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In today’s briefing:

The Beat Ideas: Northern Arc Capital – A Niche Player in a Crowded Field?
Saatvik Green IPO – Making Hay While the Sun Shines on Valuations

The Beat Ideas: Northern Arc Capital – A Niche Player in a Crowded Field?

Northern Arc is fast shifting toward direct retail Lending (D2C), while leveraging originator partnerships and technology; recent rate cuts and regulatory relief are improving cost of funds & capital efficiency.
Northern Arc’s mix of structured finance, co-lending, and fund management creates steady fee income, making it more resilient than traditional NBFCs relying mainly on heavy lending assets.
Northern Arc is a differentiated NBFC benefits from inclusion & fintech growth, but valuation relies on retail execution, risk control, and asset quality pressures.

Saatvik Green IPO – Making Hay While the Sun Shines on Valuations

By Himanshu Dugar

Time for another Solar Photovoltaic module manufacturer to list undeterred by the tepid listing for Vikram Solar
Largely a commoditised business with a potential technological threat. Solar PV companies in India continue to trade at exceptional valuations of 20-30 times trailing EBITDA
Saatvik, despite being smaller in scale vs peers and in face of intensifying competition is being priced at 14-15 times our FY27E EBITDA (peers trade at 14-16x)

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Sep 18

Daily Brief India: HDFC Bank, Physicswallah Limited, SRM Contractors, Zinc, Styrenix Performance Materials, Urban Company and more

In today’s briefing:

HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN): Ready for the Rally with Tactical Low-Cost Options
Physicswallah Ltd Pre-IPO Tearsheet
The Beat Ideas- SRM Contractors: A Niche Play in India’s Infrastructure Push
Zinc Rally – Supply-Led Momentum Near US$3,000/T: Can It Last?
The Beat Ideas: Styrenix Performance Ltd – Unlocking Synergies with Acquisition of INEOS Thailand
Much Expected, Much Priced In — Why Urban Company Has Little Upside Left?

HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN): Ready for the Rally with Tactical Low-Cost Options

Context:HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN) remains in a bullish setup. Quantitative models highlight further upside potential in the near term and identify key support levels.
Trade Idea: With implied volatility near multi-year lows (12th percentile), long call strategies are favored. Suitable expiries and strikes are outlined, with an alternative structure discussed for reducing premium outlay.
Why Read: This Insight combines directional analysis with volatility signals, highlighting a tactical options strategy where low implied volatility and bullish probabilities align, offering investors defined risk/reward.

Physicswallah Ltd Pre-IPO Tearsheet

By Akshat Shah

Physicswallah Limited (2076103D IN) is looking to raise about US$434m in its upcoming India IPO. The deal will be run by Axis, Kotak, GS, and JPM.
Physicswallah Ltd (PWL) offers test preparation courses for competitive examinations, and other courses such as for upskilling, across 13 education categories, including JEE, NEET, and UPSC, among others.
According to Redseer, PWL was among the top-five education companies in terms of revenue in India and one of the fastest-growing companies in terms of revenue growth during FY22-24.

The Beat Ideas- SRM Contractors: A Niche Play in India’s Infrastructure Push

SRM Contractors (SRM IN)‘s strategic focus on high-margin projects like tunnels and slope stabilization, positions it to benefit from the government’s infrastructure push.
Company has given guidance of INR 900Cr of revenue and 500bps margin improvement in the coming year.
Order book reached a record INR 1,476 crore as of Aug-25, giving strong revenue visibility for the next two to three years, equivalent to approximately 2.8 times its FY25 revenue.

Zinc Rally – Supply-Led Momentum Near US$3,000/T: Can It Last?

By Rahul Jain

Supply-Led Rally: Zinc has rebounded ~15% to ~US$3,000/t, driven by mine curtailments, smelter shutdowns, collapsing TCs, and low inventories.
China Stimulus Tailwind: Beijing’s CNY 1tn package lifts sentiment for galvanised steel, which makes up ~60% of zinc demand, reinforcing price momentum.
Valuation Impact: Hindustan Zinc justifies a premium on pure-play exposure, while Vedanta offers cheaper diversified optionality; sustainability of prices above US$3,000/t remains the key investor question.

