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Daily Brief Health Care: MorphoSys AG and more

By | Daily Briefs, Healthcare

In today’s briefing:

  • Novartis Strikes for Possible Myelofibrosis Blockbuster


Novartis Strikes for Possible Myelofibrosis Blockbuster

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

  • Novartis offers an agreed €68/share, 89% premium, for MorphoSys AG (MOR US) in a bet that pelabrisib could become a blockbuster to treat myelofibrosis (possibly reaching peak sales of $1.1-1.5 billion).
  • Considering that the shares of Morphosys were trading in the low teens in November, I believe that shareholders will be happy to part with the shares.
  • Spread (gross/annualised) is 4.65%/18.09% (assuming settlement by 20 May). Novartis believes pelabrisib is definitely worth the risk. Long.

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Daily Brief Health Care: China Medical System, Concord Biotech Ltd, ProTA Therapeutics Pty , Resmed Inc and more

By | Daily Briefs, Healthcare

In today’s briefing:

  • China Medical System (867 HK) – A Wise Choice in a Bear Market
  • Concord Biotech’s US$650m Lock-Up Expiry – Some Could Be Tempted to Book Multi-Bagger Gains
  • Prota raises US$21M led by Singapore’s SPRIM for its peanut allergy therapy | e27
  • ResMed Inc: Potential expansion of sleep awareness and population health management strategies to boost growth! – Major Drivers


China Medical System (867 HK) – A Wise Choice in a Bear Market

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • CMS’s way of in-licensing products has shifted from CSO model to asset-purchase model so as to enhance control on the assets. But the transformation hasn’t been recognized by the market.     
  • Despite outstanding fundamentals, CMS’s valuation remains low. Doubts about the Company’s real R&D capabilities/core competitiveness and the negative image due to past financial fraud could be the reasons.
  • CMS would encounter performance headwinds in 2023/2024 due to VBP, but revenue/profit growth is expected to pick up in 2025. It’s still a good defensive choice in a bear market.

Concord Biotech’s US$650m Lock-Up Expiry – Some Could Be Tempted to Book Multi-Bagger Gains

By Clarence Chu

  • Concord Biotech Ltd (658823Z IN) listed in India on 18th Aug 23 after raising US$188m. The IPO had been a 100% secondary selldown with Helix Investment selling its entire stake.
  • Concord Biotech (Concord) is an India-based biopharma firm, which develops and manufactures fermentation-based active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs).
  • Coming up for six-month lockup expiry on 7th Feb 24 are the firm’s pre-IPO shareholders, along with a portion of its promoters’ stake.

Prota raises US$21M led by Singapore’s SPRIM for its peanut allergy therapy | e27

By e27

  • Singapore-based health sciences VC firm SPRIM Global Investments has led the US$21 million funding round (equity and debt) of Australian biotech firm Prota Therapeutics.
  • The fresh funding will be used to advance the development of Prota’s peanut allergy remission oral therapy, PRT120, which is being prepared for the phase 3 clinical investigation.
  • The new investment will advance the chemistry, manufacturing, and controls (CMC), accelerate the path to an investigational new drug application (IND), and expand Prota’s executive management team to bring on board critical expertise in late-stage drug development and commercialisation.

ResMed Inc: Potential expansion of sleep awareness and population health management strategies to boost growth! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • In the Q2 FY2024 earnings for ResMed, the company registered strong execution across its entire business, reflecting in double-digit top and bottom-line growth.
  • The results were primarily driven by double-digit global growth in both devices and its Software as a Service (SaaS) business.
  • ResMed is addressing a significant problem considering there are over 2 billion people worldwide suffering from sleep apnea, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, respiratory insufficiency resulting from neuromuscular disease, or insomnia.

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Daily Brief Health Care: WuXi AppTec and more

By | Daily Briefs, Healthcare

In today’s briefing:

  • Latest Impact of the US Biosecure Act on WuXi AppTec/WuXi Bio/WuXi XDC – China CXO Really Game Over?


Latest Impact of the US Biosecure Act on WuXi AppTec/WuXi Bio/WuXi XDC – China CXO Really Game Over?

