Equity Bottom-Up Archives | Page 26 of 222 | Smartkarma

• Paytm (PAYTM IN) is pivoting post-regulatory setbacks with board overhaul, license reapplications, and focus on high-margin verticals like lending and merchant services.
• Triggers like MDR revival, PPBL embargo removal, and PA license approval could significantly lift monetization, improve take rates, and stabilize investor sentiment.
• While competition is stiff, structural improvements and cost controls position Paytm for a profitable rebound, making it a potential re-rating candidate in FY26.

• Apple Inc. is facing one of the most turbulent moments in its recent history.
• Over the past week, the company has lost over $700 billion in market capitalization, relinquished its crown as the most valuable U.S. company to Microsoft, and seen its shares plummet by 23% across four trading sessions.
• The sell-off comes on the back of escalating trade tensions between the United States and China, with President Donald Trump introducing a 125% tariff on Chinese imports—directly impacting Apple’s China-dependent supply chain.

• In this insight, we provide the top 10 stocks picks and key catalysts in the Korean stock market for the two weeks starting 14 April. 
• Our top 10 picks in the most recent bi-weekly was down 2.5% on average, outperforming KOSPI which was down 4.9% in the same period. 
• The top 10 picks in this bi-weekly include Binggrae, Hyundai Rotem, Krafton, Nongshim, SK Telecom, Hanwha Systems, APR, SK Inc, Korean Air, and Samsung Heavy Industries. 

• AI Nose for healthcare, industrials, and robotics. Ainos is digitizing smell with AI Nose to capture airborne chemical signatures, using AI-powered processes to immediately classify and identify scents in any environment.
• Initially focused on healthcare, Ainos is developing a women’s health test, Ainos Flora with AI Nose, in addition to an elderly care project with Japanese partners to assist caregivers in monitoring seniors.
• Ainos recently entered partnerships with ugo and ASE, expanding AI Nose development to robotics and industrial applications.

In FY24, Ocean Wilsons increased its earnings per share and dividend by 7% and more than 40%, respectively. 2024 was a seismic year for the company as it agreed to sell its 56% holding in Wilson Sons. It will be returning a portion of the sale proceeds to shareholders but the use of the remaining proceeds is still under consideration. Currently, Ocean Wilsons is trading at a c 40% discount to our estimated total asset value of 2,389p/share. Given the pending disposal, we are withdrawing our forecasts.

• Harley-Davidson is navigating a critical crossroads as it searches for a new CEO to replace Jochen Zeitz, who recently announced plans to retire after five years at the helm.
• This leadership transition comes at a precarious time for the iconic motorcycle brand, which is grappling with a sustained decline in sales, intensifying macroeconomic pressures, and the looming threat of retaliatory tariffs—particularly from the European Union.
• In 2024, global retail sales dropped by 7%, with international sales falling a steep 13%, reflecting a broader downturn in discretionary spending.

• Sales increased by JPY476mn (+1.0% YoY), driven by growth in the Creative (Japan) segment, while operating profit decreased by JPY489mn (-11.9% YoY).
• The company forecasts FY02/26 consolidated sales of JPY60.0bn (+19.3% YoY) and operating profit of JPY5.0bn (+38.3% YoY).
• Year-end dividend forecast for FY02/26 is JPY45.0 per share, with a payout ratio of 38.9%.

• Compass Group PLC has released its full-year 2024 financial results, showcasing a strong performance with a 16% increase in operating profit and an 11% growth in organic revenue.
• The company reported a margin progression of 30 basis points, taking it to 7.1%.
• This has been complemented by a net new business growth of 4.2%, further gaining momentum in the second half of the year.

• What you need to know: • We visited Rio2’s Fenix Gold Project near Copiapó, Chile on March 25th.
• • The visit was valuable in better understanding the layout of the project, progress on construction, the scale of the asset, and team behind it.
• • As a reminder, The Fenix Gold Project is the largest fully permitted and financed gold heap leach project in the Americas.

• 1H FY08/25 revenue increased 22.7% YoY to JPY186.8bn, with progress toward full-year forecast at 51.9%.
• Operating profit rose 5.0% YoY to JPY16.6bn, with all segments showing growth except Communications & Energy.
• Subscriber count for U-NEXT increased by 150,000, while former Paravi subscribers declined by 20,000 in 1H FY08/25.

• Strong Q2 beat: Revenue rose 14% YoY and OP jumped 33%, driven by Japan strength and solid winter sales, offsetting China’s continued weakness.
• Guidance tweak: FY business profit raised to ¥540bn, though H2 expectations effectively lowered due to anticipated US tariff impact.
• US expansion continues: 69 stores now open; North America accounts for 7.5% of sales, with future margin mitigation via supply chain shifts and EU/Asia growth.

• Under the US tariffs, we have to seriously consider whether Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) – ADR (TSM US) can achieve 25% growth in 2015.  
• We have conducted two scenario analyses and anticipate a likely loss of above 8.5% in 2025 revenue for TSMC, especially related to Apple (AAPL US).  
• The stock price of Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) – ADR (TSM US) is expected to be somewhat reshuffled in the current US-China tariff environment.  

