india Archives | Page 20 of 153 | Smartkarma

• The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is set to announce a monetary policy decision on Friday, 6 June 2025.
• Market Expectations: The consensus anticipates a 25-basis-point rate cut, lowering the rate from currently 6.00% to 5.75%. Historically, one in four RBI rate decisions is a surprise to the market.
• This Insight investigates past market behavior during comparable RBI policy announcements, unearthing a surprising statistic about how the Nifty 50 might react to June’s decision, regardless of the outcome.

• Aegis Vopak Terminals Ltd (1902844D IN) raised about US$328m in its upcoming India IPO.
• It is the largest Indian third-party owner and operator (in terms of storage capacity) of tank storage terminals for liquified petroleum gas (LPG) and liquid products.
• In our previous notes, we talked about the company’s historical performance, undertook a peer comparison and shared our thoughts on valuation. In this note, we talk about the trading dynamics.

• Schloss Bangalore Ltd (SCHBL IN) raised about US$400m in its India IPO. 
• It is a luxury hospitality company which owns, operates, manages and develops luxury hotels and resorts under ‘The Leela’ brand, through direct ownership and hotel management agreements with third-party owners.
• We have covered various aspects of the deal in our previous note. In this note, we will talk about the demand and trading dynamics.

• The Canara Bank (CBK IN) vs. LIC Housing Finance (LICHF IN) Price-Ratio has deviated more than two standard deviations from its one-year average, presenting a potential relative value opportunity.
• The relative value opportunity can be implemented through stocks, derivatives, or as relative over-/underweights in a long only context.
• This Insight provides a target return and discusses trade setup and risk management strategies.

• Nifty had limited movement this week with the rally off the April low stalling out.
• Elevated volatility metrics contrast with an otherwise quiet tape over the past week. We recommend taking some chips off the table, taking advantage of vol levels. 
• Nifty has given up about 1/2 its outperformance vs the SP500 over the past couple of weeks. 

• US treasuries climbed yesterday, on the back of a strong auction of 7Y notes and amid a soft GDP data release.
• The yield on the 2Y UST fell 5 bps to 3.94%, while that on the 10Y UST declined 6 bps to 4.42%.
• Equities climbed on the back of solid results from Nvidia Corp, albeit the extent of gains was pared later in the day on slowing economic data and legal uncertainties over tariffs.

• To reduce index concentration and the risk of market volatility and market manipulation, SEBI has recommended changes to the eligibility criteria for derivatives on non-benchmark indices.
• The recommended changes will result in two inclusions to the NSE Nifty Bank Index (NSEBANK INDEX) along with large capping changes.
• The inclusions and capping changes will result in an estimated one-way turnover of 17.05% and in a round-trip trade of INR 76.2bn (US$893m) in September.

• Sarda’s near-term growth will be driven by the full-year contribution from SKS Power, boosting earnings visibility.
• The business mix is shifting structurally from steel to power, which now contributes over 60% of EBIT. Low leverage at <1x EV/EBITDA is a positive.
• The recent weakness in spot power prices is seen as temporary; at 15x FY27 EV/EBITDA, the stock offers strong upside.

• HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN) is navigating a mix of positive growth indicators and emerging regulatory challenges but average 12-month target is ₹2,194, with estimates ranging from ₹1,627 to ₹2,793.
• Consensus rating: predominantly “Buy” from major brokerages, including ICICI Securities and Motilal Oswal, citing strong loan growth and stable asset quality.
• The stock’s strong fundamentals and growth outlook remain intact, but momentum has stalled in recent weeks following the sharp rally we correctly anticipated from January 14, 2025.

• Globus Spirits continues its strategic pivot towards high-margin consumer business, with P&A revenue up 186% in FY25 and Regular & Others up 17%.
• The manufacturing segment’s margins are stabilising due to favourable government ethanol policies and raw material availability, enhancing overall profitability.
• This shift, coupled with significant investments in the key Uttar Pradesh market and near completion of major capex, positions the company for continued profitable growth, reinforcing a positive view.

• In Q4FY25, deposits grew strong at 15.8% YoY. QoQ, average deposits grew by 3.1%. Time deposits led the growth while growth in CASA deposits was relatively muted.
• In line with its stated strategy, HDFCB’s loan book has been growing slower than that of deposits to bring down the credit-deposit ratio. Average AUM grew 7.3% YoY in Q4FY25.
• Credit-Deposit ratio is now at 96% vs 110% at merger. Going forward, the adjustment in credit-deposit ratio won’t be as steep, thus FY26 is expected to be a normalization year.

