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Daily Brief India: Kiri Industries, HDB Financial Services Ltd, Kent R O Systems, Poonawalla Fincorp and more

By | Daily Briefs, India

In today’s briefing:

  • Kiri Industries (KIRI IN): Heads I Make 50%; Tails I Don’t Lose Much
  • HDB Financial IPO: Valuation Insights
  • HDB Financial Services IPO – Strong Franchise, Solid Backing, But Pricing Demands Delivery
  • Kent R O Systems Ltd IPO- Purity at a Price
  • The Beat Ideas: Poonawalla Fincorp Ltd.- Leading the Charge in Digital-First Financial Services


Kiri Industries (KIRI IN): Heads I Make 50%; Tails I Don’t Lose Much

By Himanshu Dugar

  • Dyes and pigments player Kiri Industries is set to realise $580mn post-taxes for its 37% stake in Singapore based DyStar Global; ~50% above its current marketcap of $370mn.
  • Adjusting for Debt repayment, we estimate that once proceeds have been recieived and pending warrants have been converted, cash in books will stand at INR ~600/share vs CMP: 570
  • The company’s core dyes business, its 40% stake in Lonsen Kiri Chemicals India and its copper investments could be worth 300+share taking SOTP to ~900

HDB Financial IPO: Valuation Insights

By Arun George

  • HDB Financial Services Ltd (0117739D IN) is India’s seventh-largest non-banking financial company (NBFC). It is seeking to raise Rs125 billion (US$1.4 billion).
  • I discussed the fundamentals in HDB Financial IPO: The Investment Case. The shares will be listed on 2 July.
  • My valuation analysis suggests the HDB is fully priced at the IPO price range of Rs 700- 740 per share. I would avoid the IPO.

HDB Financial Services IPO – Strong Franchise, Solid Backing, But Pricing Demands Delivery

By Rahul Jain

  • Offer: ₹12,500 crore IPO (₹2,500 crore fresh issue + ₹10,000 crore OFS); price band ₹700–740 implies a ₹61,250 crore valuation.
  • Track Record & Use of Funds: 15% AUM CAGR and 41% PAT CAGR over FY21–25; proceeds to bolster Tier-1 capital and fund growth.
  • Valuation Caution: Backed by HDFC Bank with deep rural reach, but 3.9x P/BV implies a 27% ROE—well above current levels—leaving little margin for execution slippage.

Kent R O Systems Ltd IPO- Purity at a Price

By Nitin Mangal

  • Kent R O Systems (6592700Z IN) Kent R O Systems Ltd plans to come up with its IPO
  • The company is the second largest player in the Indian water purifier market with a market share of about 20%, behind Eureka Forbes.
  • We are concerned with the related party transactions of the company, especially with the promoters. The lease rental policy, coupled with some impairments, and trademark infringement matter also attracts attention.

The Beat Ideas: Poonawalla Fincorp Ltd.- Leading the Charge in Digital-First Financial Services

By Sudarshan Bhandari

  • Poonawalla Fincorp is targeting a 5–6x AUM growth over five years, driven by new product launches, digital innovation, and branch expansion in the gold loan segment.
  • Backed by the Cyrus Poonawalla Group and led by seasoned professionals, the company’s low cost of borrowing and tech-first approach enhances its competitive positioning in the NBFC space.
  • The shift toward secured lending, digital underwriting, and MSME focus suggests a more resilient and scalable growth model, improving visibility on profitability and asset quality.

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Daily Brief India: HDB Financial Services Ltd, HealthCare Global Enterprises and more

By | Daily Briefs, India

In today’s briefing:

  • HDB Financial IPO: The Investment Case
  • Healthcare Global (HCG): Beyond Consolidation Now, Next Two Years Could Be Strong
  • HDB Financial Services IPO – Parent Brand and Easing Macros Should See It Through


HDB Financial IPO: The Investment Case

By Arun George

  • HDB Financial Services Ltd (0117739D IN) is India’s seventh-largest non-banking financial company (NBFC). It is seeking to raise Rs125 billion (US$1.4 billion). 
  • The proposed IPO comprises a primary raise of Rs25 billion (US$388 million) and a secondary raise of  Rs100 billion (US$1.2 billion) by the parent. 
  • The fundamentals are average at best, as HDB does not outperform its NBFC peers on key performance indicators. 

