In today’s briefing:
- Gemlife (GLF AU): Index Inclusions Start Later This Year
- Greatland Resources (GGP AU): Big Index Inclusions for Recent IPO
- FWD Group (1828 HK): Offering Details & Index Entry Timeline
- Taishin (2887 TT)/Shin Kong (2888 TT) Merger: Index Flows in July
- HSCI Index Rebalance Preview and Stock Connect (Sep 2025): Plenty of Recent IPOs Could Be Added
- Contact Energy/Manawa Energy: Index Flows as Deal Nears Completion
- AMFI Stock Reclassification Preview (Jun 2025): Active Flows Lead to Passive Flows
- Hong Kong Single Stock Options Weekly (June 30 – July 04): Narrowing Breadth and Rising Put Activity
- Lepu Biopharma (2157 HK): Placing Shares As ADC Pipeline Products Entering Harvesting Stage
- Kawasaki Heavy Industries (7012 JP): Sell into Strength
Gemlife (GLF AU): Index Inclusions Start Later This Year
- Gemlife (GLF AU) is looking to raise A$750m in a primary offering, valuing the company at A$1.58bn. The stock is expected to start trading on 3 July.
- The Puljich family and Thakral Corp (THK SP) are escrowed on their shares till mid 2026 at the earliest.
- Gemlife (GLF AU) could be added to global indexes in November and December this year, but S&P/ASX 300 Index inclusion could take place only in March 2026.
Greatland Resources (GGP AU): Big Index Inclusions for Recent IPO
- Greatland Resources (GGP AU) started trading on the ASX Ltd (ASX AU) on 24 June after selling shares worth A$504m in a primary and secondary offering across Australia/UK.
- Greatland has a full market cap of A$4.9bn and a high free float since Greatland Gold Plc (GGP LN) was listed on the AIM market of the London Stock Exchange.
- Given the large market cap and high float, the stock could be added to multiple indices over the next few months.
FWD Group (1828 HK): Offering Details & Index Entry Timeline
- FWD Group Holdings (FWD HK) is looking to raise up to HK$3.99bn (US$508m) in its IPO, valuing the company at HK$48.82bn (US$6.22bn).
- Cornerstone investors will take up more than half the base offering and that will delay index inclusion to well into 2026.
- FWD Group Holdings (FWD HK) could be added to the HSCI Index and Southbound Stock Connect in December. That could bring some buying into the stock from mainland investors.
Taishin (2887 TT)/Shin Kong (2888 TT) Merger: Index Flows in July
- Taishin Financial Holding (2887 TT) and Shin Kong Financial Holding (2888 TT) announced a Merger of Equals in August 2024 and completion is expected on 24 July.
- Taishin Financial Holding (2887 TT) has underperformed its peers over the last 18 months while Shin Kong Financial Holding (2888 TT) has underperformed its peers following the merger announcement.
- There will be passive flows in the merged entity following the completion of the merger and could help reverse some of Taishin Financial Holding (2887 TT)‘s underperformance.
HSCI Index Rebalance Preview and Stock Connect (Sep 2025): Plenty of Recent IPOs Could Be Added
- We see 28 potential and close adds and 34 potential and close deletes for the Hang Seng Composite Index in September. Some of the stocks are close on market cap/liquidity.
- A lot of the potential adds are very recently listed stocks that have a limited trading history. The low free float could lead to price spikes in the stocks.
- There are stocks that have a very high percentage of holdings via Stock Connect and there could be some unwinding prior to the stocks becoming Sell-only.
Contact Energy/Manawa Energy: Index Flows as Deal Nears Completion
- Contact Energy (CEN NZ) is acquiring Manawa Energy Ltd (MNW NZ) for NZ$1.12/share in cash and 0.583 Contact Energy shares for each share of Manawa Energy.
- Manawa Energy (MNW NZ) is expected to stop trading after the close on 7 July. There will be passive inflows for Contact Energy (CEN NZ) due to increased index shares.
- As a replacement for Manawa Energy Ltd (MNW NZ), there will be an ad hoc inclusion to the S&P/NZX 50 Index at the close of 7 July.
AMFI Stock Reclassification Preview (Jun 2025): Active Flows Lead to Passive Flows
- We forecast 10 stocks moving from MidCap to LargeCap, 11 stocks moving from LargeCap to MidCap, 10 stocks from SmallCap to MidCap, and 13 stocks from MidCap to SmallCap.
- From the new listings, 1 stock is expected to be added to Large cap, 2 stocks are expected to be added to Mid Cap, and multiple stocks to Small Cap.
- There are multiple stocks among the AMFI changes that will be changes for global indices, NIFTY Index, NSE Nifty Next 50 Index and/or Nifty Midcap 150 Index in September.
Hong Kong Single Stock Options Weekly (June 30 – July 04): Narrowing Breadth and Rising Put Activity
- Hong Kong single stocks traded lower in a holiday-shortened week.
- Breadth pulled back sharply from the previous week’s extremes and Put activity picked up noticeably across single stock options.
- Intervention in HKD continues to ramp steadily higher with HKD bumping along top of the range.
Lepu Biopharma (2157 HK): Placing Shares As ADC Pipeline Products Entering Harvesting Stage
- Lepu Biopharma (2157 HK) is placing 93.8M shares at the placing price of HK$5.02 per H Share. The net proceeds from the placing are expected to be approximately HK$463M.
- The company intends to use the proceeds for conducting clinical trial, commercialization, and marketing of the core products, and to fund R&D of new products.
- Lepu ended 2024 with a cash balance of RMB401M, which has been augmented by the upfront payment from recent BD deal. The company need not raise fund in near-term.
Kawasaki Heavy Industries (7012 JP): Sell into Strength
- KHI has retreated 12% from its June 30 high, but is still 69% above its April low, despite guiding for a decline in orders and weak profits in FY Mar-26.
- Orders from Japan’s Ministry of Defense are forecast to drop from ¥772.3 billion to ¥400 billion this fiscal year, while the overall profit of the Aerospace division drops 14%.
- The potential impact of U.S. tariffs on Power Sports & Engines is not factored into guidance, offsetting what otherwise seem to be conservative assumptions.
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