• SEBI’s order against IndusInd Bank’s ex-CEO and others reveals a 15-month deliberate delay in disclosing critical accounting discrepancies.
• This exposes severe corporate governance failures, eroding investor trust due to alleged insider trading.
• SEBI fined the company with the INR 20Crs. to IndusInd officials as well as also barred the senior officials from dealing in security market.

• Synergy Green reported robust FY25 performance with 11% revenue growth and 224bps EBITDA margin expansion, driven by direct exports and gearboxes.  
• Strong execution and margin improvement underscore operational efficiency, while a significant INR 187 crore capex addresses capacity constraints, crucial for future growth.
• Performance validates the business model, but the delayed capex execution means FY26 growth will be heavily back-ended, requiring close monitoring of ramp-up.

• Aster DM Healthcare Ltd (ASTERDM IN) reported 4% revenue decline in Kerala due to festivities, lower international patient, and leadership transition. Ramadan impact caused 2.5–3.0% of the revenue hit.
• Going ahead, the company is eyeing for atleast mid-teens growth from Kerala cluster, with 7–8% will be with volumes and balance 7–8% will come from the ARPOB.  
• Aster’s base business is on a stable growth path. Margin levers are intact. With QCIL merger synergies, the company aims for EBITDA margin of 23–24% in 3–4 years.

• Bosch Ltd (BOS IN) ‘s multiple technology innovations in mobility, consumer power goods and energy & building technology will drive future growth.
• FY25 PBT grew by 17% YoY driven by increased sales in the off-highway segment and mobility aftermarket business.
• Deserves a premium valuation for its commitment to innovation, digitalization, and sustainability. Trades at median historical valuation of 40x P/E on FY27e EPS.

• The ICICI Lombard (ICICIGI IN) vs. SBI Life (SBILIFE IN) Price-Ratio has deviated more than two standard deviations from its one-year average, presenting a potential relative value opportunity.
• The relative value opportunity can be implemented through stocks, derivatives, or as relative over-/underweights in a long only context.
• This Insight discusses trade setup, statistical properties, factor exposure, and risk management strategies.

• Field latex cross INR 200 (US$2.34) mark, sheet still short of it  
• Over 40% of smallholders complete rainguarding as rains set in  
• Compound rubber import worries farmers, traders  

• Deepak Fertilisers & Petro (DFPC IN) reported robust Q4 and full-year FY25 results, crossing INR 10,000 crores in revenue and doubling PAT year-on-year for FY25.
• The strong financial outcomes validate the company’s strategy of aligning with India’s growth story and transitioning from commodities to higher-margin specialty products.
• Improved financial health, reduced net debt, and strategic capex nearing completion position DFPCL for future growth and potentially higher profitability despite near-term segment-specific pressures.

• We highlight small cap companies that experienced significant insider buying during May 2025, as reported on the stock exchanges.
• As May 2025 is a earnings season month ,very few companies reported insider transactions. However, we should expect increased buy transactions once the earnings season concludes.
• Real Estate, Media, Power, Industrials and Financial services are top sectors which saw insider buying in the small cap universe.

• Piccadily Agro has rapidly scaled Indri and Camikara into global alcobev brands, with presence in 28 countries and 24 duty-free outlets, supported by INR 500 crore capex expansion.
• This shift marks a decisive pivot from commodity sugar to premium brand-led revenue, improving margins and reducing seasonality and policy risk in its core business model.
• PAIL is an emerging alcobev player with global aspirations and a premium product pipeline that could rerate valuations meaningfully.

• Belrise Industries (9156339Z IN) raised about US$252m in its India IPO.
• Belrise Industries is an automotive component manufacturing company based in India offering a diverse range of safety critical systems and other engineering solutions for two-wheelers, three-wheelers, four-wheelers, commercial and agri-vehicles.
• We have covered various aspects of the deal in our previous note. In this note, we will talk about the demand and trading dynamics.

• Greaves Electric Mobility Ltd (GEML) is looking to raise about US$120m in its upcoming India IPO.
• GEML is a manufacturer of electric vehicles in India, specializing in E-2Ws and 3Ws to a lesser extent. It’s focusing on shifting towards higher ASP High Speed E-2Ws.
• Historically, demand has been sensitive to whether government subsidies are available and had impacted margins before.

• May is a result season, and hence, very few companies that are out of their silent period are eligible to permit insider trading activity
• Sectors with notable activity include real estate, financials, media and renewable energy.
• Most of these stocks are close to same price levels where the insider purchases happened.

• Zen Technologies (ZEN IN) reported record-high quarterly and annual financial performance in Q4 & FY25, surpassing internal guidance for the year. Strategic acquisitions in naval simulation, drone components& robotics completed.
• The strong financials and acquisitions significantly diversify capabilities and market reach, positioning Zen to capitalise on increasing defence spending and evolving warfare needs.
• Performance exceeds expectations, reinforcing confidence in Zen’s indigenous technology leadership and growth trajectory, despite potential short-term order inflow volatility.

