In today’s briefing:
- Horizon Robotics (9660 HK): Index Inclusion & Upweights to Drive US$1bn Inflows
- Korea: 3 Potential Index Deletions in August; Positioning Watch
- [Quiddity Index] Van Eck Gold Miners ETF (GDX) Sep25 Rebal – $5.8bn of Gold Stocks To Trade
- [Japan M&A] ¥4,870/Sh Blackstone TOB for Technopro (6028 JP) – Watch the Parameters and Modalities
- [Quiddity Index] S&P500/400/600 Sep25 Rebal: Two Possible Changes, But One Iffy
- TOPIX Inclusions: Who Is Ready (Aug 2025)
- [Japan M&A] Furukawa Battery (6937 JP) Take Private – Ugly Then, Ugly Still, But Now It’s On…
- JPX Nikkei 400 Index Rebalance: US$6.4bn Round-Trip Trade Coming Up
- Iress (IRE AU): Blackstone Mulling a Privatisation Bid
- BoE Cut Proves Finely Balanced
Horizon Robotics (9660 HK): Index Inclusion & Upweights to Drive US$1bn Inflows
- There should be big passive inflows to Horizon Robotics (9660 HK) over the next 6 weeks and that could take the stock higher in the short term.
- Southbound Stock Connect investors have bought more than 10% of the Class B shares outstanding since the stock was added to the link a couple of months ago.
- Short interest jumped following the Stock Connect inclusion but there has been covering over the last few weeks. Short-term direction for the stock price looks to be higher.
Korea: 3 Potential Index Deletions in August; Positioning Watch
- There are 3 stocks in Korea that could be deleted from a global index in August and that will result in large selling from passive trackers.
- Short interest has increased in all 3 stocks since the resumption of short selling. Cumulative excess volume is higher in all stocks over the last couple of months.
- Given the increase in shorts and positioning, there could be short covering in two of the three stocks. The third could still drop over the next couple of weeks.
[Quiddity Index] Van Eck Gold Miners ETF (GDX) Sep25 Rebal – $5.8bn of Gold Stocks To Trade
- The MV Global Gold Miners Index (GDX) represents the performance of large-cap and mid-cap gold and silver mining companies listed around the world.
- This index is reviewed/rebalanced quarterly. For September, there is a big increase in flow events as the VanEck Gold Miners ETF changes benchmark to the GDX Index.
- There are a bunch of changes to go with the change in benchmark leading to US$5.8bn of two-way flows. It’s a big deal.
[Japan M&A] ¥4,870/Sh Blackstone TOB for Technopro (6028 JP) – Watch the Parameters and Modalities
- This was signaled in May, somewhat confirmed in July, now done. Blackstone buys Technopro at ¥4,870/share which is ~14x EV/EBITDA for next year.
- PE Firms have been scouring the Japanese market to buy companies. The METI Corporate Takeover Guidelines are super-helpful in that regard. This will squeeze the market over time.
- This takeover price is not quite as full as it could have been, and there are some parameters and modalities to this which are worth looking at. Parameters and Modalities.
[Quiddity Index] S&P500/400/600 Sep25 Rebal: Two Possible Changes, But One Iffy
- The S&P 500 index tracks the 500 largest names listed in the US and it is one of the most highly-tracked indices in the world.
- In this insight, we take a look at the upcoming constituent changes in the run up to the September 2025 index rebal event.
- We expect two regular changes in September 2025 – maybe $10bn a side. There are also a couple of live M&A events which are likely to trigger intra-review index changes.
TOPIX Inclusions: Who Is Ready (Aug 2025)
- Quiddity’s “Who is Ready” series of insights aims to objectively identify names listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange that are potential additions to the TOPIX Index in future.
- GMO Financial Gate (4051 JP), Azoom (3496 JP) and Kitazato (368A JP) (recent IPO) were included in the TOPIX index at the end of July 2025.
- Our long-term pre-event candidate Core Concept Technologies Inc (4371 JP) is getting close to meeting the key Section Transfer requirements.
[Japan M&A] Furukawa Battery (6937 JP) Take Private – Ugly Then, Ugly Still, But Now It’s On…
- 54 weeks ago Advantage Partners and Furukawa Electric announced a deal to take Furukawa Electric (5801 JP) sub Furukawa Battery (6937 JP) private. The acquisition price was LOW.
- Minorities got more – more than book. But the deal included a payment delay allowing BVPS to rise 8.8% from the announcement date. No synergies.
- Furukawa Electric gets to buy back in at a price below book. And because there are cash and securities and lots of net receivables, the operating assets are well below.
JPX Nikkei 400 Index Rebalance: US$6.4bn Round-Trip Trade Coming Up
- There are 39 adds/34 deletes for the JPX Nikkei 400 Index to bring the number of index constituents back to 400. There are stocks with multiple days ADV to trade.
- Based on the adds, deletes and capping changes, we estimate one way turnover of 6.7% and a round-trip trade of JPY 946bn (US$6.4bn).
- The adds have outperformed the deletes over the last year and there has been a move higher in the last few days too.
Iress (IRE AU): Blackstone Mulling a Privatisation Bid
- The AFR reports that Blackstone (BX US) is considering a privatisation bid which could value Iress Ltd (IRE AU) at about A$1.9 billion (more than A$10 per share).
- Iress is no stranger to privatisation interest. In 2021, EQT (EQT SS) bid against itself thrice to offer A$15.91, before failing to table a binding proposal.
- The shareholder structure facilitates an offer. The rumoured offer is a good starting point, but it is far from a knockout bid.
BoE Cut Proves Finely Balanced
- Four MPC members refused to back the rate cut in August, and only one favoured a 50bp cut, but he was forced to vote for a 25bp cut to break the balanced 4:4 split.
- The group favouring a slower pace of easing may have expanded from 5:4 to 6:3, raising the hurdle to another cut. Four don’t even support the prevailing level.
- Inflation forecast revisions keep trending the profile higher. Rolling resilience in the broader data should keep the BoE on hold in November and beyond, like the ECB.
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