The Beat Ideas: Styrenix Performance Ltd – Unlocking Synergies with Acquisition of INEOS Thailand

Styrenix, after returning to promoter control, is stepping up capacity expansion and riding demand tailwinds from ABS, SAN, PS driven by white goods, automotive, and packaging.
India’s demand for styrene‐based polymers is accelerating (styrene demand projected 15% growth in FY2025-26) and government policy (Atmanirbhar, petchem investment) is increasingly favorable.
Styrenix offers a strong lever to India’s structural growth in engineering plastics, but valuation must account for margin cyclicity, FX exposure, and capex risk.

Much Expected, Much Priced In — Why Urban Company Has Little Upside Left?

Urban Company has delivered FY25 profitability and strong revenue growth, its IPO was oversubscribed ~100×, listing at ~57–58% premium. But many growth levers are now under pressure.
At its current price, even modest slippages (in margin, in expansion pace, in competition) could sharply reduce returns. The risk/reward seems tilted towards downside in near‑to‑mid term.
Investors should watch closely how UC executes outside its “easy” markets (Tier‑1 / large cities), how it manages competition and costs, and whether post‑IPO lock‑ups/quarterly earnings present buying windows.

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Sep 17

Daily Brief India: HDFC Bank, Indegene, Jindal Steel, Orkla India Ltd., Urban Company, Tata Motors ADR and more

In today’s briefing:

HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN) Tactical Outlook: Will The Rally Continue?
The Beat Ideas: Indegene Ltd- The Quiet Tech Player Powering Big Pharma
Naveen Jindal’s Bid for Thyssenkrupp Steel Europe – Sensible Valuation, Execution Critical
Orkla India Pre-IPO – Strong Market Presence, Growth Yet to Catch Up
Urban Company IPO Trading – Highest Demand so Far This Year
Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN) Tactical Outlook: Will The Rally Continue?

By Nico Rosti

HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN) has been in a mild pullback since the end of July. The stock closed up for 2 weeks but has not reached any significative overbought level.
This week HDFC Bank went down a bit, stayed above the Q1 support level but this pattern is very bullish, in the past it gave way to long, profitable rallies.
We cannot say for sure if the stock will rally up from here, but if it does, consider profit targets north of 1034 (Q3), and it could rally higher.

The Beat Ideas: Indegene Ltd- The Quiet Tech Player Powering Big Pharma

Indegene is shifting from transactional work to large-scale, transformative “Tectonic” deals, securing over US$1 million from two paid pilots in Q1 FY26.
This pivot moves the company up the value chain, creating a durable competitive moat and positioning it as a strategic partner, not just a vendor.
Indegene’s strong balance sheet and focused M&A strategy will likely accelerate this high-value growth, cementing its role as a key player in pharma’s digital future.

Naveen Jindal’s Bid for Thyssenkrupp Steel Europe – Sensible Valuation, Execution Critical

By Rahul Jain

Funding not a hurdle: Promoter strength provides comfort despite past negative precedents.
Valuation undemanding: Entry at ~US$440–475/t is below replacement cost and past cycle-peak deals.
Execution heavy: Success depends on managing restructuring, integration, and EU policy commitments.

Orkla India Pre-IPO – Strong Market Presence, Growth Yet to Catch Up

By Akshat Shah

Orkla India Ltd. (0752506D IN) is looking to raise about US$300m in its upcoming India IPO.
Orkla India is a multi-category food company offering a diverse range of spices and convenience food products, catering to every meal occasion across breakfast, lunch, dinner, snacks, beverages and desserts.
In this note, we talk about the company’s historical performance.

Urban Company IPO Trading – Highest Demand so Far This Year

By Sumeet Singh

Urban Company (UC) raised around US$220m in its heavily subscribed India IPO.
UCL is a tech-enabled platform offering home and beauty services delivered by trained professionals at customer’s location.
We have looked at the past performance in our previous note. In this note, we talk about the trading dynamics.

Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

By Trung Nguyen

UST yields declined 2-3 bps yesterday, amid limited macro news and ahead of the Fed’s expected 25-bp rate cut on Wednesday.
The yield on the 2Y UST fell 2 bps to 3.54%, while that on the 10Y UST was down 3 bps at 4.04%.
Equities rose to fresh record highs, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq up 0.5% and 0.9%, respectively.

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Sep 16

Daily Brief India: Sun Pharmaceutical Industries, KRBL Ltd, Tata Capital Limited, Bank Of Baroda and more

In today’s briefing:

Sun Pharma’s Halol Hurdles; No Major Impact on Operations
KRBL Ltd- Not Just Another Resignation
Unpacking KRBL’s Corporate Challenges
Tata Capital IPO – Jinxed by Tata Motors Finance
Exiting the Long Position “pain Trade” on Union Bank of India; Stick with Long Position on Baroda

Sun Pharma’s Halol Hurdles; No Major Impact on Operations

Sun Pharma’s innovative medicines like Ilumya, Cequa, Winlevi, and Leqselvi are driving strong growth, now contributing 20% of revenues. But the Halol plant remains under USFDA restrictions, blocking new approvals.
Specialty medicines such as Ilumya are fueling profitable growth, but continued compliance issues at Halol damage regulatory confidence and delay approvals for new products in the US market.
Sun Pharma’s growth is supported by its specialty portfolio and strong India presence, but improving Halol’s compliance record is essential to rebuild trust and unlock higher market valuations.

KRBL Ltd- Not Just Another Resignation

By Nitin Mangal

Shares of KRBL Ltd (KRB IN) dropped as much as 12% intraday on September 15th, owing to resignation of Independent Director, Mr. Anil Kumar Chaudhary.
His letter highlights suppression of dissent, lack of transparency in decision-making, questionable receivable write-offs, and CSR mismanagement among several governance concerns currently at the company.
When triangulated with auditor qualifications, committee overlaps, CSR lapses, frequent Board/CS exits, and major write off, a pattern of weak checks and board oversight emerges.

Unpacking KRBL’s Corporate Challenges

Independent Director Anil Kumar Chaudhary resigned in September 2025 citing serious governance issues including suppression of dissent, withholding of information, arbitrary financial decisions, and board process irregularities.
These recent events suggest that previous governance controversies are not fully resolved, raising issues around board transparency, independent oversight, and risk to stakeholder trust.
While KRBL’s operational performance remains strong, this development raises serious red flags about the company’s governance culture.

Tata Capital IPO – Jinxed by Tata Motors Finance

By Sreemant Dudhoria,CFA

This note discusses the superlative historical track record of Tata Capital Limited (TATACAP IN) pre merger with Tata Motors Finance.
It also focusses on financial metrics of Tata Motors Finance and its financial track record.
Finally, how post merger of both companies the finance metrics has changed and what would be the likely valuation of IPO is discussed in this note.

Exiting the Long Position “pain Trade” on Union Bank of India; Stick with Long Position on Baroda

By Victor Galliano

We cut our losses on our long position on Union Bank of India (UBI), whilst sticking with our core conviction buy name Bank of Baroda
UBI has a slightly higher structural credit risk profile than Baroda, in our view, with UBI’s slightly bigger share of exposure to agriculture and MSME credit
Baroda is now our sole buy in Indian banks; it has lesser credit quality headwinds than UBI for similar valuations, whilst having potential to expand returns over the medium term

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Sep 15

Daily Brief India: Kotak Mahindra Bank, Adani Ports & Special Economic Zone and more

In today’s briefing:

Relative Value Opportunities in Asia-Pac, Pair Trade Roundup (15 Sep)
Eleven Indian Stocks with Strong Earnings Delivery, Healthy Balance Sheet and Reasonable Valuations

Relative Value Opportunities in Asia-Pac, Pair Trade Roundup (15 Sep)

Context: This Insight follows up on previously highlighted relative value opportunities, using a statistical methodology based on mean-reversion to identify opportunities in paired securities.
Highlights: Currently nine pair trade opportunities across four markets and four sectors persist.
Why read: Statistical analysis offers a unique perspective on relative value. Gain insights into actionable statistical pair trade opportunities and monitor performance of previously highlighted pairs.

