In today’s briefing:
- Yuanta/P-Shares Taiwan Div+ ETF Rebalance Preview: 3 Changes; US$4bn Trade
- [Japan Offering] Toyota Selling Down Toyoda Gosei (7282) In BIG Offering; 85d ADV, 125% of Max RWF
- Korea’s 25% Dividend Tax Basically Locked In, Market Now Trading the 30% Payout Angle
- KOSPI Size Indices: Lots of Change as Averaging Starts
- UK Backloads A Tax Trap
- [Quiddity Index] Bengo4.com (6027 JP) To TSE Prime and TOPIX Inclusion
- Korea Dividend Tax Cut: Eligibility Criteria & Market Impact on Large Caps, Including Samsung Prefs
- Suzhou Novosense A/H Listing – Growth Has Been Strong but Margins Weak
- HEW: Slow Shovels
- Tata Capital (TATACAP IN): Partial Global Index Inclusion Post-IPO
Yuanta/P-Shares Taiwan Div+ ETF Rebalance Preview: 3 Changes; US$4bn Trade
- With the review period now complete, there could be 3 constituent changes for the Yuanta/P-Shares Taiwan Dividend Plus ETF in December.
- Constituent changes along with capping changes will lead to a one-way turnover of 12.7% and in a round-trip trade of TWD 125bn (US$4bn).
- There are multiple stocks that have same-way or opposite flow from trackers of other Taiwan indices and present some interesting trading opportunities.
[Japan Offering] Toyota Selling Down Toyoda Gosei (7282) In BIG Offering; 85d ADV, 125% of Max RWF
- Last week, before the long weekend, Toyota Motor (7203 JP) and Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group (8316 JP) announced a very big secondary selldown of shares in Toyoda Gosei (7282 JP).
- The selldown is 85x 3mo ADV, 27% of shares out. 125% of Max Real World Float. It’s a lot of stock at $750mm. One wonders where demand is.
- They also announced a big buyback, which is some of it, and there are index impacts, BUT this offering needs to find LOTS of new fundamental owners quickly.
Korea’s 25% Dividend Tax Basically Locked In, Market Now Trading the 30% Payout Angle
- Starting next week, the tax subcommittee is set to hash out the 25% proposal, and with the opposition unlikely to block it, the 25% top rate is basically locked in.
- The street’s treating 30% payout as base case, betting on more upside. The committee may pick it up next week, with headlines likely hitting the KRX tape fast.
- Locals are already chasing 30%+ payout, deep-value names, with gov’t aiming for a Taiwan-style re-rating. If dividend-tax headlines drop next week, these screened names could rip.
KOSPI Size Indices: Lots of Change as Averaging Starts
- The review period for the March rebalance of the KOSPI Size Indices will commence on 1 December and will end on 28 February.
- Nearing the start of the averaging period, we forecast 34 migrating stocks. Among new listings, 1 stock could be added to LargeCap, 2 to MidCap and 2 to SmallCap.
- The upward migrations have outperformed the downward migrations by a lot over the last 3 months. The gap in returns versus the KOSPI2 INDEX is a lot smaller.
UK Backloads A Tax Trap
- The UK’s fiscal hole was even smaller than we thought (£6bn), allowing the government to backload a fiscal tightening that is unsurprisingly focused on tax increases.
- Delaying prudence to an election year is implausible. There will be a substantial deficit in 2029-30, not the current budget surplus in the OBR forecasts based on existing policy.
- Labour is setting up a tax trap for Reform and the Conservatives to say how they’d avoid tax increases, similar to the backloaded spending cuts they myopically ignored in 2024.
[Quiddity Index] Bengo4.com (6027 JP) To TSE Prime and TOPIX Inclusion
- Back in mid-August, Bengo4.Com Inc (6027 JP) (“Bengoshi.com”) announced that it had applied to transfer to TSE Prime. 3+mos later, today it announced it will move on 4 Dec 2025.
- That sets up a TOPIX inclusion for end-January 2026 and then a likely upweight at end-April 2026.
- There is no accompanying offering, and the float is likely small. But the inclusion displaces the current active base. And there’s at least one large holder selling recently.
Korea Dividend Tax Cut: Eligibility Criteria & Market Impact on Large Caps, Including Samsung Prefs
- Market eyed 25% top rate, but 30% is still punchy; <100 people hit it, lower than before, giving big shareholders incentive to rotate back into dividends.
- The new regime hits only companies with 25% payout last year and +10% YoY dividend: lower than the original draft, and the 10% bump is a solid positive.
- Companies >5tn KRW with ≥25% payout last year must boost dividends +10% YoY to get the tax cut; Samsung could add ~1tn KRW, potentially easing its pref discount.
Suzhou Novosense A/H Listing – Growth Has Been Strong but Margins Weak
- Suzhou Novosense Microelectron (688052 CH), an analog chips producer, aims to raise around US$500m in its H-share listing.
- According to Frost & Sullivan, in terms of revenue from analog chips in 2024, SNM ranked fifth among Chinese analog chip companies in the Chinese analog chip market.
- In this note, we look at its past performance and other deal dynamics that might impact the listing.
HEW: Slow Shovels
- UK fiscal policy had an even smaller hole to fill than we expected, with the work to fill it in delayed until the election. There is no dovish pressure on the BoE from this.
- European data releases were relatively resilient again, with household lending and business sentiment broadly increasing. National inflation surprises were offsetting.
- Next week’s Euro area flash HICP is still tracking 2.1% in our forecast. Final PMI releases and the BoE’s decision maker panel survey results are our other release highlights.
Tata Capital (TATACAP IN): Partial Global Index Inclusion Post-IPO
- Tata Capital Limited (TATACAP IN) went public on 13 October 2025 on NSE and has a current market cap of over $15bn.
- Partial inclusion in Global indices is expected in June 2026, as the security fails the float cap threshold in one Global index.
- Free float is projected to increase incrementally following lock-up expiries of anchor investors and pre-offer shareholders.
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