclical and volatile nature of the cryptocurrency market, with revenues heavily dependent on transaction volumes and crypto asset prices.
• Future growth is contingent on diversifying revenue streams beyond transaction fees, with strategic initiatives focused on institutional services, the stablecoin (USDC) ecosystem, derivatives, and international expansion.

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• Revenue up 18% YoY. Cloud revenue up 26%. Commercial remaining obligation up 51%. Commercial bookings up 112%. AI capacity up 80% this year, will roughly double over next two years. 
• For a company with $300+bn revenue, that’s impressive. Slight irritant: $4bn loss on OpenAI in a quarter, 13% of net income gone. Is that the price of top line growth?
• The stock is trading at 29x forward EPS, Cloud & AI revenues are accelerating, but profits incl OpenAI loss are probably very thin. The cash cow will come years later. 

• 3Q25 revenue up 13% YoY, AWS up 20%, Operating Profit would have increased by 25% YoY but 2 one-time charges (FTC and headcount) bring OP flat YoY.
• 2025 Capex revised up from $100bn to 125bn. If Data Center capacity doubles to 2027, that means $205bn Capex in 2027. AWS revenues will double to ~$270bn? Probably yes.
• Next 2 years revenue growth and margins expansion are an AWS story. Valuations are average at 31x forward EPS. Buy more.

• AI industrial developments are advancing fast, presenting a paradigm shift from human centric systems to human-system interactions.
• Emerging standards are shaping the AI agent economy, including the X402 protocol developed by Coinbase and the A2A and AP2 protocols by Google.
• Kite AI is a PoAI-powered L1 blockchain optimized for the AI agent economy, enabling near-instant, sub-cent stablecoin micropayments via state channels and payment lanes.

• Bean prices have rallied strong in Oct pushing past the 12-month trading range. Hope or Fundamentals?
• China has not purchased any US beans for MY 2025/26. In 2024/25, Chinese buying stalled after May.
• Puzzle is that prices climb despite worsening fundamentals. Are traders pricing in an eventual resolution? What if their hopes are misplaced?

Key points (machine generated)

• American Eagle’s stock price has declined significantly after the Sydney Sweeney ad campaign, presenting a potential investment opportunity.
• Aerie, the activewear sub-brand, has been a growth driver but faced a revenue slump, contributing to disappointing first-quarter results for both AEO and Aerie.
• An accelerated share repurchase program will reduce the share count by nearly 10%, potentially positioning the company for recovery despite current volatility.

This article is sourced from an online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

• Our estimations for FY 2025 annual revenue of Amgen Inc. (or the company) range at around $35,429 million and for FY 2026 at around $36,138 million.
• The company’s annual revenue reached $33,424 million in 2024 compared to $28,190 million in 2023, posting an increase by 18.57%.
• Gross (or operating) profit for FY 2024 was $7,258 million, decreased by 8.09% compared to $7,897 million for the corresponding period of 2023. 

• Crude futures moved higher in late-Friday trading after this week’s US-China talks were met with a muted response from oil markets, while investors continued to monitor Russian sanctions and the likely outcome of this weekend’s OPEC+ meeting.
• Jan25 ICE Brent futures were trading at $65.07/b (2020 BST) versus Thursday’s settle of $64.37/b, while Dec25 NYMEX WTI was at $60.87/b against a previous close of $60.57/b.
• The ‘truce’ between Beijing and Washington was seen as enough to keep global trade ticking over, but in the absence of a long-term solution, analysts said markets are likely to be kept on edge.