• PC units grew by 1% in 2024, accelerating to 5% YoY in 1Q25. Best performers: Apple, Lenovo. Higher shipments to the US ahead of potential import tariffs but flat end-demand.
• ~70% of Computers are Made in China, US consumes 25% of total PC. The supply chain is accelerating relocating US-purchased PC out of China, this should be done by end-2025.
• There is a risk of over-built and over-stocking in my view if PC Brands are too optimistic on Windows 10 end-of-support and AI PC upgrades.

• BYD reported C1Q25 net profit up 86%-119% YoY, with the midpoint exceeds our estimate/consensus by 12%/20%.
• We believe this driven by better ASP mix of its products, among other factors;
• We believe a possible China-EU deal on EV market access can be positive for BYD. We raise the TP to HK$400 and place BYD back to TOB BUY.

• The EU is negotiating with India to remove the 100% import duty on fully built cars under FTA.
• Warburg Pincus plans to lead a INR600 – 800 crore rights issue to rescue troubled Fusion Micro Finance (FUSION IN).
• PAG has hired JP Morgan and Morgan Stanley to sell its INR 2.2k crore controlling stake in Nuvama Wealth Management (NUVAMA IN). 

• Chord Energy reported a transformational year in 2024, significantly strengthened by its strategic combination with Enerplus.
• This merger, completed in May 2024, positioned the company as a leading entity in the Williston Basin.
• The integration was marked by operational and corporate synergies, enhancing Chord Energy’s scale and efficiency.

• Merit Medical Systems reported robust financial performance in the fourth quarter of 2024, displaying notable revenue and profit growth.
• The company recorded total revenue of $355.2 million for Q4, reflecting a 9% increase year-over-year on a GAAP basis and 10% on a constant currency basis.
• This exceeded Merit Medical’s growth expectations, which it had projected at 6% to 9%.

• Haemonetics Corporation reported its third-quarter fiscal 2025 financial results, indicating both strengths and challenges within its various business segments.
• The company achieved a revenue of $349 million, reflecting a 4% increase on a reported basis but remaining flat organically.
• Adjusted earnings per share improved by 14% to $1.19.

• MSC Industrial Supply reported a mixed set of results for its fiscal second quarter of 2025.
• The company faced challenges in the current quarter, underscored by a decline in average daily sales by 4.7% year-over-year, indicating a soft demand environment.
• This decline, however, showed slight improvements towards the end of the quarter, with January and February outperforming historical trends.

• Noble Corporation’s fourth-quarter 2024 earnings call provided a comprehensive overview of its operational and financial performance while highlighting key strategic initiatives and market outlook.
• The company recently completed the acquisition of Diamond Offshore, enhancing its positioning in the deepwater drilling market.
• This integration is progressing well, with $50 million of the targeted $100 million synergies already realized, reflecting operational efficiencies.

• TSMC: +18.9% Premium; Soon at a Good Level to Short the Spread
• ASE: +6.5% Premium; Good Level to Short the Spread Given Trading Range Breakdown
• ChipMOS: +6.6% Premium; 2% And Higher Good Level to Short the Spread

• US tariffs could sharply cut Shimano’s H2 operating profit by up to 57%, despite limited direct exposure, due to opaque supply chains via China and Taiwan.
• Valuation would look stretched at 25x EV/EBIT versus historical 20x, if earnings fall short of current guidance.
• Shimano’s ¥530bn net cash pile offers room to boost shareholder returns through buybacks or dividends.

• In this insight, we discuss a pair trade between DL Holdings Co (000210 KS) (go long) and DL E&C (375500 KS) (go short).
• In the past three months, DL Holdings’ share price is down 9.9% versus DL E&C which is up 21%. We believe this gap has become too excessive.
• The shares sold short volume/total traded volume ratio is more than double for DL E&C versus DL Holdings from 31 March to 9 April. 

• The semiconductor sector has been rattled by a wave of tariff escalations, with Nvidia at the center of attention.
• President Donald Trump’s recent imposition of steep new tariffs—34% on imports from China and 32% on Taiwan—sent shockwaves across the global technology industry.
• While semiconductors were initially exempted from the levies, the ambiguity in policy messaging and the potential for future inclusion have raised investor concerns.

• Conagra Brands recently reported its third-quarter fiscal 2025 financial results.
• A nuanced analysis reveals both strengths and challenges the company is navigating in a dynamic macroeconomic environment.
• On the positive side, Conagra Brands highlighted robust consumer demand for its products.

• Concentrix Corporation presented a mixed overview of its performance for the first quarter of fiscal 2025, achieving revenue growth and profitability ahead of guidance, yet facing strategic and operational challenges.
• On the positive side, Concentrix reported a solid demand environment, with a particular emphasis on the growing adoption of their GenAI solutions across its client base, claiming one of the largest scales in global deployments of such technology.
• The company emphasized its strategic focus on integrating AI solutions and expanding its business portfolio to deliver value across a broader client base.

• Lionsgate secured a solid performance in the third quarter of fiscal 2025, demonstrating resilience in a challenging operating environment.
• The Motion Picture segment was particularly strong, highlighted by the successful conversion of three mid-budget films into profitable ventures.
• This performance underscores Lionsgate’s ability to effectively manage mid-range budget productions, capitalizing on steady box office showings, robust business models, and efficient execution.