Healthcare Global (HCG): Beyond Consolidation Now, Next Two Years Could Be Strong

By Ankit Agrawal, CFA

  • HCG  continues to scale up well with the emerging centers reporting 32% YoY revenue growth in Q4FY25. Q4FY25 revenue from established centers also grew strong at 22% YoY.
  • International footfalls have resumed strong, led by which the revenue in the South Mumbai center grew 38% YoY. Revenue in Kolkata center also grew well at 22% YoY.
  • HCG has been in consolidation phase over the last four years. Now, the next two years should witness strong growth in profitability, led by margin expansion and continued volume growth.

HDB Financial Services IPO – Parent Brand and Easing Macros Should See It Through

By Sumeet Singh

  • HDB Financial Services is looking to raise around US$1.5bn in its upcoming India IPO.
  • HDBFS is a leading retail-focused non-banking financial company (NBFC) in India, in terms of total gross loan book size, according to the CRISIL Report.
  • We have looked at the past performance in our previous note. In this note, we talk about the IPO pricing.

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Daily Brief India: Orkla India Ltd., Oswal Pumps, Lalithaa Jewellery Mart Ltd, Apollo Hospitals Enterprise, Trent Ltd, Kotak Mahindra Bank, SGX Rubber Future TSR20 and more

By | Daily Briefs, India

In today’s briefing:

  • Orkla India Ltd. Pre-IPO Tearsheet
  • Oswal Pumps IPO Trading – Decent Anchor; Strong Overall Demand
  • Lalithaa Jewellery Mart Ltd Pre-IPO Tearsheet
  • Apollo Hospitals (APHS IN): Sell – Priced for Perfection!
  • Trent’s Zudio: The Fast Fashion Trend Reshaping India’s Retail
  • Bajaj Finance (BAF IN) Vs. Kotak Mahindra Bank (KMB IN) – Trade Exit and Take Profit
  • Indian NR Production Marginally Improves, Consumption Down


Orkla India Ltd. Pre-IPO Tearsheet

By Troy Wong

  • Orkla India Ltd. (OI) is looking to raise about US$300mn in its upcoming India IPO. The deal will be run by ICICI, Citi, JPM, and Kotak.
  • It’s a multi-category Indian food company offering a diverse range of products that cater to every meal occasion, from breakfast and lunch to dinner, snacks and beverages and desserts.
  • OI was one of the top four companies in terms of revenue from operations among select leading species and convenience foods peers in FY24, as per Technopak Report.

Oswal Pumps IPO Trading – Decent Anchor; Strong Overall Demand

By Akshat Shah

  • Oswal Pumps (1019841D IN) raised about US$162m in its India IPO.
  • Oswal Pumps Ltd (OPL) specializes in the manufacturing of solar-powered and conventional pumps, electric motors, and related components for agricultural, residential, and industrial applications.
  • We have looked at the company’s past performance and valuations in our previous notes. In this note, we will talk about the trading dynamics.

Lalithaa Jewellery Mart Ltd Pre-IPO Tearsheet

By Rosita Fernandes

  • Lalithaa Jewellery Mart Ltd (1607844D IN)  (LJML) is looking to raise about US$200m in its upcoming India IPO. The bookrunners for the deal are AnandRathi and Equirius.
  • LJML is a jewellery retailer operating under the brand name “Lalithaa”, offering a range of gold, silver, and diamond jewellery tailored to regional preferences in southern India.
  • As per the CRISIL Report, the company recorded the highest operating revenue per store among key organised jewellery players in India during FY22-9M25.

Apollo Hospitals (APHS IN): Sell – Priced for Perfection!

By Avien Pillay

  • We are bullish on the long-term growth of the hospital sector in India.
  • We are, however, concerned that Apollo will face intense competition as it expands.
  • A 53 FPE does not factor in the high cost of expansion and potential challenges.

