This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Equity Capital Markets on Smartkarma.
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1. Zijin Gold IPO: The Investment Case
- Zijin Gold (2579355D HK) is a global leading gold mining company and the overseas gold segment of Zijin Mining Group (601899 CH). It is seeking to raise US$3 billion.
- Zijin Gold hold interests in eight gold mines located in gold-rich regions across South America, Oceania, Central Asia and Africa.
- The investment case is bullish due to a diversified mine portfolio, strong growth, an attractive margin profile, robust cash generation, and modest leverage.
2. [Japan ECM] Toei Animation (4816) Not as Interesting An Offering As It Could Have Been
- In Feb 2024, I wrote Toei Animation (4816 JP) – This Offering Could Be Heavy; the NEXT Offering Is More Interesting.
- Today, the company announced another offering where Fuji Media Holdings (4676 JP) is selling 10.575mm shares in an overseas offering priced likely tomorrow.
- It is not as interesting as I had expected. But it means the NEXT offering could be more interesting. But there is index buying long-term anyway.
3. Hesai Secondary Offering – Stock Hasn’t Corrected Yet
- Hesai Group (HSAI US) plans to raise around US$450m in its secondary listing in Hong Kong.
- We have looked at the deal dynamics in our previous note.
- In this note, we talk about the deal structure and updates since then.
4. ECM Weekly (8 September 2025)- Metaplanet, Lifedrink, Koei, Hesai, Orion, Myungin, Hesai, Chery
- Aequitas Research’s weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.
- On the IPO front, a few US$1bn+ IPOs are said to be looking to launch later this month, across regions.
- On the placements front, deals continue to flow through as the market remains receptive.
5. NIO (NIO US/9866 HK): An Opportunistically Timed US$1 Billion Raise
- NIO (NIO US), a Chinese premium electric vehicle manufacturer, has launched an equity offering to raise around US$1 billion.
- The raise is opportunistically timed to take advantage of the 83% QTD share price rally and comes hot on the heels of a US$513 million raise in April.
- While NIO continues to target a break-even in 4Q25 and reduce its cash burn, the valuation is stretched. A history of false dawns and intensifying competition warrants caution.
6. Toei Animation Placement: Expensive, but Owns Valuable IP
- Toei Animation (4816 JP) ’s shareholder, Fuji Media, is looking to raise around US$210m from a secondary placement.
- The deal is a large one to digest, representing 41.7 days of the stock’s three month ADV and 4.9% of the shares outstanding.
- In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.
7. NIO HK/ADS Placement – Slightly Better Placed, but Slightly Bigger Deal at US$1bn
- NIO (NIO US) is looking to raise around US$1bn via a primary placement in Hong Kong and US.
- The company had last raised around US$450m in March 2025. The deal didn’t end up doing well.
- In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.
8. Zijin Gold IPO Valuation Analysis
- Our base case valuation of Zijin Gold suggests implied EV of US$40.4 billion and market cap of US$42.9 billion.
- Our EV/EBITDA valuation multiple of 14.3x is based on a 50% premium to the comps’ valuation multiple in 2026.
- We believe a 50% premium valuation to the comps’ average EV/EBITDA multiple is appropriate for Zijin Gold mainly due its higher sales growth, EBITDA margins, and ROE than the comps.
9. Chery Automobile IPO: The Bear Case
- Chery Automobile (CH3456 CH), a Chinese automobile manufacturer, has secured HKEx listing approval for a US$1.5-2.0 billion IPO.
- In Chery Automobile IPO: The Bull Case, I highlighted the key elements of the bull case. In this note, I outline the bear case.
- The bear case rests on weakening trends of the primary business, gross margin pressure, declining contract liabilities and factoring of receivables.
10. Zijin Gold IPO Preview
- Zijin Gold is getting ready to complete its IPO in Hong Kong this year. A successful IPO of Zijin Gold could fetch as high as US$3 billion in IPO proceeds.
- Zijin Gold had sales of US$3.0 billion (up 32.2% YoY) in 2024. Net margin increased from 14.2% in 2023 to 20.8% in 2024.
- There has been a sharp increase in the gap between gold AISC (all-in-sustaining cost) and gold price in the past year, leading to higher profit margins of gold producers globally.