Eleven Indian Stocks with Strong Earnings Delivery, Healthy Balance Sheet and Reasonable Valuations

By Manishi Raychaudhuri

India’s spectacular underperformance over the past 12 months relative to Asia has been driven primarily by dismal earnings delivery by corporates, leading to persistent EPS estimate downgrades.
We identify stocks with strong earnings delivery, i.e. EPS estimate upgrades over past 1, 3 and 6 months, forecast EPS growth >10%, net D/E < 1 and PEG < 1.4x.
We screen 11 stocks from industrials, healthcare, materials and property. Most have appreciated significantly over 6- and 12-month timeframes, establishing that the market tends to reward superior earnings delivery.

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Sep 14

Daily Brief India: Kotak Mahindra Bank and more

In today’s briefing:

Kotak Mahindra Bank (KMB IN) Vs. Bajaj Finserv (BJFIN IN): Stat-Arb Pair Trade in Indian Financials

Kotak Mahindra Bank (KMB IN) Vs. Bajaj Finserv (BJFIN IN): Stat-Arb Pair Trade in Indian Financials

Context: The Kotak Mahindra Bank (KMB IN) vs. Bajaj Finserv (BJFIN IN) price-ratio has deviated more than two standard deviations from its one-year average, presenting a potential relative value opportunity.
Highlights: Going long Kotak Mahindra Bank and short Bajaj Finserv targets a 6% return.
Why Read: Essential for quantitative traders seeking mean-reversion opportunities, with detailed execution framework, risk management protocols, and historical simulation showing the statistical basis for this relative value play.

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Sep 13

Daily Brief India: Kiri Industries, Infosys Ltd, Vadilal Industries, GMR Hyderabad International Airport and more

In today’s briefing:

Kiri’s $700 Million Exit From DyStar – What Next?
Infosys Buyback: Tax-Inefficient for Shareholders?
The Beat Ideas: Vadilal Industries – Will Professional Management Improve Operational Excellence?
Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

Kiri’s $700 Million Exit From DyStar – What Next?

Kiri Industries has signed a deal to sell its 37.6% stake in DyStar Global to Zhejiang Longsheng for US$697 million (~INR 5,800 crore), concluding a decade-long Singapore court battle.
The payout is multiple times Kiri’s current market cap and marks one of the strongest minority shareholder wins globally.
The DyStar exit removes litigation overhang and hands Kiri a war chest. Now, execution of the copper and fertilizer project will define the future of the company.

Infosys Buyback: Tax-Inefficient for Shareholders?

By Nitin Mangal

Infosys Ltd (INFO IN) made headlines in the market after approving share buyback worth INR 180 bn at INR 1800 per share.
The buyback is the largest in company’s history and represents 2.4% of the paid up capital.
However, from the shareholders lens, the buyback would be tax-inefficient, after the regulatory changes which came in effect from Oct 2024.

The Beat Ideas: Vadilal Industries – Will Professional Management Improve Operational Excellence?

Appointment of a digital-savvy CEO and professionalized board strengthens management, positioning Vadilal for sustained growth and corporate transformation.
Robust distribution, innovative production, and premium parlours drive competitive edge and market leadership.
Resolution of internal family disputes and promoter group merger streamlines operations, though potential dilution could affect minority shareholders.

Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

By Leonard Law, CFA

In today’s Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: GMR Hyderabad, SK Hynix
Long-end UST yields fell yesterday, on the back of a solid auction for 30Y notes. In addition, market expectations for Fed rate cuts were firm, following the in-line core CPI data and higher than expected jobless claims.
The UST curve bull flattened, with the yield on the 2Y UST stable at 3.54%, while that on the 10Y UST declined 2 bps to 4.02%. Equities continued to rally, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq up 0.8% and 0.7%, respectively.

