Weekly Top Ten Equity Derivatives – Aug 24, 2025

1. Hang Seng Index (HSI) Outlook Ahead of Sep25 Rebalance

By Nico Rosti, MRM Research

• Brian Freitas has highlighted in his August 18th’s insight the details of what to expect in the upcoming, September 5, index rebalance for the Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) .
• The HSI started a modest pullback this week, outlook for the index remains bullish, this insight will try to determine both buy-the-dip and profit targets areas for the coming weeks.
• We have attached at the end of the insight an Excel file with all our price and time model’s data for the HSI INDEX. Check it out.

2. Tencent (700 HK): Positioning After 41% YTD Rally with Collar Strategies

By Gaudenz Schneider

• Context:Tencent (700 HK) has performed strongly this year, gaining 41% YTD, including 5.5% last week around its earnings release.
• Volatility Skew: A rare setup shows calls trading rich versus puts, creating favorable conditions for protective collar strategies.
• Actionable Trade Ideas: Three variations of a protective collar — with charts, pricing, and Greeks — illustrate how to position in the current market.

3. S&P/ASX 200: Profit Targets After Sep-25 Rebalance Methodology Finalized

By Nico Rosti, MRM Research

• As reported by Brian Freitas , 2 days ago S&P DJI confirmed that the proposals in the market consultation will be implemented at the September 25 rebalance. Details here.
• The S&P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) is currently OVERBOUGHT according to our models: the index reached an 83% probability of reversal at the intraweek high (9025). Incoming pullback.
• The index could rally one more week (next week), that should be the end of this rally (short-term forecast), but could also pull back this week, checkour modelkey-supports.

4. Tencent (700 HK): Rally Before Results, Options Market Repricing After

By Gaudenz Schneider

• Context:Tencent (700 HK) reported 2Q25 results last week, beating expectations and fueling a 5.5% move in the stock.
• Market Reaction: Shares rallied while front-end options saw a pronounced volatility crush, rotating the term structure back into contango.
• Why Read: This note unpacks Tencent’s price action and the evolving volatility setup.

5. Nikkei 225 Index Outlook: Key Buy Targets To Watch

By Nico Rosti, MRM Research

• As predicted in our July 15th insight, the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) rallied past 41k (reached near 44k) and now, as predicted by our latest WEEKLY HEAT MAP, went down.
• The index reached a low of 42724 this week, it is only mildly oversold so far, probability of reversal is around 52% at the moment.
• Key support levels to watch are 42577 (Q2) and 41606 (Q3). A file with all our PRICE/TIME model dataset for the Nikkei 225 is attached at the end, for your reference. 

6. Global Markets Tactical Outlook WEEKLY: August 18 – August 22

By Nico Rosti, MRM Research

• A quick synoptic look at the tactical setups for the indices, stocks, commodities and bonds we cover, for the week August 18 – August 22.     .XLSX MODEL DATA FILE ATTACHED.
• OVERBOUGHT at the WEEKLY Close: AAPL US , GOOG US , META US , China Mobile (941 HK) , Toyota Motor (7203 JP) , Softbank Group (9984 JP) , Nikkei 225
• OVERSOLD at the WEEKLY Close: Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA AU) , Crude Oil (CL1 COM COMDTY) 

7. Volatility Cones: Opportunities Across 8 Hong Kong Stocks

By Gaudenz Schneider

• Context: Volatility cones chart implied volatility against historical percentiles across the term structure, providing a clear framework to evaluate whether options are trading cheap or rich.
• Highlight: Several high-profile HK stocks currently show historically cheap implied volatility. With some of them trading near 52-week highs, now may be an opportune time to hedge.
• Why Read: Spot opportunities, assess regime shifts, and manage risk effectively — volatility cones turn complex data into actionable insights for traders and investors.