• Intel is navigating one of the most pivotal moments in its corporate history as new CEO Lip-Bu Tan begins implementing a series of structural reforms aimed at reversing the chipmaker’s prolonged decline.
• In recent weeks, a series of bold announcements and market-moving headlines have brought Intel’s turnaround efforts back into the spotlight.
• The most notable development is a tentative joint venture with Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC), where TSMC is expected to take a 20% stake in Intel’s loss-making manufacturing business in exchange for sharing advanced foundry techniques.

• CLEAR, known for its identity verification platform, reported its fiscal fourth quarter and full-year 2024 results demonstrating both opportunities and challenges.
• The company continues to expand its footprint in the travel sector, with a notable presence in 73% of U.S. airports through 166 lanes nationwide.
• The rollout of the NextGen Identity technology, including innovative systems such as EnVe’s (enrollment and verification Pods), has been a focal point—improving member throughput and enhancing the customer experience significantly.

• Daiseki’s FY02/25 sales declined 2.8% YoY to JPY67.3bn, exceeding the forecast of JPY66.0bn.
• Operating profit fell 3.3% YoY to JPY14.3bn, impacted by TOB-related expenses and heavy snowfall.
• FY02/26 forecast: Sales JPY70.0bn (+4.0% YoY), operating profit JPY15.7bn (+9.7% YoY), OPM 22.4% (+1.1pp YoY).

• Power Integrations, Inc., a company renowned for its high-performance electronic components focused on power conversion, reported its fourth quarter and full-year results, highlighting a mix of challenges and opportunities.
• The company’s Q4 revenue reached $105 million, marking an 18% increase year-over-year but a sequential decline of 9%.
• Despite these mixed signals, revenue for 2024 stood at $419 million, reflecting a 6% decrease from the previous year.

• NCR Voyix’s latest earnings offers crucial insights into the company’s strategic position and operational performance over the fourth quarter of 2024.
• The company reported a decline in revenue, notably from its hardware division, aligning with expectations of a challenging market environment.
• The total revenue stood at $682 million, with adjusted EBITDA showing a significant increase by 75% to $114 million, aided by cost-cutting measures and a focus on recurring revenue streams.

• Frontdoor’s financial performance in the third quarter of 2024 reflects both achievements and challenges for the company as it navigates a fluctuating market environment.
• The company reported a 3% increase in revenue to $540 million compared to the same period last year, alongside a notable rise in gross profit margin by 550 basis points to reach 57%.
• Net income saw a substantial uptick of 40% to $100 million, while Adjusted EBITDA increased by 29% to $165 million.

• From mid-Feb-25 to yesterday, MTK’s stock has declined -18% versus TSM -25%. Similar enough.  But Mediatek is trading at average forward PEx 16.6x whereas TSMC is cheap at 12.8x. 
• Consensus forecasts more growth for TSM over 2025-27, a strong 2025 with EPS up 33%. Less growth for MTK, a slow 2025 with EPS up 9%. Why MTK more expensive? 
• Higher growth but lower PEx, how much risk in TSM earnings? Low valuations could reflect a misunderstanding on the impact of US import tariffs. 

• Braze, a customer engagement platform, reported its fiscal fourth-quarter 2025 results, showcasing several key developments and financial performance metrics.
• The company recorded revenue of $160.4 million, marking a 22% year-over-year increase and a 5% growth from the previous quarter.
• This performance highlights the continued high return on investment (ROI) and enduring value of the Braze Customer Engagement Platform, bolstered by effective global team execution.

• Lululemon Athletica Inc. recently reported its fourth-quarter and full-year financial results, marking another year of growth, while also spotlighting both achievements and challenges.
• The company reported total revenue for the fourth quarter, excluding the 53rd week, increased by 8% year-over-year, or 9% on a constant currency basis.
• Operating margin expanded by 40 basis points to 28.9%, and earnings per share rose by 16%.

• Cable One’s recent earnings presented a mixed set of financial results for its fourth quarter and full-year 2024.
• The company, while navigating competitive pressures and changes in subscriber programs, managed to demonstrate some resilience in strategies aimed at stabilizing its business.
• On the positive side, Cable One reported growth in its business broadband revenue by 2.6% year-over-year, driven by rising demand across its carrier, enterprise, and wholesale segments.

• GameStop Corporation reported its fourth-quarter and full-year financial results for 2022 with a noticeable shift toward profitability and efficient operations amidst a challenging retail environment.
• The company’s transformation over the past couple of years has been a story of significant restructuring and strategic shifts aimed at revitalizing its financial health and market positioning.
• A notable positive from the results is GameStop’s turnaround from a net loss in the fourth quarter of 2021 to a net income of $48.2 million in the same period of 2022.

• DoubleVerify, a company providing digital media measurement solutions, concluded 2024 with several notable achievements and a number of challenges that shape both its financial performance and future outlook.
• Overall, DoubleVerify delivered substantial growth in revenue, achieving a 15% year-over-year increase to $657 million.
• This growth was driven by significant momentum across its three main revenue streams.

