This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Equity Derivatives on Smartkarma.
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1. Tencent (700.HK) Q2 Earnings: Rally Into Earnings on Historically Low Volatility
- Tencent approaches earnings with low volatility and steady outperformance versus HSI.
- Volatilities are historically low with an earnings release on tap.
- Options market expects a modest move despite recent Tencent momentum.
2. Softbank Group (9984 JP) Outlook (Pre-Earnings Price Range Forecast)
- Softbank Group (9984 JP) is about to release its earnings on August 7th.
- The stock pulled back last week but this week is rallying. The rally can easily reach Q2 (12416) and Q3 (13003) resistance zones, if the earnings are good.
- If the earnings are disappointing, look for initial support at 11145 (Q3). If earnings are really disappointing, look at 10086 (outliers zone).
3. Tencent (700 HK): How Traders Are Positioning Into Earnings
- Context: Tencent (700 HK) is set to release Q2 earnings on 13 April 2025. In the lead-up, options strategies on the Hong Kong Exchange showcase a variety of approaches.
- Highlights: Recent option trades show a mix of bullish and bearish sentiment. Calendar Spreads, Strangles, and Spreads using weekly options are explored.
- Why Read: This review offers real-market insight into how sophisticated participants are positioning around Tencent’s earnings — providing actionable reference points for structuring trades or assessing market expectations.
4. NIFTY 50 Index Outlook: Rebound Rally in Sight? (Profit Targets)
- The NIFTY Index has been falling for 5 straight weeks: it is extremely oversold, according to our model.
- The index should rebound this week, or the next, in any case the downside should be limited at this point.
- A rally could bring the index back to 25398, but we are witnessing a BEARISH pattern at the moment, so any rebound rally will be short-lived.
5. Global Macro Outlook (Aug): Risk Builds Amid Uneven Macro Picture
- Seasonal patterns shift in August, with weaker average returns and greater downside skew supporting a case for selective hedging.
- Most markets are at or near 52-week highs, further strengthening the argument for protective positioning.
- Unlike July’s consistent vol-selling setup, August presents a more mixed environment for volatility strategies.
6. Global Markets Tactical Outlook: Week of August 4 – August 8
- A quick synoptic look at the tactical models for the key indices, stocks, commodities and bonds we cover, for the week August 4 – August 8.
- OVERSOLD: China Mobile (941 HK) , NIFTY Index , KOSPI 200 INDEX
- OVERBOUGHT: NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US) is the only stock clearly overbought.
7. The Story of Serendie, Mitsubishi Electric’s Digital Innovation in the Era of AI
- Mitsubishi Electric’s Serendie platform marks a decisive shift toward AI-powered, customer-centric services, with tangible cost savings, ecosystem expansion, and a tripling of Digital Innovation workforce planned by FY2031.
- AI Leadership: The company showcased advanced automation and optimization capabilities at AWS Summit Japan, positioning itself as a leader in applied AI.
- Punchline is the Japan beta vol trade. Macro risks remain pivotal, as navigating tariff shocks, labor distortions, and central bank policy shifts could shape both performance and volatility exposure.
8. Hong Kong Single Stock Options Weekly (Aug 04–08): HSI Rebounds, Single Stock Option Activity Fades
- Hang Seng Index back in the green with broad based gains across optionable names.
- Single stock option volumes were very lackluster and Call enthusiasm continues to be muted.
- Full slate of earnings announcements on tap for the upcoming week.
9. Toyota Motor (7203 JP) Tactical Outlook After $10B Profit Cut on Tariff Impact
- Toyota Motor (7203 JP) on Thursday announced it expected a profit hit of nearly $10 billion from US tariffs on cars imported into the USA.
- Toyota cut its full-year profit forecast by 16%, citing rising US tariffs on cars, parts, steel, aluminum, uncertainty in market outlook and supplier impacts.
- Our model does not see an overbought state at the moment and the stock was rallying on Friday, the forecast is: higher prices next week.
