This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Equity Derivatives on Smartkarma.
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1. KOSPI 200 Tactical Call: Positioning for September Pullback
- The KOSPI 200 INDEX reached a new all time high last Friday, closing at 462.74. Let’s be clear: it’s very overbought according to our model.
- Our forecast is that the index will NOT rally for more than another 1 or 2 weeks (i.e. this week and maybe one more week).
- 449-442 is the price support zone with 50%-75% probability of reversal, if it was hit this week (this data will be updated if the index closes up this week).
2. HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN) Tactical Outlook: Will The Rally Continue?
- HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN) has been in a mild pullback since the end of July. The stock closed up for 2 weeks but has not reached any significative overbought level.
- This week HDFC Bank went down a bit, stayed above the Q1 support level but this pattern is very bullish, in the past it gave way to long, profitable rallies.
- We cannot say for sure if the stock will rally up from here, but if it does, consider profit targets north of 1034 (Q3), and it could rally higher.
3. ‘Toppish’ Nikkei 225’s Outlook: Where to Cover, Where to Buy
- The Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) reached 44790 on Wednesday, this is the 3rd week up in a row for the index, this market is OVERBOUGHT.
- The outlook remains bullish, the forecast is for a pullback, followed by another leg up.
- This insight’s goal is to help you figure out where to cover your LONG Nikkei 225 positions, and where to add more LONG positions during the pullback.
4. HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN): Ready for the Rally with Tactical Low-Cost Options
- Context:HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN) remains in a bullish setup. Quantitative models highlight further upside potential in the near term and identify key support levels.
- Trade Idea: With implied volatility near multi-year lows (12th percentile), long call strategies are favored. Suitable expiries and strikes are outlined, with an alternative structure discussed for reducing premium outlay.
- Why Read: This Insight combines directional analysis with volatility signals, highlighting a tactical options strategy where low implied volatility and bullish probabilities align, offering investors defined risk/reward.
5. Asia/Pacific Stocks Outlook For the Week Sep 15-19
- 1-Week directional forecast for the Asian indices and stocks we track, based on our proprietary probability model.
- OVERBOUGHT: Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) , Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) (2330 TT) , Softbank Group (9984 JP) , HSI Index , KOSPI 200 INDEX , Nikkei 225 .
- OVERSOLD: BYD Company (1211 HK) , S&P/ASX 200 INDEX .
6. HK Volatility Cones: Volatility on the Rise, Meituan and Ping An Historically Cheap
- Context: Volatility cones provide a clear framework to evaluate whether options are trading cheap or rich.
- Highlights: Implied volatility has increased across the board, but while some stocks recorded a 5-10% increase, other just added 1-2%. Upcoming November earnings start to shape the term structure.
- Why Read: Spot opportunities, assess regime shifts, and manage risk effectively — volatility cones turn complex data into actionable insights for traders and investors.
7. BYD (1211 HK) Tactical Outlook: Rally or Bear Rally?
- In our previous insight from September 2 we suggested if BYD (1211 HK) reached 102 could have been a good BUY signal.
- It took a bit more than a couple of week for the stock to bottom at 102.80 (this week), then rally 10% to 113.50. Impressive, but….
- … it could be a Bear rally, so in this insight we will try to assess BYD upside potential, and suggest some tactical positioning for the next few weeks.
8. Hong Kong Single Stock Options Weekly (Sept 15 – 19): Caution Signs Emerge as HSI Stretches Higher
- HSI tested new highs before fading, as weak breadth and strong option volumes highlighted diverging signals in Hong Kong equities.
- Technically, HSI may have reached a level from which minor corrections have started.
- Option trading activity surged, reaching its busiest day since November, even as overall market momentum faltered.
9. Global Monetary Tides Turn: Fed Cuts, Europe Holds, Japan’s Stance and Market Impacts Explored
- Global central banks are navigating divergent monetary policies, with the Fed initiating rate cuts while European and Japanese counterparts maintain cautious stances amid varying inflation and growth outlooks.
- Significant economic headwinds, including the impact of tariffs and political instability in key regions, are influencing central bank decisions and contributing to a nuanced global economic landscape.
- This environment of diverging policies and persistent economic pressures sets the stage for a strategic market opportunity, focusing on volatility dynamics in developed markets.
