In today’s briefing:
- Kioxia (285A JP): Toshiba Selling Leads to Passive Buying & Removes Overhang
- Gold Miners ETF (GDX US) Dec Rebalance: Zijin Gold Is a Miss; One Add Likely; US$4.1bn Trade
- Ganfeng Lithium (1772 HK): Global Index Inclusion, Outperformance & The A/H Trade
- Ebara (6361 JP): Global Index Inclusion & Increased Positioning
- Seibu Holdings (9024 JP): Big Outperformance and Global Index Inclusion
- China Nonferrous Mining (1258 HK): Volatility Increases as Global Index Inclusion Nears
- Barito Renewables Energy (BREN IJ): Potential Index Inclusion in Nov (Finally?)
- Yakult Honsha (2267 JP): Underperformance & Global Index Deletion in Nov
- UBTech Robotics (9880 HK): Global Index Inclusion Likely in November
- Nanjing Leads Biolabs (NLB HK): Bags Outlicensing Deal for Pre-Clinical Drug Candidate
Kioxia (285A JP): Toshiba Selling Leads to Passive Buying & Removes Overhang
- Toshiba Corp (6502 JP) has sold over 5% of shares outstanding in Kioxia Holdings (285A JP) over the last month as the stock has run up.
- The increased market cap and higher float should result in index inclusion and passive buying for Kioxia Holdings (285A JP) in November. Then an upweight in another index in December.
- Toshiba Corp (6502 JP)‘s selling could also lead to Kioxia Holdings (285A JP) meeting JPX’s tradable share ratio and removes an overhang for the stock.
Gold Miners ETF (GDX US) Dec Rebalance: Zijin Gold Is a Miss; One Add Likely; US$4.1bn Trade
- The VanEck Gold Miners ETF/USA (GDX US) transitioned from the tracking the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index to the MarketVector Global Gold Miners Index in September.
- With float below 10%, Zijin Gold (2259 HK) should miss inclusion in the index in December, while Dundee Precious Metals (DPM CN) is a potential inclusion.
- There are big capping changes with estimated one-way turnover of 6.4% and a round-trip trade of US$4.1bn.
Ganfeng Lithium (1772 HK): Global Index Inclusion, Outperformance & The A/H Trade
- Ganfeng Lithium (1772 HK)‘s stock price has surged over the last 6 months, and the higher free float market cap should result in global index inclusion in November.
- Ganfeng Lithium (1772 HK) has outperformed its peers and is trading at higher valuations on most metrics. Tianqi Lithium (9696 HK) is trading a lot cheaper.
- The Jiangxi Ganfeng Lithium (002460 CH) / Ganfeng Lithium (1772 HK) premium has drifted lower and there could be a move higher as we near index inclusion.
Ebara (6361 JP): Global Index Inclusion & Increased Positioning
- After the recent rally, Ebara Corp (6361 JP)‘s increased market cap and free float market cap should result in inclusion in a global index in November.
- Ebara Corp (6361 JP) has underperformed its larger peers, and the stock is trading cheaper than the average of its peers on most metrics.
- There has been a large increase in cumulative excess volume for Ebara Corp (6361 JP) since July and we do not see a similar increase in its peers.
Seibu Holdings (9024 JP): Big Outperformance and Global Index Inclusion
- The recent rally has taken Seibu Holdings (9024 JP)‘ stock price to a new high. The increased market cap should result in global index inclusion in November.
- Seibu Holdings (9024 JP) has outperformed its peers by a wide margin, over the last couple of years and in the short-term.
- While there has been an increase in positioning in the stock over the last few weeks, it does not different materially from what we see in its peers.
China Nonferrous Mining (1258 HK): Volatility Increases as Global Index Inclusion Nears
- The rally in China Nonferrous Mining Corp (1258 HK)‘s stock price over the last 6 months should result in the stock being added to a global index in November.
- China Nonferrous Mining Corp (1258 HK) has outperformed a lot of its peers and now trades at higher valuations.
- Positioning has increased sharply in the last 6 weeks, and yesterday’s sharp fall could have been a result of unwinding of some of that positioning.
Barito Renewables Energy (BREN IJ): Potential Index Inclusion in Nov (Finally?)
- Barito Renewables Energy (BREN IJ)‘s stock price has been buffeted by expectations of index inclusion and then an unwind of that positioning a few times over the last year.
- With selling from some big shareholders, free float appears to have increased to a point where the stock could be added to a global index in November.
- There is also a possibility of being added to another global index in March, but that is a question for the next year.
Yakult Honsha (2267 JP): Underperformance & Global Index Deletion in Nov
- Yakult Honsha (2267 JP)‘s stock price has continued to slide, and the stock is now trading 53% lower than its highs from 18 months ago.
- The lower market cap should result in the stock being deleted from a global index in November. The stock has underperformed peers but still trades at higher valuations.
- There has been increased positioning over the last few weeks. Short interest is higher since end-August but there has been covering in the last couple of weeks.
UBTech Robotics (9880 HK): Global Index Inclusion Likely in November
- The increase in the stock price over the last 3 months could result in UBTech Robotics (9880 HK) being added to a global index in November.
- There is a fair amount to buy in the stock and cumulative excess volume has picked up since July. Short interest has dropped over the same period.
- The recent drop in the stock price provides a better entry point for a short-term trade as positioning builds up ahead of the potential passive buying.
Nanjing Leads Biolabs (NLB HK): Bags Outlicensing Deal for Pre-Clinical Drug Candidate
- Nanjing Leads Biolabs (NLB HK) entered into an exclusive global license agreement with Dianthus Therapeutics to jointly advance LBL-047, a first and potentially best-in-class pre-clinical asset.
- Leads Biolabs will receive upfront and potential near-term milestone payments up to $38M and an additional $962M in total development and regulatory approval milestones and sales-based milestones across multiple indications.
- Promising autoimmune drug candidate and sufficient cash runway make Dianthus a suitable outlicensing partner for Leads Biolabs. Since LBL-047 is a pre-clinical asset, the upfront payment seems competitive.
💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma
Sign Up for Free
The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network
- ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
- ✓ Personalised Alerts
- ✓ Custom Watchlists
- ✓ Company Analytics and News
- ✓ Events & Webinars
