india Archives | Page 24 of 152 | Smartkarma

In today’s briefing:

Zomato/Eternal: Lower Foreign Ownership Limits & The BIG Passive Selling
Swiggy (SWIGGY IN): Post-IPO Global Index Inclusion & Final Lockup Expires In May 2025
Adani Ports: Riding the Global Ports Wave with Scale, Margin, and Visibility

Zomato/Eternal: Lower Foreign Ownership Limits & The BIG Passive Selling

By Brian Freitas

Zomato (ZOMATO IN), now Eternal, listed in July 2021 with a Foreign Ownership Limit (FOL) of 100%. Since listing, foreign ownership has dropped from over 70% to just under 45%.
Eternal is looking to cap foreign ownership at 49.5% to continue qualifying as an Indian-Owned-and-Controlled Company. That will give the company greater operational flexibility, especially for inventory ownership.
The FOL decrease will result in selling from passive global index trackers. With the stock 23.5% off its highs and a steady increase in futures open interest, covering could ensue.

Swiggy (SWIGGY IN): Post-IPO Global Index Inclusion & Final Lockup Expires In May 2025

By Dimitris Ioannidis

The anchor lock-up expired on 13 Feb 2025 and the pre-IPO shareholder lock-up expires on 13 May 2025. The free float is forecasted to increase from ~13% to ~40%.
Swiggy (SWIGGY IN) is expected to be added to global all-world at the June 2025 review following its IPO in November 2024 and the lock-up expiries.
Swiggy (SWIGGY IN) is expected to be added to global standard in May 2025 if top-down approach is used for free float. Otherwise, its addition will take place in August.

Adani Ports: Riding the Global Ports Wave with Scale, Margin, and Visibility

NQXT brings structural leverage: 35 MMT of throughput, 65% EBITDA margin, and zero-debt funding makes this a clean, long-cycle infrastructure asset. Pro forma FY27E EV/EBITDA compresses to 12.6x; P/E 19x.
FY25 guidance upgraded: Revenue now pegged at Rs29,000–31,000 Cr (vs Rs26,000–27,000 Cr earlier), EBITDA at Rs18,800–18,900 Cr, and cargo volume at 460–480 MMT — upper band implies a strong Q4.
Trades at 12.6x FY27E EV/EBITDA, APSEZ offers growth, operating leverage, and global strategic footprint and ramping port utilization. Likely disruptions in trade flows post Trump tariffs is a risk.

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Apr 19

Daily Brief India: Bharti Airtel, Time Technoplast, NIFTY Index, Vinati Organics and more

In today’s briefing:

Still Bearish/Cautious; Stick With Defensives; Emerging Market Opportunities
The Beat Ideas- Time Technoplast: Driving Growth Through Innovation & Value-Added Products
NIFTY 50 Tactical Outlook (Post-Easter Targets)
The Beat Ideas: Vinati Organics- A Niche Giant in Specialty Chemicals

Still Bearish/Cautious; Stick With Defensives; Emerging Market Opportunities

By Joe Jasper

Since late-February (2/25/25 Compass and 2/27/25 Int’l Compass) we had been expecting an 8-10% pullback to provide a buying opportunity.
However, after getting the 10%+ pullback, we discussed in 4/1/25 and 4/3/25 reports how we no longer saw it as a buying opportunity, and we downgraded our outlook to bearish/cautious
While it is possible that the lows are in, we now are looking for the ACWI-US rally to fizzle, either here at $113.50-$115 or the 200-day MA (~$118).

The Beat Ideas- Time Technoplast: Driving Growth Through Innovation & Value-Added Products

Time Technoplast (TIME IN) holds a dominant position in the industrial packaging sector, with leadership in composite cylinders, IBCs, plastic drums, benefiting from a strong global presence& high entry barriers.
TTL is increasingly focusing on higher-margin segments like CNG cylinders, hydrogen storage, and composite products. These initiatives offer significant scalability and margin expansion, setting up strong long-term revenue growth.
With strategic R&D investments, TTL is entering emerging sectors like e-mobility (e-rickshaw batteries) and hydrogen fuel cylinders, tapping into new high-growth markets that could diversify revenue and fuel sustainable growth.

NIFTY 50 Tactical Outlook (Post-Easter Targets)

By Nico Rosti

The strong rebound from the crash low signals resilience in the NIFTY Index, and notably, the index appears to be staging a short-term breakout from its recent downtrend.
Is this the start of a rally? It’s hard to say, given the current economic uncertainty—however, our model suggests the index could extend its gains for another week.
The rally should be limited, a good profit target according to our model is between 24039 and 24496.