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Sep 12

Daily Brief India: Infosys Ltd Sp Adr, Urban Company, Asian Energy Services, Awfis Space Solutions, LIC Housing Finance, Tega Industries and more

In today’s briefing:

Indian IT | Urge to the Boards – Stop the Buybacks
Urban Company IPO: Will India’s Home Services Giant Clean Up on the Dalal Street?
Asian Energy-Oilmax Merger: From Service Provider to Integrated Energy Player?
Dev Accelerator IPO Review: Tier 2 Focus, Backward Integrated Player
Long LIC Housing (LICHF IN) Vs. Short Bank of India (BOI IN): Statistical Arbitrage Pair Trade
Tega Industries Ltd: Leap into the Global Big League with Molycop Acquisition

Indian IT | Urge to the Boards – Stop the Buybacks

By Pranav Bhavsar

Indian IT outperformed over 10 years, but recent underperformance and weak R&D spending raise questions on innovation versus high dividend and buyback payouts.
AI disruption threatens coding demand and outsourcing models, risking productivity shocks, workforce layoffs, and urban consumption downturns if companies don’t adapt with innovation.
Boards must prioritize bold investments and acquisitions over capital returns, positioning Indian IT as innovation leaders rather than risk-averse cash generators.

Urban Company IPO: Will India’s Home Services Giant Clean Up on the Dalal Street?

India’s home services market, valued at INR 5,210 billion, is projected to reach INR 8,580 billion by FY2030 at a CAGR of 10–11% .
Urban Company’s core Indian business has turned profitable, with its EBITDA for this segment improving from a 9.72% loss in FY23 to a 3.30% profit in FY25.
The company’s annual consumers grew from 4.76 million in FY2023 to 6.5 million in FY2025, while average spend rose from INR 3,786 to INR 4,079 during the same period.

Asian Energy-Oilmax Merger: From Service Provider to Integrated Energy Player?

Asian Energy Services (AOS IN) has received board approval for the merger of promoter entity Oilmax Energy, with share swap ratio: 117 shares of AESL for 10 shares of Oilmax.
The merger is a strategic move to consolidate OEPL’s asset ownership, including producing oil and gas fields, with AESL’s execution and services capabilities.
The valuation of the parent company is looking costlier, and a reduction in promoter stake makes things skeptical in transaction.

Dev Accelerator IPO Review: Tier 2 Focus, Backward Integrated Player

Dev X planning to double the operational capacity in next two years.
Company is also planning to repay certain debt, while its tier-2 focus and backward integration provides them edge over its peers
Operationally, they are better than peers, evident from longer period lease and high occupancy rates

Long LIC Housing (LICHF IN) Vs. Short Bank of India (BOI IN): Statistical Arbitrage Pair Trade

Context: The LIC Housing Finance (LICHF IN) vs. Bank Of India (BOI IN) price-ratio deviates more than two standard deviations from its one-year average, presenting a potential relative value opportunity.
Highlights: Going long LIC Housing Finance (LICHF IN) and short Bank Of India (BOI IN) targets a 7% return.
Why Read: Essential for quantitative traders seeking mean-reversion opportunities, with detailed execution framework, risk management protocols, and historical simulation showing the statistical basis for this relative value play.

Tega Industries Ltd: Leap into the Global Big League with Molycop Acquisition

Tega Industries has announced its intent to acquire a controlling stake in Molycop at a USD 1.48 billion enterprise value, in consortium with Apollo Funds.
The deal is nearly 10x Tega’s size, and will redefine its global positioning across the mining consumables and equipment value chain.
Integration risks loom large, but if executed well, this move transforms Tega from a niche Indian export champion into a global leader in mineral processing solutions.

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Sep 11

Daily Brief India: Urban Company, IDBI Bank Ltd, Lalithaa Jewellery Mart Ltd and more

In today’s briefing:

IPO Review: Urban Company – India’s Largest Marketplace for At-Home Services
IDBI Bank’s Stakeholder Enrichment Programme Begins at the Top
Lalithaa Jewellery Mart Pre-IPO: Topline Momentum Masks Underlying Weaknesses

IPO Review: Urban Company – India’s Largest Marketplace for At-Home Services

By Himanshu Dugar

With rising affluence, India’s home services’ is fast evolving with a focus on enhancing the convenience and quality of life for households. Online home services to grow at 16–22% CAGR.
Urban Company is the largest player (62% market share) with a recognised brand, ~50+k active professionals offering services across 17+ at-home service categories to 6+mn active customers
IPO looks reasonably priced at 7-8x FY27 revenues, considering Indian tech peers trade between 6-10x. We estimate FY25-27 revenue CAGR at 22-25% vs 27% during FY22-25

IDBI Bank’s Stakeholder Enrichment Programme Begins at the Top

By Hemindra Hazari

Only very few senior executives have benefitted from privatisation of IDBI Bank
Hefty remueration increases given to CEO and two Deputy Managing Directors
Major improvement in the bank’s performance on account of government led injection of equity and bank’s share price has under-performed peers.

