Indonesian Equities | Buy-Side Investment Research

Defriansyah Has

Equity Bottom-Up

Astra International is a leading Indonesian conglomerate with a highly diversified business portfolio across seven main segments: automotive, financial services, heavy equipment, mining, construction, agribusiness, infrastructure, information technology, and property. The company manufactures, distributes, and services vehicles, provides financial and insurance services, and is involved in palm oil plantations, logistics, and property development. It was founded in 1957 and is headquartered in Jakarta, Indonesia.

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<li>September 2026 national car wholesales rose 28% YoY, but Astra's 9M26 volume grew only 13% versus 21% for the industry, reducing its market share to 49.3%.</li>
<li>Mining-Linked risks dominate the downside. UNTR's cash generation deteriorated sharply, while Martabe's unresolved permit status adds material uncertainty to gold earnings.</li>
<li>The discount is not enough yet. Our indicative NAV implies a 13% discount, but stabilising margins and cash generation remain unproven. BEARISH; low-to-moderate conviction.</li>
</ul>


September 2026 national car wholesales rose 28% YoY, but Astra's 9M26 volume grew only 13% versus 21% for the industry, reducing its market share to 49.3%.
Mining-Linked risks dominate the downside. UNTR's cash generation deteriorated sharply, while Martabe's unresolved permit status adds material uncertainty to gold earnings.
The discount is not enough yet. Our indicative NAV implies a 13% discount, but stabilising margins and cash generation remain unproven. BEARISH; low-to-moderate conviction.


Astra International (ASII): A Discount on Paper, a Cash-Earnings Test in Practice

Bank Negara Indonesia (BNI) is an Indonesian state-owned bank providing a comprehensive range of commercial and consumer banking products and services. These include savings, loans, credit cards, wealth management, trade finance, and digital banking solutions. Established on July 5, 1946, it is headquartered in Jakarta, Indonesia.

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<li>
Bottom line: BBNI is the only one of Indonesia’s four largest banks below book value (0.76x versus BMRI 1.34x, BBRI 1.48x, BBCA 2.76x); we rate it BULLISH, moderate-to-low conviction.</li>
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 What the price implies: at Rp3,430, a perpetual ROE of about 9.9% — below FY2025 normalized ROE of 12.89% and the 1H26 run-rate of roughly 12.7%–12.9%.</li>
<li>
 Why conviction is low: funding, margin and capital pressure has not been shown to stop; scenarios are model assumptions, not forecasts, and do not show earning power has stabilized.</li>
</ul>



Bottom line: BBNI is the only one of Indonesia’s four largest banks below book value (0.76x versus BMRI 1.34x, BBRI 1.48x, BBCA 2.76x); we rate it BULLISH, moderate-to-low conviction.

 What the price implies: at Rp3,430, a perpetual ROE of about 9.9% — below FY2025 normalized ROE of 12.89% and the 1H26 run-rate of roughly 12.7%–12.9%.

 Why conviction is low: funding, margin and capital pressure has not been shown to stop; scenarios are model assumptions, not forecasts, and do not show earning power has stabilized.


BBNI IJ: When Credit Growth Outruns Earning Power

PT Puradelta Lestari Tbk is an integrated property developer primarily known for developing Kota Deltamas, a large-scale integrated industrial estate, residential, and commercial area in Cikarang, West Java, Indonesia. The company's core activities include land acquisition, development, sale, and leasing of industrial, commercial, and residential properties, along with providing supporting infrastructure and facilities. Headquartered in Jakarta, Indonesia, the company was founded in 1993.

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<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pt-puradelta-lestari-tbk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:428:1" rel="noopener">Puradelta Lestari (DMAS IJ)</a> Industrial revenue surged 218% YoY to Rp1,744 Bn in 1H26, driven by data-center transactions that reached Rp1,676.6 Bn, or 93.6% of total sales.</li>
<li>Sojitz Corp.’s 25% ownership provides strategic context to GIIC’s positioning, while DMAS is becoming an indirect beneficiary of Indonesia’s data-center build-out. </li>
<li>We test, through a forensic examination of DMAS’s land, recurring-income and balance-sheet economics, whether the stock can still support more than 25% upside after the market’s data-center repricing.</li>
</ul>



Puradelta Lestari (DMAS IJ) Industrial revenue surged 218% YoY to Rp1,744 Bn in 1H26, driven by data-center transactions that reached Rp1,676.6 Bn, or 93.6% of total sales.
Sojitz Corp.’s 25% ownership provides strategic context to GIIC’s positioning, while DMAS is becoming an indirect beneficiary of Indonesia’s data-center build-out. 
We test, through a forensic examination of DMAS’s land, recurring-income and balance-sheet economics, whether the stock can still support more than 25% upside after the market’s data-center repricing.