The Beat Ideas: Vinati Organics- A Niche Giant in Specialty Chemicals

Vinati Organics (VO IN) dominates the global market with a 65% share in ATBS and IBB, offering strong profitability driven by high-demand sectors like water treatment and pharmaceuticals.
With a INR570 crore capex investment, Vinati is expanding its ATBS capacity by 50%, diversifying into high-growth segments such as MEHQ, Guaiacol, and Antioxidants, positioning itself for long-term revenue growth.
Vinati is strategically increasing its domestic revenue share (45% of FY24 sales), while strengthening its export presence, capitalizing on India’s “Make in India” initiative and reducing currency volatility risks.

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Apr 18

Daily Brief India: Park Medi World and more

In today’s briefing:

Park Medi World Pre-IPO: Some Points Worth Attention

Park Medi World Pre-IPO: Some Points Worth Attention

By Tina Banerjee

Park Medi World is the second largest private hospital chain in North India with a capacity of 3,000 beds, and the largest private hospital chain in Haryana.
The company aims to raise INR9.6B through issuing fresh shares. Founder and Chairman, Dr. Ajit Gupta is the selling shareholder offering shares worth of INR3B for sale.
IPO proceeds will be utilized for debt repayment, funding capex for development of new hospital, expansion of existing hospital, and purchase of medical equipment.

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Apr 17

Daily Brief India: Gensol Engineering, SAMHI Hotels , Sandur Manganese & Iron Ore and more

In today’s briefing:

Gensol Engineering Forensic Analysis: Insights from SEBI’s Investigation
The Beat Ideas: Samhi Hotels, A Strategic Play on India’s Premium Hotels
SMIORE: Transitioning from Merchant Miner to Integrated Steel & Minerals Powerhouse

Gensol Engineering Forensic Analysis: Insights from SEBI’s Investigation

By Nimish Maheshwari

SEBI has launched a forensic investigation into Gensol Engineering Ltd. (GEL), highlighting grave concerns around corporate governance, fund misuse, and misleading disclosures
What began as a story of meteoric financial growth has now unfolded into a cautionary tale of alleged fund diversion, shady preferential allotments, and sharp promoter decline.
This research note delves into the key issues identified by SEBI, the financial patterns that triggered scrutiny, and the implications for stakeholders.

The Beat Ideas: Samhi Hotels, A Strategic Play on India’s Premium Hotels

SAMHI Hotels (SAMHI IN) witnessing a 9-10% top-line growth attributed to same-store Average Room Rate (ARR) growth and robust occupancy trend across all the segments.
Company is set to generate a top line of INR 3.2-3.5bn pa post stabilization in 2 years with an increase of 532 keys across three hotels.
Company is expecting 35% revenue growth in next 3-4 years by repositioning the ACIC portfolio under the Marriott Tribute & Courtyard brands and opening new hotels like W& Westin Tribute.

SMIORE: Transitioning from Merchant Miner to Integrated Steel & Minerals Powerhouse

Scale-Up in Mining: Iron ore capacity ramped up to 3.86 MTPA with visibility to reach 4.36 MTPA, positioning mining as a high-margin cash engine.
Forward Integration via Arjas Acquisition: Strategic acquisition of Arjas Steel marks a shift from merchant mining to integrated steel production, with embedded OEM relationships and SBQ focus.
Valuation Reset in Progress: Despite structural upgrades, the stock trades at ~8x EV/EBITDA, offering a rerating opportunity as steel margins expand and loss-making verticals normalise.

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Apr 16

Daily Brief India: LG Electronics India, HDFC Bank, Moil Ltd and more

In today’s briefing:

LG Electronics India IPO: The Bear Case
Time to Sell HDFC Bank? Stock Nears Record High and Slightly Overbought
MOIL Ltd: Plans to Double Output Well Supported

LG Electronics India IPO: The Bear Case

By Arun George

LG Electronics India (123D IN)/LGEIL, a subsidiary of LG Electronics (066570 KS), aims to raise up to US$1.5 billion through a secondary offering (15% of outstanding shares).
In LG Electronics India IPO: The Bull Case, we highlighted the key elements of the bull case. In this note, we outline the bear case.
The bear case rests on bottom-quartile revenue growth, revenue decline in the largest product category, dividends to the parent far exceeding FCF and significant share overhang.

Time to Sell HDFC Bank? Stock Nears Record High and Slightly Overbought

By Nico Rosti

HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN) is one of those few stocks that were nearly unaffected by the recent market turmoil (-5.7% pullback, peak to bottom and now at new highs).
Our insight in January 14th 2025 signaled a strong buy opportunity, the stock rallied +13% from there.
Now the stock has reached its previous all time highs, and may become overbought. Long-term outlook remains positive, but a short-term pullback is possible in the next 2 weeks.