Lalithaa Jewellery Mart Pre-IPO: Topline Momentum Masks Underlying Weaknesses

By Hong Jie Seow

Lalithaa Jewellery Mart Ltd (1607844D IN) is looking to raise US$200m in its upcoming India IPO.
Lalithaa Jewellery Mart Ltd (LJML) is a jewellery retailer operating as”Lalithaa”, offering a range of gold, silver, and diamond jewellery tailored to regional preferences in southern India.
In this note, we look at the company’s past performance.

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Sep 10

Daily Brief India: Central Bank Of India, Urban Company, Kotak Mahindra Bank, Paushak Ltd, Vedanta Ltd and more

In today’s briefing:

Stat-Arb Pair Trade: Long Central Bank Of India (CBOI IN) Vs. Short Indian Overseas Bank (IOB IN)
Urban Company IPO – Profitability Just Before the IPO Appears to Be a Mirage
Kotak Mahindra Bank Placement – SMBC’s Kotak Exit to Power Yes Bank Entry
Business Breakdown: Paushak Ltd – Phosgene Chemistry Powering Long-Term Growth
Vedanta’s Risky Diversification into JP Associates;Instead of Debt Reduction

Stat-Arb Pair Trade: Long Central Bank Of India (CBOI IN) Vs. Short Indian Overseas Bank (IOB IN)

Context: The Central Bank Of India (CBOI IN) vs. Indian Overseas Bank (IOB IN) price-ratio has deviated more than two standard deviations from its one-year average, presenting a potential relative value opportunity.
Highlights: Going long Central Bank Of India (CBOI IN) vs. short Indian Overseas Bank (IOB IN) targets a 5% return to the statistical mean reversion level.
Why Read: Essential for quantitative traders seeking mean-reversion opportunities, with detailed execution framework, risk management protocols, and historical simulation showing the statistical basis for this relative value play.

Urban Company IPO – Profitability Just Before the IPO Appears to Be a Mirage

By Sreemant Dudhoria,CFA

Urban Company (UCL IN) reported profits in FY25 after years of losses, but the improvement is largely due to temporary cost compression and one-off accounting adjustments.
Revenue growth remains robust (INR11,445m in FY25 vs INR 6,366m in FY23), but profitability sustainability is questionable given competition and structural risks.
Deferred tax credits (INR 2112m in FY25) inflated net profit to INR 2,398m despite thin operating profit (Adj. EBITDA only ₹121m, 1.06% margin).

Kotak Mahindra Bank Placement – SMBC’s Kotak Exit to Power Yes Bank Entry

By Akshat Shah

Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation (SMBC) aims to raise around US$700m via a cleanup of its 1.65% stake in Kotak Mahindra Bank (KMB IN).
SMBC received RBI’s approval last month to buy a 24.99% stake in Yes Bank (YES IN). As per media reports,the cleanup is to procure funds for its Yes Bank stake.
In this note, we run the deal through our ECM framework and comment on deal dynamics.

Business Breakdown: Paushak Ltd – Phosgene Chemistry Powering Long-Term Growth

Paushak is undergoing a INR 240 crore capex program to expand its downstream capacities and move into semi-specialized products, impacting near-term profitability.
The company’s strong market position in phosgene derivatives and custom manufacturing for global players underpins its long-term growth potential despite current financial pressures.
While elevated valuations reflect short-term capex strain, Paushak’s long-term growth trajectory and strategic expansion reinforce its strong market outlook, maintaining a bullish stance for the future.

Vedanta’s Risky Diversification into JP Associates;Instead of Debt Reduction