• PVH Corp’s recent earnings reflects a mix of achievements and challenges in the fiscal year 2024 and sets cautious expectations for 2025.
• The company, which owns iconic brands Calvin Klein and Tommy Hilfiger, surpassed its initial 2024 guidance both in terms of revenue and non-GAAP EPS.
• However, it faced a decrease in overall revenue compared to previous years, largely attributed to divestitures and external economic factors.

• Chagee is the No. 6 largest teahouse chain in China according to store number.
• Very few teahouses have a per customer transaction higher than Chagee.
• We believe Chagee has advantages in the high price market.

• In this insight, we discuss a pair trade between Korean Air Lines (003490 KS) (go long) and Hanjin KAL Corp (180640 KS) (go short). 
• In the past three months as well as 12 months, there has been a sharp increase in the gap of Korean Air Lines and Hanjin KAL Corp. 
• It is uncertain how much longer Hoban Group will maintain its stake in Hanjin Kal. Hoban could reduce its stake in Hanjin Kal but increase its stake in LS Corp. 

• Management has lowered its volume and margin guidance over the last few quarters even as they have gradually lowered their export share to less than 10%.
• Despite a 40% drop from its high over the last few months JDSL trades at premium to its historic valuations. Significant investments in Indonesia to raise capacity is positive
• A 20-25% increase in volumes (through Indonesia investments) over the next 2-3 years coupled with 20% ROIC and Debt <1X EBITDA implies that premium valuations could sustain.

• ABLBio (298380 KS) announced licensing agreement with GlaxoSmithKline PLC (GSK LN) to develop novel treatments for neurodegenerative diseases by utilizing ABL Bio’s blood-brain barrier (BBB) shuttle platform, Grabody-B.
• ABL Bio is eligible to receive up to £2.075B in research, development, regulatory, and commercialization milestone payments across multiple potential programs. The company will receive tiered royalties on net sales.
• Last October, ABL Bio completed the manufacturing technology transfer for ABL301, a bispecific antibody containing Grabody-B to treat Parkinson’s disease, to Sanofi and unlocked a milestone payment of $5M.

• GoTo Gojek Tokopedia‘s 4Q2024 is likely just the start of the positive impact of its barbell strategy of enticing new users through affordable products before monetising through premium offerings.
• The rapid turnaround of the fintech business as it booked its first quarterly positive adjusted EBITDA was a key standout and was front and centre of management results comments.
• GOTO remains upbeat in its prospects for 2025, providing its first guidance for adjusted EBITDA, and highlighting the positive contribution from fintech and mid-teens growth for ODS. 

• Tariff Headwinds: U.S. import tariffs could wipe out hardware margins, potentially costing Nintendo up to ¥95bn in FY3/26 gross profit.
• Guidance Risk: With bullish consensus expecting ¥450bn in FY3/26 operating profit, upcoming guidance on July 5 may significantly disappoint.
• Valuation Hinges on Recovery: FY3/27 earnings could rebound to ¥600bn if cycle normalises and tariff risks ease—implying a fair 13x EV/EBIT multiple.

• Siemens is acquiring Dotmatics, a SaaS provider for laboratory management, for USD 5.1bn. The acquisition, which is seen as expensive, reflects high multiples of 16.5x EV/sales for FY 2025.  
• This acquisition strengthens Siemens’ position in life sciences by expanding its industrial software offerings. Dotmatics adds a new USD 5.5bn market opportunity, which could grow to USD 11bn.   
• Siemens’ entry into life sciences may challenge Dassault Systèmes, which currently leads the market with its Biovia and Medidata platforms. Siemens’ growing presence in this sector may intensify competition.

• Last week, I had the great pleasure of meeting with Chief Financial Officer Amrit Shrestha and several of his colleagues at Coca-Cola bottler Haad Thip (HTC TB – US$193 million).
• The company is the exclusive producer and distributor of Coca-Cola products across Thailand’s 14 Southernmost provinces.
• The stock has performed beautifully over time, though sideways since 2021. It trades at a 9.6x P/E ratio and a 6.4% dividend yield.

• With recent approval from state regulators to move forward on planned projects in Bristol, RI and Johnston, RI, the company continues to grow the number of facilities operated under its O&O model, a core objective.
• In 1Q25, AMS acquired property in Bristol, RI where it expects to construct a linear accelerator facility that would likely begin treating patients in about 18-24 months & AMS anticipates significant synergies within its expanding Rhode Island footprint.
• We expect these and other potential new projects will likely leverage an ‘asset-light’ approach that includes partnerships to reduce AMS’s upfront capital investment & enable AMS to retain a majority interest in the centers.

• Reviva is a research and development pharmaceutical company with two portfolio compounds targeting nine indications.
• The candidates address multiple related mental disorders, rare diseases & other categories of un met need.
• Reviva’s lead indication in schizophrenia with brilaroxazine (RP5063) completed its 1st Phase III trial & is set to begin its 2nd in 2025.

• We aim at nearly 0% growth QoQ for Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) – ADR (TSM US)‘s revenue in 2Q25, but US tariff can be a changing factor since April, 2025.
• Taiwan Financial Supervisory Commission is announcing on April 6th, 2025 with three temporary methods to prevent a sudden slump of Taiwan stock market today.  
• Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) – ADR (TSM US) is taking about 39.2% of Taiwan stock market value, which is the single largest stock in Taiwan.  