• InterGlobe Aviation Ltd (INDIGO IN) reported record quarterly PAT and crossed $10 billion in annual revenue for the first time and recommended a dividend after five years.
• Capacity significantly expanded in FY25 and plans continue, adding aircraft, routes, and widebodies for international growth. On consolidated basis, management guides early double digit growth in FY26.
• Geopolitical events like India-Pak war caused booking dips and flight delays. 

• Bajaj Consumer Care Limited (BJCOR IN) operates in the position in light hair oil through its flagship brand Almond Drops with a 65% market share in this category.
• In FY25, revenue grew 3.2% YoY to INR 2.4 bn, but EBITDA fell 9.6% and PAT declined 15.6% due to copara(RM) price surge and high employee cost.
• Management expects ADHO to rebound with rural demand recovery, while Coconut Oil and skin-care extensions continue to expand the non-ADHO portfolio base aiming 40% share from current 20% in revenue.

• Salzer reported strong top-line growth in Q4 and FY25, secured significant smart meter and smart lighting orders, but faced margin pressure and wrote off investments in unviable EV ventures.
• Strong revenue growth was driven by core businesses, but higher smart meter expenses impacted profitability, while new orders and EV investment signal future strategic direction.
• Management is actively navigating challenges, focusing on high-growth areas like smart meters and EV charging, reinforcing a positive medium-term growth outlook despite near-term margin volatility.

• Kauntam Papers (KAUN IN) reported stable Q4 FY25 volumes but lower revenue/profit YoY amidst industry headwinds, while progressing on a significant capacity expansion by 50%.
• The company demonstrated margin resilience despite challenging raw material(wood) and import dynamics with expectation of price surge by 6-7% in next 6 months.
• Ongoing capex project of INR 735 crores is on track for completion by Mar-26 where purchase orders worth INR 540 crores already issued, remaining in final stages. 

• InterGlobe Aviation Ltd (INDIGO IN)‘s co-founder, Rakesh Gangwal, aims to raise around US$803m via selling around a 3.3% stake in Indigo.  
• He had earlier stated his intention to pare down his stake after a long drawn, and very public battle, with his co-founder Rahul Bhatia. He has sold many times before.
• In this note, we run the deal through our ECM framework and comment on deal dynamics.

• Schloss Bangalore Ltd (SCHBL IN) is looking to raise about US$409m in its India IPO. The deal has been downsized from an earlier size of around US$600m.
• It is a luxury hospitality company which owns, operates, manages and develops luxury hotels and resorts under ‘The Leela’ brand, through direct ownership and hotel management agreements with third-party owners.
• In this note, we will talk about the IPO valuations.

• As reported by Brian Freitas , one of the NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX) ‘s component (Zomato: Eternal (ETERNAL IN) ) will be subject to big passive selling beginning on Tuesday.
• Let’s have a look at the NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX) to evaluate the tactical outlook according to our model.
• Since our last BUY recommendation in a previous insight in early May, the index has made some progress uptrending, let’s see if the rally can continue…

• Linde India plans to double gas capacity to 20,000 TPD by FY27 with ₹32 bn capex, including new ASUs for Tata Steel.
•  FY25 PAT rose 5% despite a 10% revenue dip, driven by margin gains and cost efficiency.
• Trades at over 80× P/E FY27, appears justified by annuity-like cash flows from critical long-term contracts with top steelmakers.

• Jubilant Ingrevia has launched its “Pinnacle 3.4.5” strategy targeting 3x revenue and 4x EBITDA growth by FY30, signaling a focused shift toward higher-margin segments.
• The company’s business mix is rapidly evolving, with Specialty Chemicals and Nutrition now contributing 62% of revenue, improving margin visibility and reducing cyclicality.
• With increasing downstream integration, global CDMO expansion, and a robust R&D pipeline, Jubilant Ingrevia is transitioning into a structurally higher-margin, innovation-driven player.

Founded in 1973, Reliance Industries (RIL) is one of the largest conglomerates in Asia and India’s largest private-sector corporation. It has diverse businesses including energy, petrochemicals, natural gas, retail, telecommunications, mass media and textiles. RIL is India’s largest exporter, accounting for 8% of total merchandise exports and 5% of the government’s revenue from customs and excise duty. It is listed on the Indian Stock Exchange, with a market cap of c. USD 200 bn. The company is owned (49.5%) and controlled by Mukesh Ambani.