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • Based on the latest updates, it’s still uncertain to see a positive turnaround.There’ve been no effective ways to evade.Debate about restricting Chinese biopharmaceuticals has never gone away in US politics.
  • Nobody can say with 100% certainty whether the Bill will be passed/how much impact it will have. Until the dust settles, any rebound in share prices is difficult to sustain.
  • The market is preparing for the worst-case scenario, but if the final Bill is less stringent than expected, shares of WuXi AppTec and its subsidiaries would rebound.Here’re different bottom-fishing strategies.

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Daily Brief Health Care: GDMC , CSPC Innovation Pharmaceutical-A, Intuitive Surgical and more

By | Daily Briefs, Healthcare

In today’s briefing:

  • GDMC nets US$21M in Series A for its next-gen advanced genetic therapies | e27
  • China Healthcare Weekly (Feb.2) – US Strike on China CXOs, CSPC Innovation, Peach Picking Period
  • Intuitive Surgical: Are They Capitalizing Enough On The Expanded Adoption Of Robotic Surgery? – Major Drivers


GDMC nets US$21M in Series A for its next-gen advanced genetic therapies | e27

By e27

  • Genetic Design and Manufacturing Corporation (GDMC), a design and manufacturing organisation focusing on next-generation advanced genetic therapies, has secured US$21 million in Series A funding.
  • Asian private equity firm Celadon Partners led the round, which also saw participation from WI Harper Group, SEEDS Capital, and NSG Ventures.
  • The funds will be used to accelerate novel technology and process efficiency improvements to drive greater manufacturing cost reductions for partners who aim to advance medicines through clinical trials and towards commercialisation.

China Healthcare Weekly (Feb.2) – US Strike on China CXOs, CSPC Innovation, Peach Picking Period

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • If there’s ultimately substantial negative policies in the field of biopharmaceuticals between China and US, APIs will be the segment with the highest risk. But CXO would also be affected.
  • Now we have entered the harvest period after the previous peak of financing round in China’s biotech industry, which has become a concentrated “peach picking period” for foreign pharmaceutical enterprises.
  • Considering the low market sentiment, we’re cautious on companies with high valuation elasticity before they come up with convincing products. So, we don’t recommend investors rush to bottom-fish CSPC Innovation.

Intuitive Surgical: Are They Capitalizing Enough On The Expanded Adoption Of Robotic Surgery? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Intuitive Surgical enjoyed a strong 2023, seeing increasing use of its platforms in hospitals and improvement in system capacity to manage growth.
  • Full year growth for procedures was 22%, led by general surgery in the US and diverse growth in international markets such as Germany, France, the UK, and Ireland.
  • However, there was a slowdown in growth across bariatric procedures due to the use of GLP-1 drugs for obesity.

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Daily Brief Health Care: Paradigm Biopharmaceuticals and more

By | Daily Briefs, Healthcare

In today’s briefing:

  • Paradigm Biopharma – Termination of coverage


Paradigm Biopharma – Termination of coverage

By Edison Investment Research

Edison Investment Research is terminating coverage on Atlantis Japan Growth Fund (AJG), Paradigm Biopharma (PAR), The European Smaller Companies Trust (ESCT), The Brunner Investment Trust (BUT), Channel Islands Property Fund (CIPF), Sequana Medical (SEQUA), RTW Biotech Opportunities (RTW), Itaconix (ITX), Endeavour Mining (EDV), Riverstone Credit Opportunities Income (RCOI) and Molecure (MOC). Please note you should no longer rely on any previous research or estimates for this company. All forecasts should now be considered redundant. Previously published reports can still be accessed via our website.


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Daily Brief Health Care: Avrobio Inc and more

By | Daily Briefs, Healthcare

In today’s briefing:

  • Some updates


Some updates

By Turtles all the way down

  • Recently Avrobio (AVRO) announced a reverse merger with Tectonic Therapeutic, which was a bit unexpected.
  • And disappointing. From what I have read from people more knowledgeable about biotechs, they have some promising treatments in development with pretty impressive insiders.
  • But I have no idea how to value this. Net cash will be <$1/share post merger so I am closing this with a small loss at $1.25.

