In today’s briefing:
- Reddit’s ChatGPT Collapse: A Warning Sign For All AI Content Sellers!
- AES Might Be Going Private: What Blackrock’s GIP Sees In The Power Giant!
- Acadia Healthcare’s Survival Strategy? Activist Investor Khrom Capital Pushes For Full-Scale Sale!
- Oil futures: Crude heads for steep weekly losses ahead of OPEC+
- Q4 Outlook for Our Investment Themes
- Intel Could Build Chips For AMD?! Wall Street Stunned By Shocking Twist!
- Beyond the Current Account Deficit: What Drives the US Dollar?
- Halozyme’s $900M Hypercon Bet: Will Elektrofi Redefine SubQ Drug Delivery?
Reddit’s ChatGPT Collapse: A Warning Sign For All AI Content Sellers!
- Reddit shares have taken a sharp dive following a troubling drop in references from OpenAI’s ChatGPT platform, sparking fresh concerns over the stability of its AI licensing revenue stream.
- Once hailed as one of the most valuable sources of human-generated conversational data, Reddit has increasingly leaned into its role as a supplier of AI training material, boasting of its extensive corpus being the “#1 most cited domain” for large language models (LLMs).
- However, recent data showing a sharp decline in ChatGPT references has jolted investors, raising red flags about the longevity and sustainability of this monetization route.
AES Might Be Going Private: What Blackrock’s GIP Sees In The Power Giant!
- Global Infrastructure Partners (GIP), a unit of BlackRock, is reportedly closing in on a $38 billion deal to acquire AES Corporation, one of the largest utility and renewable infrastructure companies in the world.
- According to Financial Times, this would be among the biggest infrastructure transactions to date, valuing AES at an enterprise level that includes $29 billion in debt and $9.4 billion in market capitalization.
- Shares of AES surged more than 14% in pre-market trading following the report, although the company has been under pressure, with its stock declining over 30% in the past year.
Acadia Healthcare’s Survival Strategy? Activist Investor Khrom Capital Pushes For Full-Scale Sale!
- Acadia Healthcare faces mounting pressure from Khrom Capital Management LLC, a 5.5% shareholder, which has launched an activist campaign urging the company to explore strategic alternatives, including a potential sale.
- This comes amid prolonged underperformance, a burdensome debt profile, and investor dissatisfaction.
- In a strongly worded letter to Acadia’s board, Khrom pointed to a 71% stock price decline over the past three years and echoed calls from another activist, Engine Capital, which recently took a 3% stake.
Oil futures: Crude heads for steep weekly losses ahead of OPEC+
- Crude oil futures steadied Friday after four consecutive losses left prices sharply lower on the week, coming ahead of Sunday’s keenly anticipated online OPEC+ meeting.
- Front-month Dec25 ICE Brent futures were trading at $64.42/b (2005 BST) versus Thursday’s settle of $64.11/b, while Nov25 NYMEX WTI was at $60.73/b against a previous close of $60.48/b.
- Benchmarks had traded higher earlier in the day before losing steam in late trading.
Q4 Outlook for Our Investment Themes
- How have our major investment themes performed so far in 2025?
- Review of the performance of the major markets and asset classes we focus on
- We revisit our outlook for each of those asset classes for Q4 25
Intel Could Build Chips For AMD?! Wall Street Stunned By Shocking Twist!
- Intel’s stock recently spiked on a stunning twist in the semiconductor saga: reports indicate Intel could manufacture chips for longtime rival AMD.
- This development is sending shockwaves through the chip sector and has investors re-evaluating what was once unthinkable.
- As Intel CEO Lip-Bu Tan pushes to reinvent the company’s future, this move—if confirmed—signals a seismic shift in strategy.
Beyond the Current Account Deficit: What Drives the US Dollar?
- Investors are under-appreciating a sharp narrowing of the US current account deficit in 2Q25. This is a sustainable trend as net government borrowing normalises to around 5% of GDP
- The US is not losing its ability to attract long term capital flows. In 2Q25, net foreign direct investment reached $121b, the strongest since 3Q22
- The result is a sharp improvement in the basic balance. Investors should monitor this indicator to assess whether Trump’s policy mix of fiscal consolidation and re-shoring is succeeding or not
Halozyme’s $900M Hypercon Bet: Will Elektrofi Redefine SubQ Drug Delivery?
- In a bold strategic step, Halozyme Therapeutics announced its agreement to acquire Boston-based drug delivery innovator Elektrofi for $750 million in cash, with up to $150 million more in milestone payments tied to three product approvals.
- The acquisition is expected to close in Q4 2025 and is being financed through a mix of cash reserves and debt, raising Halozyme’s net leverage to approximately 2x net debt-to-EBITDA.
- The move complements Halozyme’s existing ENHANZE platform with Elektrofi’s Hypercon technology, which enables ultra-high biologic concentrations of 400–500 mg/mL—4–5x above current industry norms—allowing for subcutaneous administration of large-molecule drugs in smaller volumes.
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