This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Equity Derivatives on Smartkarma.
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1. Tariff Shock Sends HK Volatility Higher: Meituan (3690 HK) Looks Cheap, Alibaba (9988 HK) Stays Rich
- Context: Volatility cones provide a straightforward framework to evaluate whether options are trading cheap or rich. This Insight provides volatility analysis for eight prominent Hong Kong stocks and the HSI Index.
- Highlights: Recent market turbulence moderately lifted implied volatility for many stocks, but not to extreme levels. The approaching earnings season impacts October and November implied volatility.
- Why Read: Spot opportunities, assess regime shifts, and manage risk effectively — volatility cones turn complex data into actionable insights for traders and investors.
2. Nikkei 225 (NKY) Tactical Setup: BUY The Bottom, Not the Dip!
- The Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) dived to 46544 on Tuesday, after peaking at 48.5k last week. It was ultra-overbought.
- This correction offers an opportunity to re-enter the rally (or enter the rally, if you missed it), but don’t be too eager to enter early.
- The Nikkei could correct easily for 2,3 or even 4 weeks when this pattern is encountered, according to our TIME MODEL. 43.5k may be the right area, details in insight.
3. Pop Mart (9992 HK): New Options Listing Poised for a Volatile Start
- Context:Pop Mart (9992 HK) begins trading monthly options on the Hong Kong Exchange (HKEX) on Monday, 13 October 2025, marking its debut in the derivatives market.
- This Insight examines expected implied volatility, referencing both realized volatility trends and peer valuations for context.
- Why Read: Gain early insight into Pop Mart’s option launch, including option specifications and how implied volatility could set the tone for first-day trading.
4. BYD (1211 HK) Tactical Outlook: Bottoming, But Wait to Buy The Dips…
- As discussed in our previous BYD insight on October 3, the stock is oversold and could start a rally soon.
- BYD (1211 HK) was heavily overbought at its peak in mid-2025, then declined >30% in a few months. It’s oversold.
- However at the moment our model has identified the current short-term trend pattern as bearish: a 1-2 weeks rally can happen, but then the stock will pullback again. Caution advised.
5. Advantest: Tests Are the Unsung Hero of the AI Chip Rally
- Advantest, a leader in semiconductor testing, is uniquely positioned to capitalize on the AI chip rally, driven by increasing complexity and the critical need for stringent testing in next-generation devices.
- Record-Breaking financial performance and strategic capacity expansions signal long-term growth, despite anticipated near-term revenue fluctuations, setting the stage for future market outperformance.
- Technological dominance in areas like chiplet architecture and advanced digital solutions further solidifies Advantest’s structural advantage, hinting at a compelling opportunity for discerning investors.
6. NIFTY 50 Tactical Outlook: Indecision May Lead to Pullback
- The NIFTY Index has been stuck in the 25k price zone since May 2025. The index is going nowhere.
- Our quantitative model indicates a 62.5% probability of reversal next week, if the index closes around 25300 (if the close is positive).
- If the index closes this week down, a pullback may be under way, entry zones details are discussed in detail in the insight.
7. CSI 300 (SHSZ300) Tactical Outlook: Severe Downside Tail Risk
- The CSI 300 Index (SHSZ300) has began a small correction. Our model has identified the current trend pattern as bearish. The pullback could reach the 4.3k/4.1k support zone.
- These corrections can last up to 4 weeks, but usually they resolve after 2-3 weeks (the index has already closed 1 week down, so there could be 1-2 more weeks).
- According to our model, the key support area is 4300: if the index breaks that support, it can fall quickly to 4100 or 4000. Read detailed tactical analysis in the insight.
8. The Volatility Playbook: Japan Vs. Developed Markets
- Amidst US-China tariff uncertainties and divergent central bank policies, a strategic approach to volatility across key global indices is being considered, aiming to capitalize on anticipated market shifts.
- The evolving political landscape in Japan, alongside a unique monetary policy trajectory, presents distinct volatility opportunities compared to volatility markets in the US and Europe.
- Part I explores a multi-leg volatility strategy, designed to leverage specific market conditions. Part II is a deep dive into VIX, VNKY, VSTOXX trading.
9. Hong Kong Single Stock Options Weekly (Oct 13 – 17): Option Stress Builds, Breadth Weakens
- Single stock options showed early signs of stress, with both volumes and implied vols moving higher as Put trading outpaced Calls.
- Breadth was weak across single names, with only 3 of 11 sectors trading higher.
- We provide a table of earnings events for the week ahead.