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Daily Brief Health Care: M3 Inc, Wuxi Biologics and more

By | Daily Briefs, Healthcare

In today’s briefing:

  • M3: Earnings Slowdown Is Inevitable
  • Wuxi Biologics (2269.HK) – The Latest Updates Related to 2024 Performance Worth the Attention


M3: Earnings Slowdown Is Inevitable

By Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

  • M3 Inc (2413 JP) reported 3QFY03/2024 results today. Both revenue and OP decreased 1.6% and 7.5% YoY respectively and fell below consensus estimates.
  • Medical Platform’s revenues declined YoY while overseas segment’s top line growth has been slowing down raising concerns over m3’s growth prospects.
  • Given continued decline in earnings, it seems that m3 will struggle to meet its full-year guidance suggesting there is further downside.

Wuxi Biologics (2269.HK) – The Latest Updates Related to 2024 Performance Worth the Attention

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • Li Ge has begun increasing his holdings, but we’re not sure whether this move is really confident about the prospects of WuXi Bio, or another buy low sell high/capital operation.
  • The actual situation of WuXi Bio is not necessarily optimistic. Due to geopolitical risks, WuXi Bio has to start striving for more domestic orders. However, price reduction seems inevitable.
  • Although WuXi Bio released optimistic expectations for 2024 project number/outlook, there may be another announcement of lower-than-expected performance in the future,which would be a devastating blow to investors’ confidence/management’s credibility.

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Daily Brief Health Care: LianBio, Harrow Health , Zhangzhou Pientzehuang Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd., Cipla Ltd and more

By | Daily Briefs, Healthcare

In today’s briefing:

  • Lianbio -Ads (LIAN) – Tuesday, Oct 31, 2023
  • Harrow Inc (HROW) – Tuesday, Oct 31, 2023
  • Zhangzhou Pientzehuang Pharmaceutical (600436.CH) 2023 Results – Get Ready for More Downside Ahead
  • Cipla (CIPLA IN): Q3FY24 Result- Continued Growth Trajectory Across Key Markets; Positive Outlook


Lianbio -Ads (LIAN) – Tuesday, Oct 31, 2023

By Value Investors Club

Key points (machine generated)

  • LianBio is winding down its portfolio of in-licensed drug candidates and returning cash to shareholders.
  • The company recently sold exclusive rights to develop and commercialize mavacamten in certain areas of Asia to Bristol Myers Squibb for $350 million.
  • LianBio will have approximately $600 million in net cash after the transaction, exceeding its current market capitalization of around $434 million. A strategic review is ongoing, and it is expected that the company will wind down its business and distribute cash to shareholders, potentially leading to a higher share price reflecting its cash holdings.

This article is sourced from an online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


Harrow Inc (HROW) – Tuesday, Oct 31, 2023

By Value Investors Club

Key points (machine generated)

  • Harrow is a pharmaceutical company specializing in prescription medications for ophthalmologists and optometrists.
  • The company offers FDA-approved branded ophthalmic pharmaceuticals and innovative compounded prescription medicines.
  • Harrow owns commercial rights to ten branded ophthalmic pharmaceutical products and operates ImprimisRx, a pharmaceutical-compounding business.

This article is sourced from an online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


Zhangzhou Pientzehuang Pharmaceutical (600436.CH) 2023 Results – Get Ready for More Downside Ahead

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • Pientzehuang’s 2023 results were well below expectations. The performance in 23Q4 was terrible. 2024 performance would continue to be under pressure, without any reversal signals to be seen.
  • In the process of China’s de-financialization, growth potential of assets with strong financial attributes would weaken.Pientzehuang’s ability to raise prices won’t be as strong as rigid-demands such as telecommunications tariffs.
  • Pientzehuang’s stock price performance doesn’t follow traditional TCM companies.It’s not surprising if Pientzehuang’s valuation drops to PE of 15x or even lower. We recommend investors not to rush to bottom-fish.

Cipla (CIPLA IN): Q3FY24 Result- Continued Growth Trajectory Across Key Markets; Positive Outlook

By Tina Banerjee

  • In Q3FY24, Cipla Ltd (CIPLA IN) recorded revenue of INR66B, up 14% YoY, and EBITDA margin of 24.2%, driven by double-digit growth across India, North America, and South Africa.
  • North America business reported highest ever revenue of $230M. India revenue is up 12% YoY, supported by growth across branded prescription, trade generics, and consumer health.
  • EBITDA margin for the full year is trending at a higher end of earlier guidance range of 23–24%. Peptide product launches in the U.S. should strengthen near-term growth prospect.

