Daily Brief United States: Pan American Silver, New Horizon Aircraft, Crude Oil, Soybean Active Contract, CoreCivic , POET Technologies , Mastech Digital , Dyadic International , iPower , Lands’ End Inc and more

Pan American Silver (PAAS) delivered strong quarterly results, with higher commodity prices boosting revenues and lowering costs. Q125 EBITDA was US$330m, just 5% shy of the seasonally strongest Q4 number, as costs were markedly below and production was in line with quarterly guidance for both segments. The company maintained its FY25 operating outlook, which points to seasonally strong quarters ahead. PAAS also announced a proposed acquisition of MAG Silver (MAG), valuing the company at US$2.1bn. MAG owns 44% in a top-tier Juanicipio silver operation in Mexico. In this note, we provide an initial take on the transaction, while keeping our revised estimates and valuation of PAAS on a standalone basis.

• New Horizon Aircraft is a Canada-based aviation company specializing in the development of hybrid electric Vertical Takeoff and Landing (eVTOL) aircraft
• HOVR’s flagship aircraft, the Cavorite X7 is likely to be commercially available in the next 24 to 36 months. HOVR has already completed the development of a 50%-scale prototype.
• The timeline looks achievable, and the Company has already committed to supplying five Cavorite X7 to Air Chile Ltd by the end of 2028.

• OPEC held its 2025 and 2026 demand growth forecasts steady. The IEA’s upward revision reflects a catch-up adjustment for 2024, not a fundamental shift in its forward outlook.
• The EIA raised its demand growth forecast by 7.8% for 2025 but cut estimates by 13.5% for 2026. Meanwhile, it raised supply forecasts and projected inventory builds for both years.
• The EIA expects Henry Hub prices to rise in 2025 and 2026 from current levels, though it revised its 2025 forecast 3.5% lower and lifted 2026 estimates by 4.3%.

• After falling to a 2025 low, Bean prices have rallied strongly to clock a nine-month high. Macro conditions augur well for the rally to be sustained. 
• Implied vols on bean options have dropped even as prices rise. Spike in skew points to reduced demand for downside risk hinting at upward price buoyancy.  
• Technical charts paint a broadly bullish picture with potential for rally ahead remaining intact. However, the bullish momentum might take a breather in the near term.   

• CXW is reactivating three facilities that it had idled, including two under letter agreements.
• CXW is optimistic that it will reach long-term agreements with ICE and others to warrant bringing additional capacity online.
• The 3rd facility, Dilley, is being reactivated under a new long-term agreement that is expected to generate annual revenue of ~ $180m when it has ramped fully and to be accretive beginning in 2Q25.

• POET Technologies is a startup disrupting the photonics industry with a new technology that eliminates parts of an optical transceiver and replaces them with a single integrated device which is smaller, cheaper, faster, more scalable and with much lower power consumption than the current solutions.
• Its solution can be produced at wafer scale, eliminating costly manual steps, and allowing it to be easily produced in large quantities and at low cost.
• In 2024 it raised $81 million to ramp production and restructure the company by buying out its JV partner.

• Mastech Digital, based outside Pittsburgh, PA is an IT staffing business with a data and analytics, consulting, and project management service serving blue-chip customers in the US.
• The company trades below its peers and we expect stock price appreciation now that the company has returned to growth.
• New management has implemented a new focus on AI and hopes to profit by aiding clients in its implementation.

• Dyadic has developed C1, its proprietary fungal expression system that can produce a variety of recombinant proteins.
• C1 has been commercialized in industrial applications and is in development for production of pharmaceutical grade proteins.
• C1 exhibits potential to economically produce recombinant proteins, biologic vaccines, virus like particles, antibodies, Fc-fusion, enzymes, AAVs and other biopharmaceuticals.

• IPW reported revenue of $16.6 million in 3QFY25 (quarter ended March 31, 2025), down from $23.3 million in the year- ago period, with the decline primarily due to (1) a cautious consumer demand environment,
• (2) market uncertainty leading to slower order flow from retail partners such as Amazon, and
• (3) elevated purchasing volumes from IPW’s largest channel partner, Amazon, in the year-ago period, which presented a tough comp.

• We are reiterating our Buy rating, projections and $20 price target for Lands’ End after reviewing the May catalog.
• As we start to enter the “buy now wear now” swim season, Lands’ End has materially ramped overall newness, with new technical advances for the core Tugless line, multiple additions to the Slendersuit offerings and new seamless looks, all of which serve to emphasize the company’s technological leadership and ability to offer multiple choices for different body sizes in the core swimwear offerings.
• Further, there remains continued expansion/emphasis on pre and post swim looks, with swim dresses, wraps and cover-ups.