Trent’s Zudio: The Fast Fashion Trend Reshaping India’s Retail

By Nimish Maheshwari

  • Zudio has rocketed to 765 stores, now half of Trent’s revenue, with FY-25 sales topping to A Billion dollars and 244 outlets added in one year.
  • Its asset-light FOCO rollout, 15-day design-to-rack cycle and sub-INR 999 pricing are redefining India’s value-fashion economics and pressuring rivals to mimic.
  • Trent Ltd (TRENT IN) is no longer a steady Westside play; Zudio’s runaway scale and margins reposition the group as India’s fastest-growing, mass-market fashion juggernaut.

Bajaj Finance (BAF IN) Vs. Kotak Mahindra Bank (KMB IN) – Trade Exit and Take Profit

By Gaudenz Schneider

  • Context: This article provides an update on a previously identified pair trading opportunity between Kotak Mahindra Bank (KMB IN) and Bajaj Finance (BAF IN), based on statistical mean reversion analysis.
  • Key Insights: The trade has now reached its exit signal as the price ratio reverted to its one-standard deviation band, yielding a +4.7% return.
  • Why Read It: For investors interested in quantitative trading strategies, this article demonstrates how statistical arbitrage can generate short-term alpha and highlights actionable similar opportunities in the current market.

Indian NR Production Marginally Improves, Consumption Down

By Vinod Nedumudy

  •  FY 2024-25 NR production at 875,000 tons, consumption 1.41 mn tons  
  •  Compound rubber imports go up by 44.5% to 245,407 tons in FY 24-25  
  •  Replanting supported primarily by pineapple farming contractors

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Daily Brief India: National Stock Exchange, KPIT Technologies, Knowledge Realty Trust and more

By | Daily Briefs, India

In today’s briefing:

  • How SEBI’s Expiry Day Overhaul Impacts NSE & BSE ?
  • KPIT Tech: Strong Deal Wins Despite Tough Environment Attests Strong Competitive Positioning
  • Knowledge Realty Trust Pre-IPO – The Negatives – Not All Assets Have Been Doing Well


How SEBI’s Expiry Day Overhaul Impacts NSE & BSE ?

By Nimish Maheshwari

  • Starting September 1, 2025, BSE will shift its weekly expiry to Thursday, while NSE’s weekly expiry will move to Tuesday, reducing overlap between the two major exchanges. 
  • The move aims to streamline operations, reduce volatility, and increase uniformity across exchanges, aligning with global standards and institutional preferences. 
  • BSE’s shift to Thursday expiry could benefit its market share, but NSE’s Tuesday expiry may help it regain some of the ground lost in recent months, intensifying competition.

KPIT Tech: Strong Deal Wins Despite Tough Environment Attests Strong Competitive Positioning

By Ankit Agrawal, CFA

  • KPIT Technologies (“KPIT”) reported $280mm worth of deal wins in Q4Y25, well beyond the typical run-rate of $150mm+, despite the tough demand environment, which demonstrates KPIT’s strong competitive positioning.
  • KPIT’s Q4FY25 PAT excluding one-time income grew 18%+ YoY in INR and 15% YoY in constant currency (CC) terms. Revenue growth was 15% YoY and 3% QoQ in CC terms.
  • Margins continued to be strong with Q4FY25 EBITDA margin at 21.1%. With this, the full-year FY25 EBITDA margin ended at 21%, in line with the upgraded guidance.

Knowledge Realty Trust Pre-IPO – The Negatives – Not All Assets Have Been Doing Well

By Akshat Shah

  • Knowledge Realty Trust (258259D IN) is planning to raise about US$558m through its upcoming India IPO. The deal has been downsized from an earlier estimated deal size of about US$712m.
  • Knowledge Realty Trust (KRT) owns and manages a high-quality office portfolio in India covering 87% of India’s office supply and gross absorption between FY16-9M24, as per the CBRE report.
  • In this note, we talk about the not-so-positive aspects of the deal.