MOIL Ltd: Plans to Double Output Well Supported

MOIL is India’s largest manganese ore producer, contributing over 50% of the country’s production. Its dominant position provides a competitive advantage in meeting domestic demand.
Planned a capex of Rs24 billion until FY30. This investment will support brownfield expansions, greenfield projects, and modernization efforts, including shaft-sinking projects at Balaghat and Gumgaon mines.
Valuations: Trades at a marginal premium to historic valuations. Debt-free balance sheet, 25yr+ mine life gives confidence over LT execution of expansion plans.

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Apr 15

Daily Brief India: Grasim Industries, NIFTY Index, Steel Authority of India, Tata Consultancy Svcs and more

In today’s briefing:

Birla Opus | Short Term Gain, Long Term Pain
Nifty Index Options Weekly (Apr 07 – 11): Volatility Spikes, Skew Steepens, Hedges Reassessed
Steel Authority of India: Weak on Expansion
#3 Leadership Bytes(11-Apr-25)

Birla Opus | Short Term Gain, Long Term Pain

By Pranav Bhavsar

We interact with our dealer network representing Asian Paints (APNT IN) and Birla Opus Grasim Industries (GRASIM IN) dealers with an objective to understand the current operating environment.
Aggression in a slow-moving market will result in short-term market share gains for players like Birla Opus.
While Asian Paints (APNT IN) may appear to lose market share, we believe this would be transient in nature.

Nifty Index Options Weekly (Apr 07 – 11): Volatility Spikes, Skew Steepens, Hedges Reassessed

By John Ley

Implied vol spiked sharply on Monday, marking one of the largest single-day moves since the pandemic.
We discuss the move in skew and suggest a course of action for previously recommended hedges.
The magnitude of the implied vol move is examined in the context of recent price behavior—and whether it holds.

Steel Authority of India: Weak on Expansion

SAIL has been a consistent under-performer despite having huge iron ore reserves, multi-location steel plants and wide product spectrum and exclusive sales to Indian Railways
Legacy plants, ageing manpower and operational inefficiencies have resulted in slower growth compared to peers and a significant loss in overall market share, high inventories and single digit RoEs
SAIL trades at 0.8x P/B, in line with history, but weak volume visibility and elevated debt warrant a deeper discount—0.6x book better reflects risk-reward, in our view.

#3 Leadership Bytes(11-Apr-25)

Tata Consultancy Svcs (TCS IN) , Aurionpro Solutions (AUPS IN) , Mazagon Dock Shipbuilders (MAZDOCKS IN) have shared major updates across demand outlook, sector focus, expansion plans, and strategic pivots.
Each company is aligning efforts to navigate macro uncertainties, tap digital or sectoral growth, and optimize capital allocation.
From TCS’s cautious outlook and margin levers to Apollo’s digital push and Indigo’s hospitality play, these moves reflect a broad spectrum of strategies among market leaders.

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Apr 14

Daily Brief India: NIFTY Index and more

In today’s briefing:

NSE NIFTY50/ Vol Update / Risk Premia Catches up with Global Counterparts in Spite of Truncated Week

NSE NIFTY50/ Vol Update / Risk Premia Catches up with Global Counterparts in Spite of Truncated Week

By Sankalp Singh

Risk premia in Nifty50 Options catches up with Global Markets as IVs spike from sub-12% to 24% – levels last seen during 2024 National Elections.
Vol-Regime switches from “Low & Up” state to “High & Up”. Term-structure swings into Backwardation. Front-end risk premiums elevated in spite of truncated upcoming week.
Tactical Implications: (1) Use IV-spike to flatten +ve Vega exposure. (2) Avoid -ve Gamma, Vol harvesting structures. (3) Front-end/ Back-end Calendars recommended as extreme curve inversion expected to normalize.

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Apr 12

Daily Brief India: Paytm, Jindal Steel & Power, Delhivery , Max Healthcare Institute and more

In today’s briefing:

Paytm 2.0: Growth Triggers Loading…
The Beat Ideas: Jindal Steel & Power, A 31000Cr Mega Capex Plan
Event Driven: Delhivery Acquires Ecom Express as Distress Sale
Max Healthcare (MAXHEALTH IN): Multi-Pronged Expansion Strategy Augurs Well for Sustainable Growth

Paytm 2.0: Growth Triggers Loading…

Paytm (PAYTM IN) is pivoting post-regulatory setbacks with board overhaul, license reapplications, and focus on high-margin verticals like lending and merchant services.
Triggers like MDR revival, PPBL embargo removal, and PA license approval could significantly lift monetization, improve take rates, and stabilize investor sentiment.
While competition is stiff, structural improvements and cost controls position Paytm for a profitable rebound, making it a potential re-rating candidate in FY26.

