This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Equity Derivatives on Smartkarma.
Receive this weekly newsletter keeping 45k+ investors in the loop
1. BYD (1211 HK) Tactical Outlook: Taking Off? NOT YET!
- BYD (1211 HK) had a difficult week last week, dropped nearly 10%, but a recovery rally this week is bringing the stock back to previous price levels (last close=99.15).
- We insist that BYD (1211 HK) may be in the process of bottoming and possibly restart rallying.
- This insight will update profit targets for this rally just before the start of the holidays in China, next week.
2. GOLD Tactical Outlook: The Trend Has (Not) Changed
- After the crazy sell-off 2 weeks ago, Gold (GOLD COMDTY) for a moment was stuck in a pattern where it appeared it could sell-off more, but we were wrong.
- It started to trend up again and now is closing up its second week in a row, entering, once again, OVERBOUGHT territory.
- If the trend continues it can go up for another 2 weeks, and in this insight we will analyze what is the most probable profit target for this rally.
3. PM Takaichi’s Supermajority: Trade Nikkei Upside Volatility, Capture the TOPIX Value Anomaly
- The recent election outcome provides policy clarity and reinforces our long-term outlook for Japan equities, although tactical adjustments to directional risk are recommended.
- The core investment thesis advocates for broadening market exposure, favoring an alternative large-cap index that optimally captures the structural governance and fiscal tailwinds.
- Japan’s large-cap stocks maintain their status as a valuation anomaly, offering the lowest P/E and P/B ratios among peers, which may support a selective, quality value investment approach.
4. SoftBank (9984 JP) Tactical Outlook Ahead of 12 Feb Earnings Results
- In our last Jan 14 insight about Softbank Group (9984 JP) we highlighted a buy opportunity for this stock. A number of weeks have passed, here is the updated forecast.
- The stock at the moment is overbought, according to our model: reached 4251 on Monday at the Close. May be a Takaichi elections effect, but it is still overbought.
- Softbank was the only deeply oversold stock, of all the Pan-Asian stocks we track, so it was due for a rebound but now it reached the Q3 profit target.
5. Hong Kong Single Stock Options Weekly (Feb 09 – 13): 1260H Whipsaw in Baba, Baidu and BYD
- Confusion from the Pentagon as high profile names added to, then swiftly removed from, 1260H list.
- A quiet week at the headline level masked constructive breadth and notable moves beneath the surface.
- Single stock options volumes continued to decline alongside directionless activity at the index level.
6. HK Vola Cones: Calm HSI, HSBC (5 HK) Historically Rich
- Context: This Insight provides volatility cones for the Hang Seng and eight prominent Hong Kong stocks. Volatility cones provide the framework to evaluate whether options are trading cheap or rich.
- Highlights: Hong Kong equity IV remains selective rather than systemic—index volatility is benign, while dispersion across stocks creates targeted pre-earnings opportunities
- Why Read: Spot opportunities, assess regime shifts, and manage risk effectively — volatility cones turn complex data into actionable insights for traders and investors.
7. Tokio Marine High Conviction: ‘Re-New’ Alpha & End of ZIRP Spark Fundamental Breakout; DEC26 Options
- A structural overhaul in Japan combined with a global specialty insurance powerhouse trajectory points to a significant upside beyond domestic limitations.
- Post-ZIRP environment and aggressive unwinding of cross-shareholdings unlock previously obscured value and boost capital returns.
- The company’s mispriced P/E multiple and strong ROE forecast suggest a fundamental valuation breakout fueled by strategic, long-term catalysts.
8. Bitcoin Tactical View: The Bottom Is Near, BUY Opportunity?
- Bitcoin (BTCUSD) has lost around 52% of its value since the peak at 125k in the end of September 2025 to the 60k bottom last week. Now trading at 69k.
- The latest leg of this sell off may be some sort of capitulation, our WEEKLY model is showing that BTCUSD spot has reached extremely oversold levels.
- This insight is for those interested in adding a speculative asset to their portfolio, maybe via CME Micro Bitcoin Futures or Bitcoin ETFs.