• Komeri plans to expand their addressable market by 75% and to double their current market share to 21%.
• Same store sales of the company’s Pro Stores rose an average of more than 7% in the past 8 quarters, and selling area is expanding at more than 25% annually.
• Yet Komeri trades at just 11x earnings, compared to about 16x for Topix and 18x for the median retail stock.

• Tariff introductions in Vietnam were 46%, PRC 34%, Bangladesh 37%, Indonesia 32%, etc, have rocked the textile complex, and share prices have reacted negatively. 
• The companies with the maximum revenue exposure to the US market are Stella International (1836 HK), with 47%, Crystal International (2232 HK), with 38%, and Lever Style (1346 HK), with 58%.
• We anticipate that the negative sentiment will continue to hinder the sector until a reasonable negotiation occurs. In the meantime, there are no beneficiaries in this trade war.

• SK Bioscience (302440 KS) has initiated phase 3 trial of Sanofi-partnered pneumococcal conjugate vaccine candidate in Australia. This year, Phase 3 trial will be initiated in U.S., Korea, and EU.
• This year, SK Bioscience has initiated global Phase 1/2 trials of mRNA Japanese Encephalitis vaccine candidate in Australia and New Zealand. The company aims to secure interim results by 2026.
• ITD Biologika is targeting for a 17% revenue CAGR during 2024–2028. The company aims to achieve EBITDA margin of 25%+ by 2028 and become IPO ready.

• CK Infrastructure Holdings (1038 HK)‘s share price should pick up as its portfolio of non-US infrastructure assets will become increasingly attractive.
• Its assets will benefit from re-pricing as global inflation rates trend higher. Meanwhile, it will gain from the translation of foreign earnings back to HK$.
• The secured 5.7% and 6.2% dividend yield for FY25F and FY26F makes CKI appealing, especially given a track record of 28 consecutive years of dividend hike.

• 2024 results is significantly below expectations. While revenue had negative growth, SG&A expenses remain high.Coupled with net fair value losses after tax on investment properties, we saw ugly net profit.
• As consumer confidence won’t improve in short term, coupled with competition/corporate strategy lag, we adjusted next three-year growth based on 2024 results. This may increase the success rate of privatization.
• Reasonable valuation of Goldlion is 9-14x P/E due to short-term headwinds.If performance picks up due to effective expansion in online channels or popular products launched, P/E may improve to 12-15x.

• FY02/25 revenue was JPY20.0bn (-8.2% YoY), with a net loss of JPY788mn, impacted by declining sales in Japan and China.
• FY02/26 revenue is projected at JPY22.0bn (+10.3% YoY), with expected operating profit of JPY1.0bn and EPS of JPY31.0.
• ZUIKO’s medium-term plan targets FY02/28 revenue of JPY30bn+, with JPY8.0bn from new businesses, and OPM of 8.1%.

• In this insight, we discuss 20 Korean stocks that could outperform the market in the next two months amid global tariff war and local political turmoil.
• Going forward, we believe these 20 Korean stocks could continue to outperform the market in the next couple of months. 
• As the market tries to digest further the uncertainties due to tariff war and the local Presidential election, these 20 stocks could provide sound defensive outperformance. 

• Licensing-Out partnerships are expected to contribute approximately US$6–7 billion in annual upfront payments, US$12–14 billion in milestone payments, and US$25–30 billion in sales-sharing revenues to China’s innovative drug industry.
• SASAC’s new policy promotes SOE M&A to strengthen industrial chains, especially in weaker sectors like biomedicine. The strategic deployment of state-owned capital is set to gain momentum.
• WuXi AppTec is divesting its stake in WuXi XDC, viewing the shares as overvalued and aiming to lock in profits ahead of a potential price correction.

• JSW group aims to become a complete port and logistics solution provider to end customers, by combining JSWIL’s port infrastructure with Navkar’s inland logistics capabilities (CFS, ICD, PFT,CTO license). 
• Access to Navkar’s 100 acres undeveloped land  in strategic areas offers JSW Infrastructure Ltd( JSWIL) opportunities for further development and expansion of logistics infrastructure.
• JSW targets INR 9,000 crore Capex in logistics by FY30, expecting INR 8,000 crore revenue, INR 2,000 crore EBITDA, and 17-18% ROCE.

• SmartRent is undergoing a strategic transformation toward a Software-as-a-Service (SaaS)-focused business model.
• This shift is reflected in the growth of the company’s recurring SaaS subscriptions, which increased to 38% of total revenue in the fourth quarter, up from 19% in the previous year.
• Annual recurring revenue (ARR) grew to $54.4 million, reflecting a year-over-year increase, and SaaS revenue showed a 17% increase during the same period.

• Endava reported its second quarter fiscal year 2025 results with revenue reaching GBP 195.6 million, a 6.6% increase year-over-year, or 9.1% in constant currency.
• This growth was driven by strong business performance in North America and the company’s core modernization offerings.
• Profit before tax stood at GBP 2.5 million, significantly lower than the GBP 10.6 million a year earlier, highlighting ongoing cost challenges and restructuring impacts.

