This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Equity Derivatives on Smartkarma.
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1. HSI INDEX Tactical Outlook Ahead of December 6 Rebalance
- As Brian Freitas recently outlined, the Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) changes will be announced November 21st (this Friday) and take effect on December 6th.
- Brian predicted index additions and no deletions. As with all rebalances, inflows, outflows, and adjustments could trigger volatility. Our models, trained on decades of market data, help forecast these moves.
- Currently the HSI INDEX is in a mild WEEKLY correction, after a previous modest 2-week rally. We are still waiting for a meaningful correction, after the recent monster rally.
2. S&P/ASX 200 Outlook Ahead of Dec25 Index Rebalance
- November 21st marks the close of the review period for the S&P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) December rebalance. Changes will be announced on December 5th.
- Implementation of changes begins December 19th, read Brian Freitas‘ recent insight to learn about the 7 possible modifications to the ASX 200.
- Passive tracker flows can significantly move markets around index rebalance dates. In this insight, we leverage our models to identify critical support and resistance zone (the index is very OVERSOLD).
3. NVIDIA’s $500B Order Book: Implications for Valuation, Option Strategies
- NVIDIA has secured unprecedented demand visibility with a reported USD 500 Billion order book for its next-gen AI chips, solidifying its position as the keystone of the AI industrial revolution.
- The company’s financial health highlighted by a USD 48.3 Billion net cash balance and strategic capital return, affirming confidence that structural growth will outweigh geopolitical risks.
- Following a period of short-term volatility and profit-taking, the confluence of long-term structural catalysts suggests the stock is poised to resume a higher trajectory and trading range.
4. The Nikkei Semiconductor Index Rebalance, Kioxia, Nikkei Volatility Hedge
- Kioxia set for inclusion in the Nikkei Semiconductor Index next week, alongside JX Advanced Metals, less than one day’s average daily volume in passive inflow at the close.
- Kioxia’s Q2 2025 results show an accelerating QoQ recovery and solid Q3 2025 forecasts, driven by high demand from data center and smart device products, confirming effective business structure reform.
- Stock is fairly valued after 2025 rally, potential weaknesses being value metrics such as P/E alongside execution of margin and product pipeline targets.
5. Asian Stocks Tactical Outlook (Week Nov 17 – Nov 21)
- A tactical snapshot of the Asian indices and stocks we cover.
- Multiple Asian stocks we track are flashing oversold signals—creating tactical long setups worth considerin.
- We find no overbought stocks or indices in Asia at present. US equities show the same pattern, indicating a synchronized global market pullback
6. Nikkei 225 (NKY) Tactical Outlook After Japan’s Economy Contracts on Tariff Hit
- Japan’s Q3 GDP shrank 1.8% vs forecast 2.5% (annualised), while consumption slowed to 0.1%. This is the first contraction in six quarter.
- The cause is the drop in exports in the face of U.S. tariffs, automakers in particular plummeted, following a period of hiking exports before tariffs came into effect.
- We’ve consistently flagged the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) as overbought. This tactical short-term analysis pinpoints critical support (and resistance, but we think the index may fall).
7. BYD (1211 HK): Leverage Softening Fundamentals with Short Calls
- Bearish fundamental views are strengthening: Recent Smartkarma Insights argue BYD (1211 HK) is overvalued, with slowing sales growth and valuation multiples pointing to limited upside.
- Call overwriting offers efficient yield: Implied volatility in the mid-30s enables attractive income generation.
- Strike and expiry selection matter: Short-dated December options provide the best liquidity, while higher strikes balance premium income with room for near-term upside.
8. 4-Hour Contagion: NVIDIA Q3, Advantest, the AI Flow Footprint on the Global Synchronized Selloff
- Performance was in line with estimates, with total revenue of $57.01B and an expanding Non-GAAP Gross Margin of 73.6%. Management issued robust Q4 revenue guidance of $65B.
- Despite strong fundamentals, the stock’s muted reaction and subsequent slide highlight the risk of unusual, synchronized cross-asset market drops, signaling a need to examine, and hedge against potential systemic vulnerability.
- The synchronized cross-asset market drop on November 20, lacking a clear catalyst, suggests hidden systemic risk driven in part by algorithmic positioning.
9. JD.com (9618 HK / JD US): Top Option Trades Reveal Strong Bearish Sentiment
- Context: Over the past few trading days, JD.com (9618 HK) multi-leg option strategies showcased a variety of approaches. Strategy highlights are provided.
- Highlights: Strategies tend to have a short-term horizon, with approximately 40% of all strategies employing weekly options. Bearish views dominate with almost 70% of strategies being put spreads.
- Why read: This Insight breaks down complex option strategies and sheds light on market sentiment and positioning. Detailed examples provide actionable insights that could inspire similar strategies,
10. Hong Kong Single Stock Options Weekly (Nov 17 – 21): Breadth Collapses, Put Volumes Rise
- Broad declines set a cautious tone as only a handful of single stocks avoided losses last week amid rising option volumes.
- Market breadth deteriorated sharply, marking the weakest showing of the past year and highlighting the pressure across Hong Kong equities.
- We highlight companies reporting next week in what shapes up as a busy week ahead with Baba and Meituan both reporting.