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Daily Brief Health Care: Shenzhen Mindray Bio-Medical Electronics, Avadel Pharmaceuticals PLC, Oryzon Genomics and more

By | Daily Briefs, Healthcare

In today’s briefing:

  • Mindray to Acquire $927 Million Stake in APT Medical – the Logic and Concerns Behind
  • Avadel Pharmaceuticals -Adr (AVDL) – Monday, Oct 30, 2023
  • Oryzon Genomics – KOL event: Offering a real-world solution in BPD


Mindray to Acquire $927 Million Stake in APT Medical – the Logic and Concerns Behind

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • Mindray has encountered bottleneck in performance growth. So, it urgently hopes to bring “new growth stories”. APT Medical’s current growth momentum is commendable, and could also complement Mindray’s product line.
  • We saw poor stock price performance of both after the announcement. High acquisition premium and the possibility that APT Medical’s future performance fall short of expectations are among the reasons. 
  • In fact, both sides got what they wanted. We advise investors to be patient.Perhaps, Mindray would indeed make a breakthrough from this acquisition, which is also a blow to Microport.  

Avadel Pharmaceuticals -Adr (AVDL) – Monday, Oct 30, 2023

By Value Investors Club

Key points (machine generated)

  • AVDL is a pharmaceutical company that has recently launched LUMRYZ, a drug used to treat Narcolepsy, a rare sleeping disorder.
  • LUMRYZ is an improved version of two existing drugs, Xyrem and Xywav, which generate $1.9 billion in annual revenue and have around 16,000 patients on the drug.
  • LUMRYZ aims to address the inconvenience of the unusual dosing profile of Xyrem and Xywav, which require patients to take two doses, with the second dose taken in the middle of the night.

This article is sourced from an online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


Oryzon Genomics – KOL event: Offering a real-world solution in BPD

By Edison Investment Research

Oryzon hosted a key opinion leader (KOL) event highlighting the potential of vafidemstat in borderline personality disorder (BPD). The KOLs discussed the limited options for treating BPD, as there are no approved drugs, and the current therapies are often ineffective. While the PORTICO trial did not reach statistical significance on its primary endpoints, vafidemstat was favoured over placebo in all efficacy measures, with statistical significance in two key secondary endpoints. During the event, the KOLs shared their perspectives from working with BPD patients, and claimed that improvements of 25% or over, across any measure of overall severity and agitation/aggression, would mark a clinically meaningful outcome. As this was achieved in PORTICO, we believe that vafidemstat has the potential to be an effective treatment option for this underserved patient population. Oryzon is conducting a detailed analysis of the trial results and plans to request an end-of-Phase II (EoP2) meeting with the FDA in Q224 to discuss a registrational Phase III programme.


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Daily Brief Health Care: WuXi AppTec, Shouhui Tech and more

By | Daily Briefs, Healthcare

In today’s briefing:

  • WuXi AppTec (2359.HK/603259.CH) – Behind the Plunge Is a War
  • Shouhui Tech Pre-IPO Tearsheet


WuXi AppTec (2359.HK/603259.CH) – Behind the Plunge Is a War

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • The approval rate of Draft Bill is very low. So, it’s more of a “strangulation” of investment sentiment. But considering the 2024 US presidential election, similar negative proposals may resurface. 
  • WuXi AppTec has little control over the entire situation.There’s “valuation discount” for China CXOs due to geopolitical conflicts. It’s difficult to completely rule out the possibility of “deliberate short selling”. 
  • If look deeper, considering “sensitive situations” at present, to some extent, we may have already been in a financial war.The goal of short selling is to pick up cheap chips. 

Shouhui Tech Pre-IPO Tearsheet

By Clarence Chu

  • Shouhui Tech (SHOU HK) is looking to raise around US$200m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. The bookrunners on the deal are CICC, and Huatai International.
  • Shouhui Tech (Shouhui) is an online life and health insurance intermediary service provider in China.
  • According to F&S, Shouhui was the third largest online insurance intermediary in China in terms of GWPs of long-term life and health insurance in 2022, with a 7.1% market share. 

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