In today’s briefing:
- [Alert] Sell Sandisk Spin-off
- Near-Term Downside Likely Following False Breakouts; Targeting 5770-5850; Long-Term Still Bullish
- Potential Buyout of Nathan’s Famous by Smithfield Foods Could Unlock 45% Upside Amid Strategic Synergies
- Twilio Inc.: How Is The Management Capitalizing On AI Integration & Product Cross-Selling Opportunities?
- Where Is the Nasdaq 100 Headed Next?
- [US Crude Oil Options Weekly 2025/08] WTI Surrendered Gains on Weak Economic Signals
- [US Nat Gas Options Weekly 2025/08] Henry Hub Extends Gains for Third Week Amid Sustained Cold Snap
- DaVita Inc.: Is Their Expectation Regarding Revenue Per Treatment Growth Reasonable?
- Moderna Inc.: Is Its mRNA Platform Fueling A Multi-Billion-Dollar Pipeline Beyond COVID?
- Bio-Rad Laboratories: Expanding In Digital PCR To Strengthen Presence & Advance Molecular Diagnostics!
[Alert] Sell Sandisk Spin-off
Today, investors received shares in the new SanDisk spin-off.
Shares are currently slightly up due to buying pressure ahead of the stock being added to the S&P 600 index effective tomorrow.
SanDisk is trading at 1.1x revenue which is a reasonable valuation (Xioxia, Sandisk’s JV partner, trades at 1.3x LTM revenue).
Near-Term Downside Likely Following False Breakouts; Targeting 5770-5850; Long-Term Still Bullish
- Our long-term outlook remains bullish as long as the S&P 500 remains above 5770-5850 and 5600-5670 (worst case), and we are buyers at these levels.
- With that said, we see potential for near-term downside based on several developments discussed below. It likely means at least another 2-4 weeks of consolidation
- If SPX remains below 6100 and 6150 resistances, do not be surprised if there is a test of the bottom of the range at either 5770-5850 or 5600-5670
Potential Buyout of Nathan’s Famous by Smithfield Foods Could Unlock 45% Upside Amid Strategic Synergies
- Nathan’s Famous is in potential sale talks, with major food manufacturers and PE firms as potential buyers.
- Smithfield Foods, Nathan’s key partner, is well-positioned for acquisition, potentially eliminating royalties and achieving cost synergies.
- Sum of the parts valuation estimates Nathan’s equity value at $604m or $148/share, a 45% upside potential.
Twilio Inc.: How Is The Management Capitalizing On AI Integration & Product Cross-Selling Opportunities?
- Twilio Inc. presented a compelling performance in the fourth quarter of 2024, showcasing its evolution and strategic progress.
- The company reported $1.195 billion in revenue, marking an 11% increase year-over-year, achieving consecutive quarters of double-digit growth.
- This quarter was particularly notable as it was Twilio’s first to achieve GAAP operating profitability, ahead of its initial target, underscoring the firm’s focus on balanced growth and profitability.
Where Is the Nasdaq 100 Headed Next?
- The Nasdaq-100 INDEX started to pull back last week, this is the second week down in a row and the index is very oversold according to our tactical model.
- The DAILY model signals extreme oversold conditions, a reversal is imminent. The WEEKLY model is also oversold but still leaves room for further downside…
- A possible scenario is a DAILY bounce (1 or 2 days up) followed by more WEEKLY downside (another 1-2 weeks down). This insight wil analyze only the WEEKLY model.
[US Crude Oil Options Weekly 2025/08] WTI Surrendered Gains on Weak Economic Signals
- WTI futures fell by 0.5% for the week ending 21/Feb, marking its fifth consecutive weekly drop. Prices fell due to bearish economic data and rising crude inventories.
- WTI options Put/Call volume ratio surged to 1.62 on 21/Feb (Fri) from 0.94 on 14/Feb, as call volume rose by 15.9% WoW while put volume jumped by 100%.
- WTI OI PCR fell to 0.95 on 21/Feb compared to 0.96 on 14/Feb. Call OI increased by 6.5% WoW, while put OI rose by 6.1%.
[US Nat Gas Options Weekly 2025/08] Henry Hub Extends Gains for Third Week Amid Sustained Cold Snap
- For the week ending 21/Feb, U.S. natural gas prices gained 13.7% on the back of colder weather forecasts, rising LNG exports, and falling inventories.
- Henry Hub Put/Call volume ratio rose to 0.72 on 21/Feb from 0.66 on 14/Feb as call volumes increased by 81.4% WoW, while put volumes surged by 98%.
- Henry Hub OI PCR rose to 1.04 on 21/Feb from 0.98 on 14/Feb. Call OI rose by 7.1% WoW, while put OI increased by 13.3%.
DaVita Inc.: Is Their Expectation Regarding Revenue Per Treatment Growth Reasonable?
- DaVita ended 2024 strongly, with adjusted operating income of $1.98 billion and adjusted earnings per share (EPS) growing by 26% year-over-year, reaching $9.68.
- However, challenges such as the Change Healthcare outage and supply chain disruptions due to Hurricane Helene impacted performance.
- These issues contributed to a $6 million negative impact on operating income in the fourth quarter.
Moderna Inc.: Is Its mRNA Platform Fueling A Multi-Billion-Dollar Pipeline Beyond COVID?
- Moderna reported its financial results for the fourth quarter and the full year of 2024, revealing both opportunities and challenges.
- The company recorded total revenue of $3.2 billion for the year, a 53% decrease from 2023, attributed largely to declining product sales.
- The net loss for 2024 was $3.6 billion, a slight improvement from a $4.7 billion net loss in 2023.
Bio-Rad Laboratories: Expanding In Digital PCR To Strengthen Presence & Advance Molecular Diagnostics!
- Bio-Rad Laboratories recently announced its financial results for the fourth quarter and the full fiscal year 2024, revealing both achievements and challenges.
- The company reported net sales of approximately $668 million in the fourth quarter, representing a decline of 2% on a reported basis compared to the same period last year.
- This decrease was largely attributed to a shorter turnaround in the Life Science segment and fluctuations in the biopharma market, notably in China, which still reflected a market downturn.
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