• GFL Environmental Inc. presented a mixed financial performance in its fourth-quarter and annual earnings call for 2024, showcasing both promising growth strategies and some potential headwinds.
• For the quarter, the company reported consolidated revenue of $1.986 billion, outpacing their expectations due to solid waste organic growth and strategic pricing initiatives.
• The company also highlighted a 7% organic growth in the solid waste segment, a sign of resilience and effective management strategies.

• HCA Healthcare delivered a mixed performance in its fourth-quarter 2024 results, reflecting both strengths and challenges faced during the period.
• Positively, the company continued to demonstrate robust demand for healthcare services, with an overall revenue growth of approximately 6% compared to the previous year.
• Key performance indicators like inpatient admissions showed a healthy upward trajectory, with a 3% increase in both categories when measured on a same-facility basis.

• Huntington Ingalls Industries, Inc. (HII) presented its Q4 2024 earnings results with a mixed outcome, reflecting both opportunities and challenges across its various business segments.
• The company reported revenues of $3 billion for the quarter, a decrease of approximately 5% compared to the same period last year.
• This decline was attributed to reduced revenues across all three of HII’s segments.

• MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings, Inc. reported its financial results for the first fiscal quarter of 2025, with notable developments across its key business segments: Industrial & Defense, Data Center, and Telecom.
• The company posted a revenue of $218 million, an 8.7% sequential increase, and an adjusted EPS of $0.79 per diluted share.
• It generated approximately $63 million in free cash flow and maintained a strong cash position with $657 million in cash and short-term investments.

• Marriott Vacations Worldwide reported solid results for the fourth quarter of 2024, underpinned by strong leisure travel demand and strategic adjustments in sales and marketing approaches.
• The company has successfully expanded its sales channels and promotional strategies, leading to a 7% year-over-year increase in contract sales, with first-time buyer sales growing faster.
• This results from innovative initiatives like virtual tours and sales channels such as roadshows and owner cruises.

• This Nasdaq-listed, Hong Kong-based company hopes to apply Traditional Chinese Medicine (TCM) to significant illnesses like ADHD, but that seems unlikely. The company is a family affair, with all research provided by the CEO’s father, so one wonders how objective scientific assessment can be.
• The stock surged by more than 700% in a month without patent approval, a buyout offer, or other notable news. The CEO funded a share buyback, but rather than demonstrating faith in the company, the repurchase looked suspiciously like a way to inflate the short-term share price, possibly for an equity issue or insider self- enrichment since the CEO’s compensation is tied to market capitalization.
• This is a highly speculative business run by a family team from Hong Kong, thus little trusted in the U.S. and very volatile.

• JSW Steel has grown its domestic steelmaking capacity at CAGR of 14% over the last 2 decades (2x industry) and at 25% lower costs
• Gradual capacity ramp-up at recently completed expansion at Vijayanagar (5m) and actively pursuing 10-15mt of new capacity additions over the next 3-5 years
• Valuations: JSW Steel trades at premium to its 5yr average EV/EBITDA likely due to a) impending imposition of a 12% safeguard duty b) superior capital allocation etc.

• The US imposed a 25% tariff on auto imports, affecting Tata Motors’ JLR unit, where the US accounts for 22% of sales.
• This could shave off 200–300 bps from JLR’s EBITDA margin or weaken US volumes if costs are passed on to consumers.  
• Tata Motors’ FY25 EBIT margin guidance of ≥8.5% looks ambitious; a realistic range may shift to 6.5–7.5% without swift demand or cost-side offsets.

• Shell reaffirmed its strategy, prioritizing efficiency, LNG growth, and shareholder returns, unlike BP’s strategic shift back to hydrocarbons after an aggressive renewables push.
• As the world’s largest LNG trader, Shell plans 4%-5% annual LNG sales growth, capitalizing on rising global demand while maintaining financial discipline and emissions targets
• Shell aims to save USD 5 – 7 billion by 2028, cut capex to USD 20 – 22 billion, and streamline operations to enhance free cash flow and investor returns.

• Steven Madden, Ltd. reported solid financial results for the full year 2024, with revenue increasing 15.2% year over-year to $2.3 billion and diluted earnings per share rising 9% to $2.67.
• The company emphasized four key business drivers: international expansion, category diversification beyond footwear, growth in direct-to-consumer (DTC) channels, and reinforcement of its U.S. wholesale footwear business.
• International revenue rose 12%, with notable growth in the EMEA region (18%), including Europe, the Middle East, and South Africa.

• Reynolds Consumer Products, Inc. reported its financial performance for the fourth quarter and full year of 2024.
• The company experienced a modest volumetric growth of 1% in the fourth quarter across its business units, which include Reynolds Cooking & Baking, Hefty Waste & Storage, Presto, and Hefty Tableware.
• Despite navigating a challenging market environment, the company achieved its strongest profitability since the COVID 19 surge in 2020, highlighted by expanded margins and earnings surpassing initial projections.

• During 9MFY25, Paramount Bed Holdings Co Lt (7817 JP) reported 3% YoY revenue growth to ¥75B, mainly driven by the nursing care businesses.
• Due to higher SG&A expenses, operating profit decreased 15% YoY to ¥7.2B and net profit was down 11% YoY to ¥5.9B.
• Paramount Bed has reiterated FY25 guidance, which calls for 2% YoY revenue growth, while higher SG&A is expected to erode operating profit by almost 6% YoY.

