Weekly Top Ten Event-Driven and Index Rebalance – Jun 22, 2025

1. Santos Ltd (STO AU): FIRB Approval For XRG’s Tilt Will Be No Pushover

By David Blennerhassett, Quiddity Advisors

• Aussie O&G producer Santos Ltd (STO AU) has announced a non-binding Scheme from XRG, which comprises Abu Dhabi’s National Oil Company, Abu Dhabi Development Holding Company, and Carlyle 
• The consortium is offering US$5.76 (A$8.89)/share, a 28% premium to last close. Initial Offers were pitched at US$5.04/share, followed by US$5.42/share. 
• Confirmatory due diligence has been afforded. A firm bid would require a multitude of reg approvals in Australia, PNG, and the US.

2. [Japan Event] Potentially Interesting Dynamics of Post-Tender NTT Data (9613) Trading. $8bn+ One Way

By Travis Lundy, Quiddity Advisors

• The NTT Data Corp (9613 JP) Tender Offer closed today. Results will come out tomorrow. I expect it will have been successful. 
• That will mean some US$8bn+ of passive tracking flows to sell and $8bn+ to buy related to this event alone in the next 3 months. 
• And there are some very interesting dynamics to consider in the meantime. 

3. Shin Kong (2888 TT)/Taishin (2887 TT) – Short Timer, FX Risk, Index Flows – Time To Buy Vs Peers

By Travis Lundy, Quiddity Advisors

• Shin Kong Financial Holding (2888 TT) and Taishin Financial Holding (2887 TT) are scheduled to merge in less than 6 weeks. 
• The recent TWD strength has meant sharp losses for Shin Kong Life, but the merger agreement the FSC agreed has Taishin explicitly supporting Shin Kong Life. 
• There are near-term flows and technical limitations which make this situation interesting again. Grab your shorts! It could be a bumpy ride!

4. Santos (STO AU): XRG Consortium’s Big Offer; Index Impact

By Brian Freitas, Periscope Analytics

• A consortium comprising ADNOC and Carlyle have offered US$5.76/share (A$8.8807/share) to take Santos Ltd (STO AU) private. That values Santos equity at A$28.8bn and an Enterprise Value of A$36bn.
• With the offer price at a premium of 28%-44% to last and VWAPs, and the Board supporting the offer, this looks like a done deal.
• Santos Ltd (STO AU) is a member of all the major S&P/ASX indices and there will be ad hoc inclusions to the indices at the time of the delisting.

5. Vishal Mega Mart (VMM IN) Placement: PE Selling Will Lead to Large Passive Buying

By Brian Freitas, Periscope Analytics

• Reports indicate that Kedaara Capital Fund is looking to sell 22% of Vishal Mega Mart at a floor price of INR 110/share, a 11.9% discount to the last close.
• The placement will lead to a huge increase in the free float for the stock and Vishal Mega Mart could be added to a global index in August.
• Vishal Mega Mart is also an inclusion to another global index at the close on Friday and we could see more buying in the stock following the increase in float.

6. [Japan Event] Seven Bank (8410) To Buy Back Up to 17.0% of Shares Out Tomorrow

By Travis Lundy, Quiddity Advisors

• Today after the close, Seven Bank Ltd (8410 JP) announced a MASSIVE ToSTNeT-3 transaction to buy back up to 200,000,000 shares (17.0% of shares out) for ¥52.4bn. Tomorrow AM. 
• There is a complex iterative calculation on the part of Seven Eleven Japan to figure out how many shares they should put into the buyback.
• I see a minimum buyback of 10.8%. 17% would be great. But there is a potential issue on the back end of which investors should be aware.

7. HDB Financial IPO: Offer Details & Index Entry Timing

By Brian Freitas, Periscope Analytics

• HDB Financial Services Ltd (0117739D IN) is looking to list on the exchanges by selling up to INR125bn (US$1.46bn) of stock at a valuation of around INR 620bn (US$7.2bn).
• The stock will not get Fast Entry to either of the global indices. The earliest inclusion in a global index should take place in December.
• HDB Financial Services Ltd‘s peers have traded well over the last 6 months and that could spill over into demand for the stock. Grey market premium is pretty high.

8. [Japan Activism] Mitsui Matsushima (1518) Ups Buyback Tender to 35.8%, Murakami-San Group To Sell

By Travis Lundy, Quiddity Advisors

• Today after the close, Mitsui Matsushima (1518 JP) announced it would increase its buyback from 3.5mm shares to 4.0mm shares (31.3% to 35.8%). It also announced a Tender Offer Buyback.
• The tender offer starts tomorrow and goes til mid-July, paid 8 August. Murakami Group will tender a minimum of 3.3mm shares (more likely 4.2mm). 
• This is not a huge immediate win, but it’s OK. And it changes the structure of the company’s balance sheet, ROE, effective ROE, and possibly its dividend. 

9. ENN Energy (2688 HK): ENN Natural Gas’ Application Proof Is Out. Interesting For What Is Not Present

By David Blennerhassett, Quiddity Advisors

• On the 26th March, ENN Energy (2688 HK) announced a cash/scrip Offer from ENN Natural Gas (600803 CH) (ENN-NG), its largest shareholder.
• The pushback is that the scrip portion pivots off the value of newly-listed ENN-NG H-shares. And the IFA’s theoretical assessment on such leaves a lot to be desired.
• A redacted version of ENN-NG’s application proof is now out. Curiously, the share ratio – new ENN-NG H Shares for each ENN shares – is noticeably absent

10. [Japan M&A] NTT Docomo Buys Out Carta Holdings (3688) Minorities – Done Deal

By Travis Lundy, Quiddity Advisors

• On 16 June 2025, NTT (Nippon Telegraph & Telephone) (9432 JP) sub NTT Docomo and Dentsu Inc (4324 JP) announced Docomo would buy out minorities in Dentsu sub Carta Holdings.
• It’s an OK price, not a great price. But while they are not calculated by advisors, at least the Target Board talks about the value of synergies to minorities.
• The price is light, but the combined irrevocables and large individual shareholders not brought over the wall get this over the line.