In today’s briefing:
- S&P500 September 2025 Initial Forecast: MicroStrategy (MSTR) Emerges Post-Earnings
- Intel. Was Tesla’s Deal With Samsung The Death Knell For IFS?
- Nextracker Bets Big on AI & Robotics—Is This the Future of Solar Infrastructure?
- Beta Bionic Inc (BBNX) Six Month Summary: From Breakout to Breakdown
- Smithfield Foods Inc (SFD) Six Month Summary: Rough Start with a Resilient IPO Turnaround
- Sustainable Investing Surveyor Focus on NextDecade (NEXT) – August 4, 2025
- Americas/EMEA base oils demand outlook: Week of 4 August
- Asia base oils supply outlook: Week of 4 August
- Global base oils margins outlook: Week of 4 August
- Global base oils arb outlook: Week of 4 August
S&P500 September 2025 Initial Forecast: MicroStrategy (MSTR) Emerges Post-Earnings
- Microstrategy Inc Cl A (MSTR US) became eligible for inclusion in S&P500 following its quarterly earnings of $10bn on 31 July.
- Robinhood Markets (HOOD US), Microstrategy Inc Cl A (MSTR US), and AppLovin (APP US) are the main candidates for addition from TMI at the September 2025 review.
- Interactive Brokers Group, Inc (IBKR US) and Emcor Group Inc (EME US) are the main candidates for addition from MidCap at the September 2025 review.
Intel. Was Tesla’s Deal With Samsung The Death Knell For IFS?
- Tesla & Samsung just inked an eight year, $16.5 billion foundry deal set to run from July 24, 2025 through December 31, 2033.
- Had Intel snagged this deal, it would have been a lifesaver for the company. Not getting it likely triggered the updated “Risk Factors” section in their latest 10K.
- This isn’t Intel playing politics, there’s no point. It’s LBT laying it on the line for investors. Continued investment in 14A is no longer a given. It’s that simple…
Nextracker Bets Big on AI & Robotics—Is This the Future of Solar Infrastructure?
- Nextracker, a provider of advanced solar tracking systems, reported its financial performance for the first quarter of fiscal year 2026, showcasing both strengths and underlying challenges.
- The company achieved a significant year-over-year revenue increase of 20% to $864 million, buoyed by strong global demand and robust operational execution.
- Adjusted EBITDA similarly grew by 23% to $215 million, representing an EBITDA margin of 25%, a 100 basis point improvement from the prior year.
Beta Bionic Inc (BBNX) Six Month Summary: From Breakout to Breakdown
- The company priced an upsized 12.0 million share offering at $17.00—above the initial range—and opened 29.4% higher at $22.00.
- In March, amid broader sector weakness across the medical device space, the stock broke below its IPO price.
- The company did report better than expected sales in its most recent quarterly report last week with guidance raised giving long term investors more confidence in its execution moving forward.
Smithfield Foods Inc (SFD) Six Month Summary: Rough Start with a Resilient IPO Turnaround
- The company priced 26.08 million shares at $20.00—a reduced offering from the original 34.8 million shares and below the initial $23–$27 range.
- Since then, Smithfield has staged a steady and impressive climb. On Monday, shares reached a new post-IPO high of $25.22—a 26% gain from the issue price.
- A lesson can be learned: when the market punishes early entries, strong fundamentals and time can still pave the road to recovery.
Sustainable Investing Surveyor Focus on NextDecade (NEXT) – August 4, 2025
- Last week, the WTR Sustainable Index was down 5.7% W/W versus the S&P 500 Index (down 2.4%), the Russell 2000 Index (down 4.2%), and the Nasdaq Index (down 2.2%).
- Energy Technology (40% of the index) was down 5.2%, while Transportation Solutions (33% of the index) was down 5.0%, Climate Tech and Clean Tech (20% of the index) was down 4.2%, and Climate Tech Mining and Processing (7% of the index) was down 17.3%.
- Top 10 Performers: NXHSF, LISMF, KARX, AMSC, GNRC, AWLIF, NWTN, TPCS, CPSH, GRDAF
Americas/EMEA base oils demand outlook: Week of 4 August
- US base oils demand likely to stay lower amid signs of healthy availability of supply.
- Healthy availability of supply, buyers’ sufficient stocks and seasonal slowdown in consumption incentivize buyers to hold back.
- Ongoing fall in US base oils export prices adds to signs of weaker domestic demand.
Asia base oils supply outlook: Week of 4 August
- Asia’s Group II heavy-grade base oils price-premium to gasoil holds steady at lower level, close to levels in Q4 2024.
- Lower heavy-grade base oils margins and falling regional cargo price point to weaker supply-demand fundamentals.
- Even at lower level, price-premium remains at level that incentivizes refiners to maintain steady output of the product.
Global base oils margins outlook: Week of 4 August
- Global base oils prices mostly fall relative to feedstock/competing fuel prices, with export values under more pressure.
- Even at lower levels, price-differentials mostly hold at levels that sustain incentive for refiners to maintain output of most base oils grades.
- FOB Asia base oils cargo prices hold steady versus Singapore gasoil.
Global base oils arb outlook: Week of 4 August
- Group II heavy-grade base oils premium to light grades is almost the same in US, Europe and Asia markets at same time and for first time in more than five years.
- Similar price-spreads in all those markets contrast with diverging fundamentals driving those similar price-spreads, especially in Europe.
- Similar price-spreads in US vs other markets follow sustained weakness of US heavy-grade prices because of persistent surplus supply.
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