• Boise Cascade’s fourth quarter and full-year 2024 results reflect a mix of achievements and challenges.
• For the full year, Boise Cascade recorded a net income of $376.4 million or $9.57 per diluted share.
• This performance was supported by growth initiatives in their distribution business, notable capital investments aimed at bolstering their Engineered Wood Products (EWP) growth strategy, and significant capital returns to shareholders.

• BigCommerce’s fourth quarter and fiscal year 2024 earnings announcement revealed a mixed financial performance as the company navigates its transformational strategy towards more efficient and profitable operations.
• The company’s non-GAAP operating income showed a remarkable improvement, surpassing $19 million, which is nearly double the original forecast, while operating cash flow reached $26 million, marking a $50 million increase from 2023.
• These outcomes underscore BigCommerce’s effective cost management, attributed to decreased ineffective sales and marketing expenditure and a 10% headcount reduction.

• What you need to know: • We visited Amerigo’s MVC processing facility in Rancagua, Chile and were highly impressed with the site and plant, as well as the scale of the operation.
• • The copper price increased substantially after Q4, positioning the Company for even stronger cash flow in Q1/25.
• • For more information on ARG, you can find all our research on our website here and an interview we hosted with CEO Aurora Davidson, here.

• Dream International (1126 HK) posted strong results, with revenues up 2% and profits down 11% YoY, demonstrating effective cost control in a challenging competitive environment.
• Net cash on the balance sheet ended at 1.52 bn HKD (vs 1.35 bn), representing 33% of market capitalization. The company rewarded shareholders with 60 cents of dividend (~8.9% yield). 
• Trading at 6x/3x PE/EV-EBITDA FY24, with an 8.9% dividend yield and an average 10-year ROCE of 20%, the stock is worth exploring from here. 

• We remain steadfast in our belief in our company’s future. That said, there are no quick fixes. We need to demonstrate consistent execution and results over a sustained period. Frank Yeary
• Intel’s ELT scored themselves a remarkable 29.7 out of 35 for their 2024 “Product Leadership” goal, despite mounting data center market share loss and Gaudi being an abject failure
• While Pat Gelsinger’s departure from Intel was labelled a “retirement” last December, the Proxy Statement refers to it as a “resignation”. Which was it?

• The Swedish startup has formally filed for a US IPO and is aiming to raise $1 billion, at a valuation of between $15 billion and $20 billion. 
• Buy now, pay later is one of the biggest shifts in modern finance. Klarna isn’t just BNPL anymore: it has a whole shopping and payments ecosystem.
• Klarna may be a heavyweight in BNPL, but it’s not alone in the ring. Heavy hitters like Affirm, Afterpay, and PayPal are also scrambling for dominance.

• CNMC Goldmine Holdings (CNMC SP) is a cash-rich (net cash: 20 million SGD) gold play listed on the SGX with assets in Malaysia. Its market cap is 155 million SGD.
• The company is a high-cost gold play, with cash costs of 1200 USD/oz excluding royalties. It is in the process of ramping production from 26,000 oz to 34,000 oz/annum.
• Based on a 3000 USD/oz gold price, the stock trades at 5.7x PE, 4.0x EV-EBITDA with a 2.9% dividend yield (based on a 30% payout ratio). 

• WNS Holdings reported its fiscal 2025 third-quarter results, highlighting some key financial metrics and operational dynamics.
• The company achieved net revenue of $319.1 million, marking a year over-year increase of 1% on a reported basis, though it remained flat when adjusted for constant currency.
• Sequentially, however, there was a more robust performance with revenue increasing by 2.7% on a reported basis and 3.2% in constant currency terms.

• American Express Global Business Travel reported strong financial performance for the fourth quarter and full year of 2024, showcasing a record year for adjusted EBITDA and revenue.
• The company exceeded the midpoint of its guidance range, with adjusted EBITDA rising by 26% year-over-year.
• These results were driven by growth in technology-enabled productivity, a scalable cost base, and robust free cash flow generation.

• As of today, Walmart finds itself at a crossroads.
• The retail giant, long seen as a haven during economic uncertainty, saw its market capitalization drop by nearly $22 billion in a single day after the Conference Board reported that U.S. consumer confidence hit a 12-year low.
• This marks the fourth consecutive monthly decline, with the expectations index plummeting to 65.2 — a level that typically signals a looming recession.

• Spectrum Brands Holdings, Inc. had a mixed first quarter of fiscal year 2025, as revealed in their recent financial results.
• The company experienced a modest increase in net sales, driven by strategic investments and several successful initiatives across its business segments.
• Net sales grew by 1.2% overall, with organic sales, excluding unfavorable foreign exchange impacts, rising by 1.9%.

• GoodRx, the company focused on providing users with discounts on prescriptions and other healthcare services, recently reported its financial results for the fourth quarter and full year of 2024.
• The company highlighted several strategic initiatives and partnerships aimed at driving future growth, including enhanced partnerships with pharmacies, pharmaceutical manufacturers, and healthcare professionals.
• In terms of financial performance, GoodRx posted fourth-quarter revenue of $198.6 million and an adjusted EBITDA of $67.1 million.

