In today’s briefing:
- Is Huawei New AI Chip Is Bad for Nvidia? New US Export Licensing Is the Real Issue (Part 2)
- Gold (GOLD COMDTY) Outlook And Profit Targets
- Sentiment Signal in Gold
- Global base oils arb outlook: Week of 28 April
- Global base oils margins outlook: Week of 28 April
- [Earnings Preview] BP’s Outlook Dims with Lower Hydrocarbon Output and Softer Trading Results
- Aspen Insurance Holdings Limited (AHL): Apollo Backed Company Sets Terms; Seeking $2.9b Valuation
- [US Nat Gas Options Weekly 2025/17] Henry Hub Extended Losing Streak on Mild Weather Outlook
- American Integrity Insurance Group (AII): Florida Based Insurance Company Sets Terms for IPO
- Americas/EMEA base oils supply outlook: Week of 28 April
Is Huawei New AI Chip Is Bad for Nvidia? New US Export Licensing Is the Real Issue (Part 2)
- Apparently, on news of this new Huawei chip in WSJ, Nvidia’s stock decline -2% yesterday. That’s strange – not new news, the real issue is new US export license requirements.
- Nvidia’s problem is not Huawei, but US restrictions on selling GPU to China. Nvidia announced writing off US$5.5bn on 9 April 2025 (for H20). AMD estimates US$800m (for MI308).
- Assume that Nvidia and AMD will not sell any AI chips to China. Same for HBM memory.
Gold (GOLD COMDTY) Outlook And Profit Targets
- Gold (GOLD COMDTY) has been in an a prolonged uptrend for several weeks, 1-week pullbacks have been buy-the-dips opportunities so far.
- Last week Gold closed down, a modest 1-week pullback, it may be an opportunity to buy but we want to show you where is the ideal support zone to buy.
- In this insight we will also identify also profit targets, in case gold keeps rallying from here, so that you know how far the rally can go.
Sentiment Signal in Gold
- This chart from Sentiment Trader highlights that also gold stocks are quite stretched – which isn’t a sell signal, as a stretched market can always become more stretched.
- Note: We’re long the June contract of Gold since mid of March
- Another interesting thought regarding gold demand going forward: if AI models really become more efficient and less data center usage is needed, demand for gold in tech could be affected as well.
Global base oils arb outlook: Week of 28 April
- US domestic Group I brightstock price outperforms lighter grades and Group II prices.
- US export brightstock prices significantly lag brightstock prices in Europe and Asia.
- Widening price-discount reflects signs of increasingly diverging supply-demand fundamentals between US and Europe and Asia.
Global base oils margins outlook: Week of 28 April
- Global base oils price premium to feedstock/competing fuel prices stays higher at end-April 2025 than a month earlier.
- Higher margins coincide with seasonal rise in demand and plant maintenance work.
- Higher margins follow sharp fall in crude oil prices.
[Earnings Preview] BP’s Outlook Dims with Lower Hydrocarbon Output and Softer Trading Results
- BP’s Q4 revenue and EPS are projected to decline by 7.4% YoY and 43.3%, respectively, due to lower hydrocarbon output, weaker gas marketing, and subdued trading results.
- BP expects oil production earnings to remain flat sequentially, with refining margins adding USD 100-300 million to Q1 earnings, while oil trading performance is anticipated to remain unchanged.
- The company expects net debt to increase by USD 4 billion from the previous quarter’s USD 23 billion, citing seasonal inventory builds and timing of payments.
Aspen Insurance Holdings Limited (AHL): Apollo Backed Company Sets Terms; Seeking $2.9b Valuation
- A total of 11.0mm shares are being offered with the entirety being offloaded by the sponsor, Apollo Global Securities.
- This company was acquired by private-equity titan Apollo Global in a transaction announced in August 2018 and closing in February 2019.
- For the three months ended March 31, 2025, Aspen Insurance had gross written premiums of $1.287b vs. $1.231b in the same period in 2024 for an increase of 4.5%.
[US Nat Gas Options Weekly 2025/17] Henry Hub Extended Losing Streak on Mild Weather Outlook
- For the week ending 25/Apr, U.S. natural gas prices fell by 9.5% on the back of warmer weather forecasts and rising production.
- For the week ending 18/Apr, the EIA reported that U.S. natural gas inventories rose by 88 Bcf, higher than analyst expectations of a 69 Bcf build.
- Henry Hub OI PCR rose to 0.96 on 28/Apr compared to 0.93 on 17/Apr. Call OI decreased by 18.5%, while put OI dropped by 16.1%.
American Integrity Insurance Group (AII): Florida Based Insurance Company Sets Terms for IPO
- American Integrity Insurance Group (AII US) was one of two insurance companies to set terms for an IPO on Tuesday morning for a debut next week.
- Gross premiums written increased 43.9% to $212.2 million for the three months ended March 31, 2025, compared to $147.5 million for the three months ended March 31, 2024.
- The underwriting lineup on this sector, led by Keefe Bruyette & Woods, has a strong track record of pricing and placing transactions in this sector.
Americas/EMEA base oils supply outlook: Week of 28 April
- US base oils price premium to VGO/heating oil prices holds steadier after surging in H1 April 2025.
- Firmer margins and steady prices coincide with signs of slowdown in shipments to markets like West Africa in April 2025.
- Firmer margins and steadier prices coincide with steadier US Group II price discount to imported cargo prices in markets like India.
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