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Daily Brief India: Bajaj Finance Ltd, Knowledge Realty Trust, Geojit Financial Services, Zydus Lifesciences Ltd, Amara Raja Energy & Mobility and more

By | Daily Briefs, India

In today’s briefing:

  • Bajaj Finance: Decent FY25, All Set for a Strong FY26
  • Knowledge Realty Trust Pre-IPO – The Positives – Premium Market Positioning, Healthy Forecasts
  • The Beat Ideas: Geojit Financial- Riding on Its Customer Base to Build a ₹20,000 Cr Wealth Business
  • Business Breakdown: Zydus Lifesciences ~ Bet on R&D and New Launches to Fill the Revenue Gap
  • Amara Raja Energy & Mobility: Revenue Growth Offset by Margin Pressures, Strategic Capex Continues..


Bajaj Finance: Decent FY25, All Set for a Strong FY26

By Ankit Agrawal, CFA

  • Bajaj Finance Ltd (“BAF”) reported a healthy Q4FY25, thus closing the full-year FY25 on a strong note.  AUM ended FY25 at INR 416,661cr, a growth of 26% YoY.
  • Customer franchise had crossed 100mm and is now close to 102mm. Notably, Bajaj Finserv App now has 70mm+ customers. FinAI transformation is also progressing well.
  • While FY25 had some challenges due to higher credit cost and NIM compression, BAF is all set to post a strong FY26 led by stable asset quality and NIM.

Knowledge Realty Trust Pre-IPO – The Positives – Premium Market Positioning, Healthy Forecasts

By Akshat Shah

  • Knowledge Realty Trust (258259D IN) is planning to raise about US$558m through its upcoming India IPO. The deal has been downsized from an earlier estimated deal size of about US$712m.
  • Knowledge Realty Trust (KRT) owns and manages a high-quality office portfolio in India covering 87% of India’s office supply and gross absorption between FY16-9M24, as per the CBRE report.
  • In this note, we talk about the firm’s historical performance.

The Beat Ideas: Geojit Financial- Riding on Its Customer Base to Build a ₹20,000 Cr Wealth Business

By Sudarshan Bhandari

  • Geojit is targeting INR 20,000 crore in PMS AUM within three years from INR 1200 Crore, backed by new leadership, expanded RM hiring, and deep NRI-retail presence.
  • This signals a shift from cyclical broking to stable, high-margin wealth management boosting recurring income and long-term profitability.
  • Geojit is evolving into a full-stack wealth platform, making it a re-rating candidate if it delivers on PMS scale-up and sustains income diversification.

Business Breakdown: Zydus Lifesciences ~ Bet on R&D and New Launches to Fill the Revenue Gap

By Nimish Maheshwari

  • Zydus Lifesciences Ltd (ZYDUSLIF IN) is a leading global healthcare company specializing in generic drugs, biosimilars, and innovative therapies across multiple therapeutic areas.
  • While the Revlimid slowdown risk looms, Zydus aims to offset this with a strong pipeline of new product launches and R&D innovations.
  • Its secondary sales have consistently outpaced market growth, driven by strong performances in chronic and specialty products.

Amara Raja Energy & Mobility: Revenue Growth Offset by Margin Pressures, Strategic Capex Continues..

By Sudarshan Bhandari

  • ARE&M reported Q4 FY25 with modest revenue growth but saw slight declines in EBITDAand PAT margins due to cost pressures and provisions.
  • Elevated material and power costs significantly impacted profitability despite underlying business growth, presenting a challenge for margin recovery efforts.
  • Focus shifts to monitoring the effectiveness of recent price hikes, cost-saving initiatives, and the ramp-up of new, more efficient manufacturing facilities in restoring targeted margins.

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Daily Brief India: Vishal Mega Mart, HDB Financial Services Ltd, Hindustan Zinc, LIC Housing Finance, Biocon Biologics India and more

By | Daily Briefs, India

In today’s briefing:

  • Vishal Mega Mart (VMM IN) Placement: PE Selling Will Lead to Large Passive Buying
  • HDB Financial IPO: Offer Details & Index Entry Timing
  • HINDZINC – ₹12,000 Cr Smelter Expansion Approved Amid Long-Term Growth Push
  • LICHF: FY25 Performance Ended in Line With the Expectation
  • Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia


Vishal Mega Mart (VMM IN) Placement: PE Selling Will Lead to Large Passive Buying

By Brian Freitas

  • Reports indicate that Kedaara Capital Fund is looking to sell 22% of Vishal Mega Mart at a floor price of INR 110/share, a 11.9% discount to the last close.
  • The placement will lead to a huge increase in the free float for the stock and Vishal Mega Mart could be added to a global index in August.
  • Vishal Mega Mart is also an inclusion to another global index at the close on Friday and we could see more buying in the stock following the increase in float.

