This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Equity Derivatives on Smartkarma.
Receive this weekly newsletter keeping 45k+ investors in the loop
1. Samsung Electronics (005930 KS): 2x Leveraged ETF AUM Retreats as Performance Drag Mounts
- Following extraordinary price swings in Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) last week, combined AUM in KRX-listed 2x long ETFs retreated from its June peak but remains 47% above launch levels.
- Medium-Term returns expose significant performance drag: since launch, Samsung Electronics has fallen 21.0%, while the leveraged index declined 51.8%; net flows also shifted towards outflows in late July.
- This Insight examines AUM, flows and return multiples across the long and inverse products, showing how daily rebalancing can undermine performance even when the directional call appears correct.
2. Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) Tactical Outlook: Position for Next Leg Up
- Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) jumped +26.8% on Friday, July 31, 2026, primarily driven by a sharp broader market rebound and aggressive short-covering across South Korean chipmakers following a three-day selloff.
- Many are trying to assess if Samsung Eelectronics is done with the sell-off/downtrend that started in June. The long-term bottom cannot be forecasted (we will only know in retrospective).
- This short-term analysis aims at detecting trend patterns that statistically precede certain move sizes, and use that knowledge to identify price targets, to anticipate trend reversals.
3. The SpaceX Volatility Shift: Tesla Merger Speculation, Lock-Up Unlocks, & Hedging Post-IPO Exposure
- SpaceX has been crashing post IPO, now trading below the initial price after short strategies became active as Tesla-SpaceX merger speculation has grown, and the first lockup period expires.
- Q2 positive as measured by consolidated revenues and EBITDA, but short term market perceptions dominate rather than Elon Musk comments on projects such as moon, Mars projects, and Starmind.
- It may be time to revisit our earlier volatility trading strategy in light of the market sentiment after the IPO.
4. Zhongji InnoLight (3308 HK / 300308 CH): Monetising 100% Volatility Through Put Selling
- Zhongji InnoLight (300308 CH / 3308 HK) trades 31% below its all-time high, while the consensus price target implies upside of 35%.
- Historical periods with volatility above 100% have produced higher average and median subsequent one-month returns than lower-volatility regimes.
- Implied volatility above 100% is extreme by any standard, generating exceptionally rich option premiums that can be monetised through put selling, albeit with exposure to further share-price weakness.
5. Zhongji Innolight Tactical UPDATE After Planned US Import Ban
- On Wednesday REUTERS reported the Trump administration is drafting a ban on U.S. imports of new models of Chinese data center components.
- Zhongji Innolight (300308 CH) fell 7.27% on Wednesday, as export-dependent optical module makers could be severaly impacted by the ban. Some see this purely as a negotiation tactic from Trump.
- We recently pointed out downside risk for Zhongji Innolight, so let’s have a look to fresh, updated support and profit target models to evaluate the stock’s possible range.
6. HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN) Tactical Outlook: Recovery or Abyss?
- This insight updates a previous insight published on July 12th were we suggested buying the HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN) imminent pullback, while simultaneously flagging severe downside risks.
- Unfortunately the downside risk materialized, and the stock reached the 730 price zone that we had highlighed as a possible target.
- The stock is at a juncture where a radical re-evaluation of exposure may be considered. This insight leverages our quantitative model to determine the stock short-term direction.
7. Crude Oil Tactical Outlook: Bottom Near, May Rise Again
- Crude Oil Futures dropped 6% on Monday, our model flagged asymmetric upside risk. We will use the United States Oil Fund LP (USO US) ETF for this analysis.
- USO is reaching the lower WEEKLY support levels on our model. This means that oil may briefly jump higher, once this weekly correction settles, this week.
- We expect the correction to end probably this week, barring major unpredictable events driven by decisions made by the US Gov, like ‘peace at any cost’.
8. Macro Monthly August 2026: Global Markets Enter August With Poor Seasonality and Volatility Risk
- Gold stands apart from the broader August seasonal pattern, while its current implied volatility remains elevated relative to history.
- Implied volatility softened across most markets, although several still remain elevated relative to their typical seasonal levels.
- The historical distribution of August vol premium suggests that short volatility exposure may warrant greater caution across markets.
9. Options Weekly: Put Walls and Bull Bets: Options Markets Split on Earnings Week
- Options markets sent conflicting signals this week.
- Defensive put-buying dominated earnings plays, yet a handful of names saw call positioning hit 52-week extremes.
- The week of July 27 produced more than 60 high-severity options pulses, with earnings catalysts driving the bulk of the volatility in PCR readings.
