This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Tech Hardware and Semiconductor on Smartkarma.
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1. Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Beat Drives Spread Surge; UMC Sharp Headroom Decline
- TSMC: +27.7% Premium; Short the ADR Spread Anywhere Above 24%
- UMC: +1.3% Premium; Large Change in ADR Headroom, Premium Biased to Rise?
- ASE: +1.5% Premium; Consider Going Long the Spread Given Semiconductor Rally
2. TSMC Results: Leading-Edge Nodes Push Margins and Growth Above 2026E Market Assumptions
- TSMC: 4Q25 Results and Guidance Point to 2026E Margins and Revenue Ahead of Consensus
- Management expects AI accelerator revenue to remain strong and compound at a mid-to-high-50% CAGR through 2029E. This growth is complemented by resilient demand for high-end smartphone chips.
- Structural Long: We estimate that TSMC’s guidance implies roughly a 10% uplift required for current 2026E consensus earnings and an all-time high margins outlook.
3. CES 26. NVIDIA Reboots Its AD Stack With Alpamayo But Mercedes-Benz Stays Stumm. Hang On A Momenta!
- NVIDIA launched an all-new AI inspired autonomous driving solution stack at CES last week. Known as Alpamayo, it will make its debut on the Mercedes-Benz flagship 2025 CLA
- Yet, Mercedes-Benz wasn’t mentioned in the press release and wasn’t invited on stage to celebrate with Jensen Huang. Why?
- Mercedes-Benz has a new ADAS partner, China’s Momenta. They are jointly developing an ADAS system for the Chinese market plus a luxury robotaxi fleet for the Abu Dhabi market. Ouch!
4. TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): 2026: ~30% YoY Growth Amid Geopolitical & Demand Risks
- 1Q26 Outlook: A. Revenue: 34.6-35.8B (+4% QoQ / +38% YoY) B. FX: 31.6 C. GM: 63-65% D. OPM: 54-56%
- Overall UTR to increase slightly; N3 GM to exceed company average at some point this year. 2nm to start diluting GM in 2H26.
- Don’t know if semiconductor cycle can sustain 3-5 years, but AI will continue for several years.
5. SMIC (981.HK): The EUV Issue Remains, Forcing China to Develop Its Own Technology Now?
- Due to U.S. export restrictions on chip technology to China, mainland China’s semiconductor industry has been significantly impacted.
- Currently, in terms of chip manufacturing technology, ASML Holding NV (ASML NA) advancements in lithography machine-related technology represent a formidable barrier that’s extremely difficult to overcome.
- China must gradually build an upstream supply chain for chips to develop independent chip production technology.
6. CES 2026: Humanoid Robots Are Here & Getting Better. One Day, They May Even Be Useful For Something.
- According to ChatGPT, there was a significant uptick in the scale and scope of humanoid robots on display at CES 2026
- While AMD & NVIDIA humanoid robot keynote segments were terrible, Boston Dynamics impressed and Unitree should really have had a keynote not just an exhibition booth
- Unitree remains on track to IPO later this year at at a $7 billion valuation. When it comes to China’s future role in humanoid robots, think EV, robotaxi, solar power!
