In today’s briefing:
- Lanka EDB Sits With Rubber Product Exporters To Tackle US Tariffs
- Talos Energy Inc: Valuation Discount/Estimate Update
- OPEC, EIA, and IEA Lower Oil Price Projections; Natural Gas Expected to Be Resilient
- VEON (VEON US): Frontier Markets Digital Leader, Ukraine Spin-Out to Unlock Value
- JAKK: 1Q Preview: Staring Into the Abyss; Reiterate Buy, PT
- MIRA: Large Market Potential Opens Up
- [Pre Earnings Options Flash] Schlumberger’s Options Data Suggests Mixed Signals Ahead of Q1
- American Integrity Insurance Group (AII): Peeking at the Prospectus of Florida Based Insurer
- SES AI Corp: – Pioneering New Battery Chemistries, Business Model with AI
- GES: Snapping the Store: Beginning to Bloom; Reiterate Buy, $23 PT
Lanka EDB Sits With Rubber Product Exporters To Tackle US Tariffs
- 85% of Lankan rubber products shipped to US, EU markets
- Tariffs can diminish 28% of US rubber products export revenue
- Govt allocates LKR 1500 million for rubber industry in Budget
Talos Energy Inc: Valuation Discount/Estimate Update
- Talos’ current ~$2.5 billion enterprise value (EV) reflects a 23% discount to the ~$3.2 billion PV-10 of company’s year-end 2024 proved developed reserves using flat prices of $65/bbl for oil and $3/MMBtu for natural gas.
- Total proved reserves at year-end were 194 MMBoe (74% oil/81% liquids). Estimated probable reserves at year-end 2024 were 125.3 MMBoe, having a PV-10 on the same flat pricing of ~$2.7 billion.
- On a proved plus probable basis, the discount widens to 58%. Under SEC pricing ($76.32/bbl and $2.13/MMBtu), the discount was 41% for total proved and 66% for proved plus probable.
OPEC, EIA, and IEA Lower Oil Price Projections; Natural Gas Expected to Be Resilient
- OPEC lowered its 2025 oil demand growth forecast to 1.3m bpd from 1.45m bpd, while the IEA and EIA also revised forecasts down to 0.90m bpd and 0.73m bpd, respectively.
- The EIA significantly lowered its 2025-2026 crude oil price outlook, citing the dual impact of Trump’s tariffs and OPEC+’s decision to boost output.
- U.S. tariffs and China’s retaliatory measures are injecting uncertainty into global oil trade and refining margins.
VEON (VEON US): Frontier Markets Digital Leader, Ukraine Spin-Out to Unlock Value
- Telecom leader in key frontier markets. VEON serves nearly 160 million subscribers across frontier markets including Ukraine, Pakistan, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and Bangladesh.
- Multiple potential unicorn tech businesses within the Group. VEON has multiple rapidly growing tech businesses with unicorn (US$1bn valuation) potential.
- Ukraine spin-out to unlock value. VEON is planning a Nasdaq IPO spin-out of its Ukraine business Kyivstar via de-SPAC for 2H25E. We rate VEON as a Structural Long, US$59 Target.
JAKK: 1Q Preview: Staring Into the Abyss; Reiterate Buy, PT
- We are reiterating our Buy rating, projections and price target for JAKKS Pacific with the company announcing 1Q25 (March) results after the close on Wednesday.
- While we believe our 1Q projections reflected tariff conditions correctly, with April tariff levels increasing on goods from China to 125%, we are entering uncharted territory where, frankly, our current projections probably do not apply.
- We believe JAKKS Pacific management will have to rebuild their business model, which could entail higher pricing, deeper focus internationally (21% of 2024 sales), lower S,G&A and licensing spend and, longer term, shifting what can be shifted in terms of production from China, which currently accounts for virtually all product manufacturing.
MIRA: Large Market Potential Opens Up
- MIRA Pharmaceuticals(MIRA) Company Sponsored Research Report
[Pre Earnings Options Flash] Schlumberger’s Options Data Suggests Mixed Signals Ahead of Q1
- Schlumberger will report its Q1 earnings on 25/Apr, with revenue and EPS projected to fall sequentially and annually due to subdued oil prices and demand.
- Schlumberger’s OI PCR at 0.70, signalling neutral sentiment, with a 96% IV percentile indicating high volatility.
- For the 25/Apr expiry, SLB’s OI shows calls concentrated at strikes 42, 43, and 45, while puts dominate at 34, 33, and 32, with lower put OI at key levels.
American Integrity Insurance Group (AII): Peeking at the Prospectus of Florida Based Insurer
- They are the seventh largest writer of residential property insurance in Florida based on DPW for policies in-force as of December 31, 2024.
- For the years ended December 31, 2024 they produced gross premiums written of $767.7 million and net premiums written of $194.4 million. Their net income was $39.7 million.
- We anticipate this company to set terms (share size, price range) and debut in the month of May.
SES AI Corp: – Pioneering New Battery Chemistries, Business Model with AI
- Hu discussed the upcoming launch of Molecular Universe MU-0 and described how the firm is using AI to accelerate battery materials discovery.
- The Molecular Universe platform is the outgrowth of the firm’s work to map out the entire small molecule universe relevant for Li-metal and Li-ion battery chemistries.
- The platform enables R&D teams to search for chemistries that meet specific engineering requirements, tuned to the specifics of different industry use cases, and interrogate the map of the chemical space in natural language, greatly enhancing R&D efficiency.
GES: Snapping the Store: Beginning to Bloom; Reiterate Buy, $23 PT
- We are reiterating our Buy rating, projections and $23 price target for Guess?
- after visiting stores in Metropolitan New York City and Long Island.
- We believe, after a long period of shifts and upgrades, Guess?
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