This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Tech Hardware and Semiconductor on Smartkarma.
Receive this weekly newsletter keeping 45k+ investors in the loop
1. TSMC 1Q26: 66% Gross Margin Beat — What It Means for ASML, NVIDIA, MediaTek & 7 More
- Record 66.2% gross margin beat guidance by 120bps; management raised full-year revenue growth to “above 30%” and capex to high end of $52-56B on insatiable AI demand.
- Supply constraints persist through 2027 as TSMC builds three new N3 fabs globally. AI accelerator revenue CAGR reaffirmed at “higher-50s” through 2029.
- Supply chain scorecard: strongly positive for ASML, SK Hynix, ASE; mixed for MediaTek and Apple; negative for Intel and Samsung foundry competitiveness.
2. Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Recovers from Lows; ChipMOS Spike
- TSMC: +17.6% Premium; Recovered from Lows, Still Just Within Long Level
- ASE: +0.3% Premium; Recovered from Discount; Remains a Long Opportunity
- ChipMOS: +5.7% Premium; Surged Through +1 SD; Consider Shorting the Spread
3. Why Nanya Results and Placement Mean Memory Tightness to Last Much Longer; Close SK Hynix/Nanya Pair
- Management Addresses Recently Closed US$2.5B Strategic Placement. SanDisk, Kioxia, SK Hynix’s Solidigm, and Cisco took 10.19% of Nanya Technology (2408 TT) to lock in legacy DRAM supply.
- FY1Q26 Confirms Supply-Driven Tightness That Will Persist. Nanya reported 67.9% gross margin with ASPs +>70% QoQ on falling bit shipments; management cannot satisfy market demand this year.
- Close Our Long SK Hynix (000660 KS) / Short Nanya Technology (2408 TT) Pair. SK has rallied to new highs while Nanya has retraced from its peak.
4. OpenClaw’s GTC 2026 Moment
- OpenClaw is the #1 most popular open source project in the history of humanity, and it did so in just a few weeks, exceeding what Linux did in 30 years.”
- NVIDIA’s NemoClaw builds on OpenClaw by addressing the security concerns that would otherwise make enterprise-wide adoption impossible
- Jensen coined at new acronym at GTC 2026, GaaS, or Agents as a Service. GaaS is what could very well drive explosive demand for good, old-fashioned CPU compute. Let’s see..
5. Where the AI & Semi Supply Chain Is Actually Flowing: Bottom-Up Read From Taiwan’s March Sales Data
- Taiwan’s March 2026 monthly sales, covering our universe of about 150 supply-chain names, show revenue up +46% aggegate sales growth YoY, one of the strongest months of the current cycle.
- The strongest pockets are where AI hardware buildout flows: Memory +196%, AI Server ODMs +57%, Electronic Components +60%, TSMC +45%, successive layers of the same AI-capex wave.
- The chain is bifurcated. Display, Analog, and PC names are flat; ASIC design-service names are down. One cannot treat the AI supply chain as one block.
6. TSMC Q1 2026. TeraFab? There Are No Shortcuts!
- TSMC reported Q1 2026 revenues of NT$1,134.10 billion (~$35.90B), at the high end of management’s guided range of $34.6–$35.8B and essentially in line with the NT$1,137B consensus.
- Gross margin came in at 66.2%, up 390 basis points from Q4 2025’s 62.3%. That’s a record Q1 print, and it confirms that Q4’s margin expansion was no one-off
- When asked if he was concerned about competition from Elon Musk’s TeraFab, he response was basically to stay that there are no shortcuts. I guess that’s a no, then.
7. Anthropic’s Dario Amodei. Liar With A God Complex Or AI Safety Hero? Part II
- After receiving it’s official supply chain risk designation letter on March 4, the company filed a lawsuit against the DoD on March 9
- OpenAI saw a dramatic rise in unsubscriptions following their Pentagon contract signing, Anthropic benefitted from a surge in subscriptions that boosted them to #1 downloaded App on the App Store
- Following a groundswell of support from the likes of Microsoft, Amazon, Google & Apple, as well as multiple individual AI researchers, Anthropic was granted an injunction against the DoD’s designation
8. Anthropic’s Dario Amodei. Liar With A God Complex Or AI Safety Hero? Part I
- Anthropic’s meltdown with the Pentagon has faded from the limelight, but the issues this episode surfaced remain very much unresolved, a ticking time bomb as the military further embraces AI
- Amodei engaged with the Pentagon via a loosey-goosey “other” type of contract and put operational control of their integration in the hands of Palantir. What could possibly go wrong?
- OpenAI’s rush to fill the Anthropic gap was ill judged, as was Amodei’s intemperate internal memo and the US Administrations Supply Chain Risk designation. Plenty of blame to go around.
9. TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): 1Q26 with EPS of NT$22.1, with Full-Year USD Revenue Growth Over 30%.
- TSMC (2330) Sets New Record in 1Q26 with EPS of NT$22.08, Upgrading Full-Year USD Revenue Growth to Over 30%.
- From a product mix perspective, advanced processes continue to drive this quarter’s growth and profitability.
- Chairman stated that with sustained strong demand for advanced processes and robust AI momentum, even amid macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainties.
10. ASML Q1 2026. Revenue Beat, Guidance Raised. What’s Not To Like?
- ASML reported Q126 revenues of €8.8 billion, above the midpoint of the guided range of €8.2 to €8.9 billion and comfortably ahead of street consensus of around €8.6 billion
- Guided Q2 2026 net sales to €8.4 – €8.8 billion, and raised FY 2026 revenue outlook to €36- €40 billion, up from the previous range of €34 to €39 billion
- The stock has had a remarkable run, up around 40% year to date, and the market’s initial reaction has been muted. At 40x forward earnings, that’s hardly a surprise.