• JSW Steel’s Q4/24-25 results were poor, with lower revenues and earnings due to a weak pricing environment and despite a record production year from capacity expansion.
• The balance sheet deteriorated significantly, although liquidity improved materially.
• We expect FY 2025-26 to be better, with a significant increase in earnings due to an improved pricing environment as well as the new safeguard duty in India.

• Following shareholder approval of the proposal to reduce the Foreign Ownership Limit from 100% to 49.5%, NSDL has updated the FOL. This starts the process of passive selling in Zomato.
• Passives will sell US$350m at the close on Tuesday. There is a low probability of more selling later in the week. There will be bigger selling in August.
• The size of the selling in August and beyond will depend on what foreign investors do in the stock till the end of June. Watch the red flag/ breach list.

• Aegis Vopak Terminals is raising Rs2,800 crore via a fresh issue to repay debt and fund expansion, marking its transition into a listed infrastructure platform.
• LPG capacity is set to triple by FY26, with new industrial terminals planned under a Rs4,500 crore capex; revenue and EBITDA are projected to grow 20–25% CAGR through FY27.
• Key risks include high dependence on group entities for revenue, delayed utilization of new capacity, and exposure to regulatory or energy demand shifts affecting LPG and chemical flows.

• Ashok Leyland (AL IN) posted 38% YoY PAT growth in Q4, driven by cost efficiency, premium product mix, and strong EBITDA margin improvement.
• HLF IPO and Switch India’s PAT target for FY26 positions for significant value unlocking and improved subsidiary contribution.
• CV demand, export momentum, and alt-fuel investments support a strong FY26 outlook, with valuations supported by improving profitability and resilient balance sheet. 4o

• Aegis Vopak Terminals Ltd (1902844D IN)  is looking to raise about US$328m in its upcoming India IPO.
• It is the largest Indian third-party owner and operator (in terms of storage capacity) of tank storage terminals for liquified petroleum gas (LPG) and liquid products.
• In this note, we look at the firm’s recent financial performance updates, as well as its potential valuation.

• NALCO has guided for alumina realizations around $400/t in FY26, with earnings further impacted by delays in ramp-up of its 1 MTPA alumina expansion project.
• Q4 FY25 results were strong, but earnings outlook has weakened significantly with the steep drop in alumina prices.
• Valuations appear inexpensive on FY27 earnings at 5x EV/EBITDA, however peristent delays in capacity rampup is concerning. 

• Bajaj Auto will take majority control of KTM AG by buying out its Austrian partner in Pierer Bajaj AG and injecting €800 million to close KTM’s court-approved restructuring.
• The deal rescues a flagship European brand from insolvency, safeguards KTM’s supply chain, and vaults Bajaj into the global premium-sport segment as an OEM rather than a contract partner.
• Bajaj’s pivot from passive investor to turnaround owner adds earnings volatility near-term, but long-term it secures technology, brand equity, and a bigger share of high-margin 400-1,000 cc bikes.

• JSW Steel has guided for 10% volume growth in FY26, with operating leverage and cost efficiencies poised to drive significant margin expansion.
• The Supreme Court ruling on BPSL has created new challenges, the issue is not expected to derail JSW’s growth trajectory or cash flows and production.
• Earnings could surge over 85% in FY26, supported by higher steel prices, lower input costs, and ramp-up of new capacities like JVML and Dolvi.

• NIFTY 50 represents the 50 largest stocks listed in the National Stock Exchange (NSE) of India and the NIFTY Next 50 index tracks the next 50 largest names.
• In this insight, we take a look at the names leading the race to become ADDs/DELs for these indices in the September 2025 index rebal event.
• We see two changes for NIFTY 50 and five changes for NIFTY 100.

• Schloss Bangalore’s Rs3,500 crore IPO includes a Rs2,500 crore fresh issue largely earmarked for debt repayment, with limited allocation toward growth investments.
• The company operates 13 ultra-luxury hotels under The Leela brand, delivering premium ARR and F&B-led revenue, but with relatively modest scale versus larger peers.
• While expansion plans are underway with 678 new keys by FY28, the IPO is priced at a rich ~12x EV/Sales—significantly above Oberoi’s ~8x, despite being half its size.

• DBOL reported a revenue increase in FY25, driven by sugar and country liquor segments, but faced profit headwinds from lower ethanol volumes and sugar recovery issues.
• Despite a challenging sugar season with reduced recovery rates and ethanol sector pressures, DBOL is strategically diversifying into grain-based ethanol and aggressively expanding its country liquor market share.
• The focus on varietal replacement in cane, commissioning of a grain distillery, and aiming for country liquor market share provide avenues for future margin improvement and stability, despite near-term risks.

• Slipping butadiene costs impact prices of SBR, BR and NBR  
• Near steady domestic production fails to match rise in consumption  
• EPDM, Silicone Rubber prices near stable since February