HDB Financial IPO: Offer Details & Index Entry Timing

By Brian Freitas

  • HDB Financial Services Ltd (0117739D IN) is looking to list on the exchanges by selling up to INR125bn (US$1.46bn) of stock at a valuation of around INR 620bn (US$7.2bn).
  • The stock will not get Fast Entry to either of the global indices. The earliest inclusion in a global index should take place in December.
  • HDB Financial Services Ltd‘s peers have traded well over the last 6 months and that could spill over into demand for the stock. Grey market premium is pretty high.

HINDZINC – ₹12,000 Cr Smelter Expansion Approved Amid Long-Term Growth Push

By Rahul Jain

  • HZL has approved a ₹12,000 crore investment to set up a 250 KTPA integrated zinc smelter at Debari as part of its 2x capacity expansion plan.
  • While smelting investments are not inherently value-accretive due to low TCs, they are necessary to process captive ore and minimize logistics costs.
  • The overall growth outlook remains strong, but the pending mine lease expiries by 2030 pose a material long-term risk.

LICHF: FY25 Performance Ended in Line With the Expectation

By Ankit Agrawal, CFA

  • As projected by us, LIC Housing Finance (“LICHF”) ended FY25 with a strong PAT of INR 5400cr+ (up 14%+ YoY), led by normalized credit cost of around 0.1%.
  • Q4FY25 PAT at INR 1374cr grew strong at 25%+ YoY. FY25 AUM grew 7.1% despite certain technical challenges. Total disbursements in FY25 grew at 9% YoY. 
  • NIM ended FY25 at 2.73%, in line with the expectation. Led by technical write-offs and sale of certain NPAs to ARCs, Stage 3 assets improved to 2.47% vs 3.31% YoY.

Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

By Trung Nguyen

  • In today’s Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Biocon Biologics, Tata Motors, ReNew Energy
  • US treasury yields rose for a second day, with the curve steepening despite good overall demand for an auction of 20Y notes. The yield on the 2Y UST rose 2 bps to 3.97%, while that on the 10Y UST was up 5 bps at 4.45%.
  • Equities advanced on news that Iran was asking Gulf states to mediate a ceasefire with Israel. The S&P 500 increased 0.9% to 6,033, while the Nasdaq climbed 1.5% to 19,701.

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Daily Brief India: Biocon Ltd, Tata Motors and more

By | Daily Briefs, India

In today’s briefing:

  • Biocon Ltd QIP – Well Flagged US$522m QIP; Largely Towards Clearing Debt
  • Short Tata Motors – JLR Investor Day – All About Tariffs, China & BEV. Guidance Slashed for FY26.


Biocon Ltd QIP – Well Flagged US$522m QIP; Largely Towards Clearing Debt

By Akshat Shah

  • Biocon Ltd (BIOS IN) Biocon Ltd is looking to raise up to US$522m in its qualified institutional placement (QIP).
  • The deal is well flagged, having gone through rounds of board/shareholder approvals. The QIP has also been covered by domestic media reports.
  • In this note, we run the deal through our ECM framework and comment on deal dynamics.

Short Tata Motors – JLR Investor Day – All About Tariffs, China & BEV. Guidance Slashed for FY26.

By Sreemant Dudhoria,CFA

  • Tata Motors (TTMT IN)subsidiary Jaguar Land Rover’s volumes, revenue, EBIT margins and FCF all plateaued in FY25.
  • US Tariffs & China Slowdown Undermine FY26 Outlook: The tariffs on UK car imports and collapsing China JV performance together threaten JLR’s two most profitable regions.
  • Company expects JLR EBIT margin to crash to the 5–7% range (vs 8.5% in FY25) and FCF to fall to zero vs GBP 1.5 billion in FY25.