The Beat Ideas: Jindal Steel & Power, A 31000Cr Mega Capex Plan

The company is in the final stages of commissioning its INR 31,000 crore capex plan, accompanied by strong promoter buying in recent months
The new capacity is expected to improve margins through deeper backward integration while also expanding its value-added product mix.
With secured fuel, captive power, and value-added downstream capacity, it is poised to emerge as an infrastructure powerhouse. A steel price recovery would further amplify gains.

Event Driven: Delhivery Acquires Ecom Express as Distress Sale

By Nimish Maheshwari

Delhivery (DELHIVER IN) acquired a 99.4% stake in Ecom Express for ₹1,407 crore, months after Ecom’s failed IPO and rights issue raised similar funds.
The deal combines two logistics leaders, expands Tier-2/3 reach, and promises cost efficiency, route optimization, and stronger pricing discipline in India’s fast-growing B2C e-commerce logistics.
Despite red flags in Ecom and DRHP disputes, Delhivery may have picked up a distressed but strategic asset at a bargain, with upside from network and tech integration.

Max Healthcare (MAXHEALTH IN): Multi-Pronged Expansion Strategy Augurs Well for Sustainable Growth

By Tina Banerjee

Max Healthcare Institute (MAXHEALT IN) completed the acquisition of Jaypee Healthcare in last November, thereby adding 700 beds. Jaypee added INR1,120M revenue with an operating EBITDA of INR230M in Q3FY25.
Max is setting up ~500 bedded hospital at Thane, Maharashtra on an asset-light built-to-suit basis. The proposed construction of hospital premises is expected to be completed by 2028.
Current expansion plan indicates significant capacity ramp-up (20%+) in FY26, and majority of which will come by Q1, thereby generating scope for revenue realization for most part of the year.

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Apr 11

Daily Brief India: InterGlobe Aviation Ltd, Nuvama Wealth Management, Bank of Maharashtra, IndiQube Spaces Ltd and more

In today’s briefing:

Quiddity Leaderboard NIFTY Sep25: US$1bn+ Total One-Way Flows; ADDs Strongly Outperforming DELs
#134 India Insight: EU 0% Auto Tariff; Warburg ₹800cr Bailout; PAG Plans ₹2.2kcr Nuvama Stake Sale
#2 Leadership Bytes(08-Apr-25)
IndiQube Spaces Pre-IPO – Capacity Has Been Expanding, Though Margins Remain Unstable

Quiddity Leaderboard NIFTY Sep25: US$1bn+ Total One-Way Flows; ADDs Strongly Outperforming DELs

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

NIFTY 50 represents the 50 largest stocks listed in the National Stock Exchange (NSE) of India and the NIFTY Next 50 index tracks the next 50 largest names.
In this insight, we take a look at the names leading the race to become ADDs/DELs for these indices in the September 2025 index rebal event.
We see two changes for NIFTY 50 and five changes for NIFTY 100.

#134 India Insight: EU 0% Auto Tariff; Warburg ₹800cr Bailout; PAG Plans ₹2.2kcr Nuvama Stake Sale

The EU is negotiating with India to remove the 100% import duty on fully built cars under FTA.
Warburg Pincus plans to lead a INR600 – 800 crore rights issue to rescue troubled Fusion Micro Finance (FUSION IN).
PAG has hired JP Morgan and Morgan Stanley to sell its INR 2.2k crore controlling stake in Nuvama Wealth Management (NUVAMA IN).

#2 Leadership Bytes(08-Apr-25)

Bank of Maharashtra (BOMH IN) , Samvardhana Motherson International Ltd (MOTHERSO IN) and Cyient Ltd (CYL IN) . have announced major initiatives spanning branch expansion, localization, and semiconductor investments.
Each company is adopting targeted strategies to strengthen funding models, tap into tech-led growth, and diversify revenue streams.
These updates reflect a broad focus on operational efficiency, capital discipline, and long-term growth across sectors like finance, auto, and semiconductors.

IndiQube Spaces Pre-IPO – Capacity Has Been Expanding, Though Margins Remain Unstable

By Rosita Fernandes

IndiQube Spaces Ltd (1628202D IN) (ISL) is planning to raise about US$100m in its upcoming India IPO.
ISL is a managed workplace solutions provider offering technological workplace solutions. As per CBRE Report, ISL is among the leading operators in Bengaluru as of Jun 24.
ISL offers enterprise workplace solutions, from large hubs to small spokes, enhancing employee experience through integrated interiors, amenities, and various value-added services for a seamless, efficient office environment.

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Apr 10

Daily Brief India: LG Electronics India, NIFTY Index, Jain Resource Recycling, Runwal Enterprises Limited and more