DMAS IJ: The Opportunity Behind Sojitz Corp.’s Data Center Exposure in Indonesia

PT Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk is an Indonesian state-owned enterprise primarily engaged in coal mining activities, encompassing general surveying, exploration, exploitation, processing, refining, transportation, and trading of coal. The company also operates steam-fired power plants, manages special coal dock facilities, and provides services such as briquette processing, mining services, palm plantation and processing, and health services. It was founded in 1919 with the initiation of coal mining by the Dutch Colonial Government and is headquartered in Tanjung Enim, South Sumatra, Indonesia.

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<li>Indonesian thermal coal prices are trending higher, creating a constructive cyclical backdrop for domestic coal producers: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pt-indo-tambangraya-megah-tbk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15891:1" rel="noopener">Indo Tambangraya Megah (ITMG IJ)</a> &amp; <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pt-bukit-asam-persero-tbk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1189:1" rel="noopener">Bukit Asam (PTBA IJ)</a> </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pt-indo-tambangraya-megah-tbk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15891:1" rel="noopener">Indo Tambangraya Megah (ITMG IJ)</a> combines the lowest valuation with substantial net cash, while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pt-bukit-asam-persero-tbk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1189:1" rel="noopener">Bukit Asam (PTBA IJ)</a>  combines stronger observed cash conversion with deeper logistics and resource-duration advantages.</li>
<li>We test, through a forensic examination of business economics and a value-investing lens, which company, if either, can offer more than 25% upside from current prices.</li>
</ul>


Indonesian thermal coal prices are trending higher, creating a constructive cyclical backdrop for domestic coal producers: Indo Tambangraya Megah (ITMG IJ) &amp; Bukit Asam (PTBA IJ) 

Indo Tambangraya Megah (ITMG IJ) combines the lowest valuation with substantial net cash, while Bukit Asam (PTBA IJ)  combines stronger observed cash conversion with deeper logistics and resource-duration advantages.
We test, through a forensic examination of business economics and a value-investing lens, which company, if either, can offer more than 25% upside from current prices.


ITMG Vs PTBA: The Cheapest Way to Indonesian Coal Exposure

Elnusa is an Indonesian oil and gas services company providing integrated solutions across three main segments: Upstream Services, Energy Distribution & Logistics Services, and Oil & Gas Support Services. Its services include geophysical and seismic data acquisition, drilling, oilfield services, as well as the storage, trading, distribution, and marketing of oil and gas products. The company was established in 1969 and is headquartered in Jakarta, Indonesia.

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<li>D&amp;L is ELSA's established earnings engine, contributing the largest share of Group profit in every primary-verified year from FY2022–FY2025, including 62.2% in FY2025, despite meaningful volatility in the other segments.</li>
<li>1H2026 confirms acceleration: D&amp;L revenue grew 26.6%, operating profit 50.2%, and segment net profit 54.4%, with half of operating-profit growth driven by revenue/volume and half by margin expansion in tandem.</li>
<li>Our Base Case requires no Upstream recovery and values ELSA at Rp934/share, implying 28.8% upside from Rp725 on a modest 7.5x P/E multiple, without credit for seismic conversion or recovery.</li>
</ul>


D&amp;L is ELSA's established earnings engine, contributing the largest share of Group profit in every primary-verified year from FY2022–FY2025, including 62.2% in FY2025, despite meaningful volatility in the other segments.
1H2026 confirms acceleration: D&amp;L revenue grew 26.6%, operating profit 50.2%, and segment net profit 54.4%, with half of operating-profit growth driven by revenue/volume and half by margin expansion in tandem.
Our Base Case requires no Upstream recovery and values ELSA at Rp934/share, implying 28.8% upside from Rp725 on a modest 7.5x P/E multiple, without credit for seismic conversion or recovery.


ELSA IJ - What If Elnusa Does Not Need an Upstream Recovery?

Buy-side investment professional focused on listed equities, combining bottom-up fundamental analysis with macroeconomic and capital allocation perspectives. I focus on intrinsic value, valuation, catalysts, downside risk, and the gap between fundamentals and market expectations, with the objective of identifying mispriced opportunities and translating research into disciplined investment decisions. 15+ years of experience across Indonesia’s Ministry of Finance, private investment, and independent research.

Defriansyah Has
Indonesian Equities | Buy-Side Investment Research

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