Refocusing a business takes time, especially when it involves replacing legacy systems, renegotiating framework agreements, integrating numerous acquisitions and rebuilding the balance sheet. The process becomes even more challenging if it coincides with weak market conditions and a significant level of geopolitical uncertainty. Dustin Group’s management is actively addressing these challenges, including a rights issue announced with its results. The business is well positioned, leaving investors with one key question: when is the right time to buy? We believe the next six months may provide the answer.

• In this insight, we discuss a pair trade between LG Chem Ltd (051910 KS) (common) and LG Chem (051915 KS) (preferred). 
• The price ratio (LG Chem common/preferred) is now at 2.16x, which is more than 2 STD (standard deviations). Our trading strategy involves revert to the mean. 
• One of the key reasons why LG Chem (preferred)’s share price has fared much worse YTD than LG Chem (common) is due to much larger selling by the foreign investors. 

• The Hong Kong Alpha simulated portfolio returned 0.97% in March outperforming its benchmark by 1.1%.  Since inception the portfolio has outperformed Hong Kong indexes by 8% to 11%.
• The portfolio has generated alpha while maintaining a correlation of 0.8 and a beta of 1.05.  The HK Alpha portfolio has a Sharpe ratio of 2.19 YTD.
• On 3/31/25 we sold Shanghai Electric Group Company (2727 HK) , Citic Securities (H) (6030 HK) , Sands China (1928 HK) , and Sunny Optical Technology Group (2382 HK)

• Murakami-Led funds have quietly amassed a 26.97% stake in Sumi Mitsui Construction while also acquiring a 5.01% stake in its subsidiary, Sumiken.
• With the Tokyo Stock Exchange clamping down on parent-child listings, Sumiken’s future as a public company looks increasingly uncertain, raising buyout speculation.
• City Index’s small stake in Sumiken may serve as a defensive move to block rival bids, reinforcing its influence over SMC’s long-term strategy.

• CEO Mr TAN confronts what’s wrong: Intel needs better product performance, to listen to the market needs. Intel needs Foundry processes that support customers’ designs. Not the other way around. 
• Product presentation very off-base: robotaxi, AI-PC, Gaudi 3 is back as Intel’s AI strategy. Foundry non-announcement: 18A risk production is starting – of course it is, otherwise 18A is flawed. 
• Consensus is expecting a swift turnaround in 2026-27. There is currently no reason to believe this. On these rosy expectations, the stock trades at 19x 2026 EPS.

• Sarimelati Kencana (PZZA IJ) booked a profit in 4Q2024, and the company will remain profitable in 1Q2024, with a strong uptick expected in 2Q2024 and a profit expected for FY2025. 
• The company has been focused on reducing costs and improving efficiencies, booking a record gross profit margin in 4Q2024, and is now able to book a profit with lower sales. 
• Sarimelati Kencana remains a leading quick-service food provider in Indonesia, with prospects improving as it starts to book sustainable profits, with significant upside if it books sales at pre-COVID levels. 

• Copa Holdings delivered a mixed yet robust performance in the fourth quarter and full year of 2024, illustrating its resilience and operational efficiency in a fluctuating market.
• Positively, the company reported an operating margin of 21.9% for the year, which reflects consistent execution of its business model focused on cost efficiency and operational excellence.
• An increase in capacity by 8.6% year-over-year was aligned with previous guidance.

• Atour (ATAT) reported C4Q24 revenue 0.7%/5.8% higher than our estimate/consensus, which translate to 0.5%/4.7% higher in non-GAAP net income, thanks to hotel supply chain consolidation and pillow retail sales.
• Management’s guidance for a steeper-than-consensus decline in 2025’s RevPAR are conservative in our view. We see a “low-before-high” RevPAR pattern in 2025, supported by tightened hotel supply and government stimuli.
• We keep the TP at US$37/ADS and maintain as travel sector TOP BUY

• Warburg Pincus invests in Japan living sector by acquiring a 16,000-room portfolio.
• Proprium Capital beats out Ho Bee Land with a $228M bid for an Australian homebuilder.
• Hillhouse’s Rava secures majority stake in Dash Living with $150M investment; Ex-Macquarie exec Robson to advise on ESR privatization.

• BPO provider WNS is reported exploring a potential sale after attracting acquisition interest. The company has a market capitalisation of USD 2.89bn and operates across various sectors.   
• We deem Capgemini could afford to acquire WNS, but such a move may not align with its strategic focus, despite the diversification benefits that a hypothetical acquisition would offer.   
• The rise of generative AI could transform BPO, but it remains unclear whether Capgemini will pursue acquisitions in BPO, given its past strategy of focusing on cloud, digital and engineering.

• Advanced Energy Industries, Inc. reported its fourth quarter and full-year 2024 financial results, demonstrating a strong finish to the year after a rocky start.
• The company achieved notable highlights, with Q4 revenue reaching $450 million, an 11% increase sequentially and 3% year-over-year, driven by strong performance in semiconductor and data center computing markets.
• Advanced Energy’s semiconductor revenue, at $227 million, marked a 15% sequential increase and 19% year-over-year growth.