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Daily Brief India: Inventurus Knowledge Solutions and more

By | Daily Briefs, India

In today’s briefing:

  • Inventurus IPO Lockup: US$2.4bn Lockup Release; Pre-IPO Investors May Monetize


Inventurus IPO Lockup: US$2.4bn Lockup Release; Pre-IPO Investors May Monetize

By Nicholas Tan

  • Inventurus Knowledge Solutions (IKSINCD IN) raised around US$295m in its India IPO in Dec 2024. The lockup on its pre-IPO investors is set to expire soon.
  • It is a technology-enabled healthcare solutions provider, assisting physician enterprises in US, Canada and Australia, with a core focus in the US.
  • In this note, we will talk about the lockup dynamics and possible placement.

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Daily Brief India: Sun Pharmaceutical Industries, Canara Bank and more

By | Daily Briefs, India

In today’s briefing:

  • Sun Pharmaceutical (SUNP IN): Timely Succession Plan to Augur Well for Next-Level of Growth
  • Relative Value Roundup: Performance Recap of Financial Pair Trades


Sun Pharmaceutical (SUNP IN): Timely Succession Plan to Augur Well for Next-Level of Growth

By Tina Banerjee

  • Sun Pharmaceutical Industries (SUNP IN) is appointing Kirti Ganorkar as the Managing Director to succeed Dilip Shanghvi, effective September 1, 2025, with the entire business reporting to him.
  • In another development, Richard Ascroft will be joining as CEO – North America, succeeding Abhay Gandhi. Aalok Shanghvi has been additionally entrusted with the responsibility for the North America business.
  • Succession plan and management rejig come at a time when SPIL is at an inflection point, with its India business being on a strong foothold and specialty business gaining traction.

Relative Value Roundup: Performance Recap of Financial Pair Trades

By Gaudenz Schneider

  • Context: This Insight follows up on previously highlighted relative value opportunities, using a statistical methodology based on mean-reversion to identify opportunities in paired securities.
  • Highlight: Two pair trade opportunities in the Indian financial sector persist, with price ratios exceeding two standard deviations from their historical means.
  • Why read: Statistical analysis offers a unique perspective on relative value. Gain insights into actionable statistical pair trade opportunities and monitor performance of previously highlighted pairs.

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Daily Brief India: Vishal Mega Mart, Oswal Pumps, RHI Magnesita India and more

By | Daily Briefs, India

In today’s briefing:

  • Vishal Mega Mart IPO Lockup Expiry – US$4bn Lockup Release with PE Sitting on 10x Gains
  • Oswal Pumps: Snapshot of Growth, Strategy, and Risks (NSE: OSWALPUMPS)
  • RHIM (NSE: RHIM) – Margins Easing, Capex Driving Growth, Integration Overhang Fading


Vishal Mega Mart IPO Lockup Expiry – US$4bn Lockup Release with PE Sitting on 10x Gains

By Sumeet Singh

  • Vishal Mega Mart raised around US$950m in its India IPO. Its IPO linked lockup will expire soon.
  • Vishal Mega Mart Limited (VMM), is a one-stop retail destination. As per the company it targets middle and lower-middle income consumers across India.
  • In this note, we will talk about the lock-up dynamics and updates since our last note.

Oswal Pumps: Snapshot of Growth, Strategy, and Risks (NSE: OSWALPUMPS)

By Rahul Jain

  • Past Growth: Oswal scaled rapidly under PM-KUSUM, becoming India’s largest solar pump supplier with strong revenue and order book growth.
  • Plans: It aims to expand capacity, enter industrial pumps and motors, and grow exports and private-sector sales.
  • Risks: Heavy reliance on a tapering subsidy scheme, limited post-KUSUM demand, and exposure to policy, ESG, and working capital challenges.

RHIM (NSE: RHIM) – Margins Easing, Capex Driving Growth, Integration Overhang Fading

By Rahul Jain

  • Margin pressures are likely to ease from Q2FY26 as raw material costs normalize and recent price hikes take effect.
  • The company is executing a Rs150 Cr capex plan focused on automating DOCL plants and localizing high-margin products.
  • Integration challenges, cost inflation, and inventory issues that weighed on FY24–25 performance appear largely behind now.

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