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1. How Oaktree’s Howard Marks Spots a Market Bubble
- Howard Marks correctly called the dot com bubble in the early 2000s
- The 1990s were a placid period for credit investors but a hot time for equity investors
- Being too far ahead of your time in predicting market trends can be painful and indistinguishable from being wrong
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2. Steno Signals #182 – Cutting Through the Trump Noise: A Massive Uniform Move Is Happening
- Happy Sunday, and welcome to my weekly editorial on everything macro and markets.
- We are now at the final innings of the inauguration week, and oh boy did it surprise and entertain right about everyone (including me).
- From full-blown tariffs from the get-go being the base case, a Trump meme coin being launched into the week and a government sponsored Bitcoin reserve (or at least a clear reference to the crypto space during his first week) to barely any mentioning of crypto, no immediate tariffs on China and very accommodative policies on the fiscal side, which makes the 3% deficit target proposed by Scott Bessent look unrealistic at best.
3. Ep. 252: Jay Pelosky on How US Equities Could Underperform Rest of the World
- Jay Peloski, founder of TPW Advisory and former top-ranked analyst at Morgan Stanley, discusses the tripolar framework of regional integration and competition between Europe, Asia, and the Americas
- Europe faces challenges with common taxation and revenue creation, Asia is increasingly integrated around China, and the Americas have not fully leveraged North America integration and engagement with South America
- Regional competition is seen in key areas such as AI, climate, and defense, with each region vying for economic influence and competitive advantage amid global shifts and challenges
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4. Generative AI, LLMs, & the Evolution of Product Teams w/ Dr. Thársis Souza | The New Barbarians #005
- Mark has 15 years of experience delivering new technology products in a variety of companies and holds a PhD in Computer Science from UCL University of London
- He is the author of the book Taming LLMs and the creator of Podcastify AI
- Mark recapped recent events in the markets, discussed taming LLMs and creating robotic podcasts, and highlighted the success of Bitcoin ETFs
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5. The Drill: The commoditization of AI is here
- Let’s start with DeepSeek.
- The trajectory toward singularity may be accelerating faster than previously forecasted.
- With barriers to entry for AI development rapidly lowering and efficiency gains fueling greater demand rather than less, it seems inevitable that this trend will reshape the AI landscape.
6. Overview #14 – The Emperor Has No Clothes Moment
- A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes or outlook
- The narrative change around US tech spending on AI has potentially positive implications for Chinese technology shares
- India sets the stage for interest rate cuts and the budget cuts taxes for the middle classes to boost consumption
7. EM Fixed Income Focus: What we know (or don’t) after Week 1
- EM markets reacting to executive orders and remarks from President Trump, particularly focused on tariffs
- EM currencies have shown some strength due to lack of tariff implementation so far
- Market relief since the inauguration, but uncertainty remains around tariff policy and other domestic issues
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8. Mexico faces a deficit – and Donald Trump
- President Claudia Sheinbaum took office in October, inheriting a delicate economic situation from her popular predecessor Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador.
- Many lower income people in Mexico are benefiting from higher wages and government social programs, but others, particularly middle and higher income earners, feel stagnant economic growth and uncertainty due to US tariff threats.
- The relationship between Mexico and the US, along with Sheinbaum’s plans and the ability to attract outside investment, will be key factors in Mexico’s economic growth under her leadership.
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9. Get Ready For Another Shock to Housing Affordability
- Inflation, particularly in housing costs, has been a big theme in recent American life.
- Despite the Fed raising interest rates to fight inflation, rent price growth has been moderating.
- Multifamily housing developers are feeling the strain of higher interest rates and a lack of supply due to decreased activity in the market.
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10. The Shift Of Supply Chains From China To Southeast Asia
- China’s rise as a global manufacturing hub was fueled by WTO accession in 2001, supported by export-friendly policies, low-cost labor, and rapid infrastructure development.
- A 1994 currency devaluation and a shift to value-added goods boosted productivity as labor costs increased.
- Since the mid-2010s, rising costs and geopolitical factors have driven supply chains to Southeast Asia.