Senior Credit Analyst - Emerging Markets, EM Spreads

Leandro Gubler

Senior Credit Analyst - Emerging Markets

EM Spreads

Credit

Telecom Argentina SA provides telecommunications services including local, long-distance and international service in Argentina.  The Company, through its subsidiaries, also provides cellular telecommunications services and offers paging services.

<ul>
<li>We upgrade Telecom Argentina to Overweight as the TMA acquisition strengthens its market position, supports operating momentum, and benefits from reduced political risk and improving macro stability.</li>
<li>Regulatory uncertainty remains meaningful, and we think clearer visibility on the Telefónica approval process and integration timeline will be critical for value realization and credit performance.</li>
<li>• We see more value in the TEOAR 2031s given their lower duration, attractive relative spreads versus the EM B Index and peers, and supportive operating trends despite weak liquidity.</li>
</ul>


We upgrade Telecom Argentina to Overweight as the TMA acquisition strengthens its market position, supports operating momentum, and benefits from reduced political risk and improving macro stability.
Regulatory uncertainty remains meaningful, and we think clearer visibility on the Telefónica approval process and integration timeline will be critical for value realization and credit performance.
• We see more value in the TEOAR 2031s given their lower duration, attractive relative spreads versus the EM B Index and peers, and supportive operating trends despite weak liquidity.


Telecom 3Q25: Stronger Margins and a More Constructive Outlook

Gerdau S.A. provides steel-related products and services worldwide. The company operates through Brazil Operations, North America Operations, South America Operations, and Special Steel Operations. It offers semi-finished products, such as billets, blooms, and slabs; common long rolled products, including rebars, merchant bars, and profiles that are used by the construction and manufacturing industries; and drawn products consisting of barbed and barbless fence wire, galvanized wire, fences, concrete reinforcing wire mesh, nails, and clamps, as well as mines and produces iron ore. It also produces special steel products for use in auto parts, light and heavy vehicles, and agricultural machinery, as well as oil and gas, wind energy, machinery and equipment, mining and rail, and others markets. In addition, it provides Flat Products, such as hot rolled coils and heavy plates; and resells flat steel products. The company sells its products through independent distributors, direct sales from the mills, and its retail network. The company was founded in 1901 and is based in Porto Alegre, Brazil. Gerdau S.A. is a subsidiary of Metalurgica Gerdau S.A.

<ul>
<li>Persistent pricing pressure in Brazil limits margin recovery, while reduced future investments highlight challenges; stronger trade-defense measures will be needed to restore competitiveness.</li>
<li>North America remains Gerdau’s key earnings driver, supported by tariffs, healthy construction demand, and a resilient balance sheet that underpins credit strength.</li>
<li>We maintain Neutral, seeing limited spread-compression potential; we find greater value in the 2044s for their yield pickup and see overall valuations close to fair value across the curve.</li>
</ul>


Persistent pricing pressure in Brazil limits margin recovery, while reduced future investments highlight challenges; stronger trade-defense measures will be needed to restore competitiveness.
North America remains Gerdau’s key earnings driver, supported by tariffs, healthy construction demand, and a resilient balance sheet that underpins credit strength.
We maintain Neutral, seeing limited spread-compression potential; we find greater value in the 2044s for their yield pickup and see overall valuations close to fair value across the curve.


Gerdau 3Q25: North America Drives Earnings as Brazil Margins Compress

Companhia Siderurgica Nacional S.A. (CSN) manufactures iron and steel in Brazil. The Company operates mines, an integrated steel mill, service centers, ports, and railroads.  CSN manufactures and distributes hot-rolled, cold-rolled, and galvanized steel products to the automobile, auto parts, civil construction, electrical equipment, and packaging industries.

<ul>
<li>We maintain Overweight on the 2031s and 2032s for their attractive carry, meaningful spread pickup versus LatAm BB peers, and stronger downside protection at current discounted prices.</li>
<li>We think credit metrics will remain stable, supported by strong liquidity covering maturities through 2027, easier-to-roll bank debt, and expected EBITDA improvement from recovering steel and resilient mining.</li>
<li>We see potential spread compression from recovering steel prices, protectionist measures, asset-sale-driven deleveraging, and solid operating assets, reinforcing the bonds’ attractive relative value at current wide levels.</li>
</ul>


We maintain Overweight on the 2031s and 2032s for their attractive carry, meaningful spread pickup versus LatAm BB peers, and stronger downside protection at current discounted prices.
We think credit metrics will remain stable, supported by strong liquidity covering maturities through 2027, easier-to-roll bank debt, and expected EBITDA improvement from recovering steel and resilient mining.
We see potential spread compression from recovering steel prices, protectionist measures, asset-sale-driven deleveraging, and solid operating assets, reinforcing the bonds’ attractive relative value at current wide levels.


CSN 3Q25: Mining Strength Offsets Steel Weakness

Braskem S.A. produces petrochemicals and generates electricity.  The Company produces ethylene, propylene, benzene, toluene, xylenes, butadiene, butene, isoprene, dicyclopentediene, MTBE, caprolactam, ammonium sulfate, cyclohexene, polyethylene theraphtalat, polyethylene, and polyvinyl chloride (PVC).

<ul>
<li>Braskem’s Overweight stance is supported by its strategic relevance and government links, with distressed bond prices already reflecting substantial downside risk.</li>
<li>We find better value in lower-priced bonds, especially the 2030 notes yielding 32.0% for a 3.0-year duration, while we see elevated risk in the 2081 hybrids.</li>
<li>Near-Term outcomes hinge on liquidity solutions, policy relief, and January coupon clarity, though recent developments and potential secured financing improve the probability of an alternative resolution.</li>
</ul>


Braskem’s Overweight stance is supported by its strategic relevance and government links, with distressed bond prices already reflecting substantial downside risk.
We find better value in lower-priced bonds, especially the 2030 notes yielding 32.0% for a 3.0-year duration, while we see elevated risk in the 2081 hybrids.
Near-Term outcomes hinge on liquidity solutions, policy relief, and January coupon clarity, though recent developments and potential secured financing improve the probability of an alternative resolution.


Braskem 3Q25: Liquidity Strain Deepens as Bonds Remain in Distressed Territory

YPF Sociedad Anonima is involved in the exploration, development and production of crude oil, natural gas and liquefied petroleum gas. The Company also refines, markets, and distributes oil alongside its derivatives YPF generates nearly all of its revenue inside Argentina, and has headquarters in Buenos Aires, Argentina.

<ul>
<li>We maintain our Overweight on YPF, supported by lower lifting costs, mature-field divestments, and a strategic shift toward higher-margin unconventional production and key midstream and export projects.</li>
<li>Improving macro conditions, stronger sovereign credit prospects, and reduced political risk post-elections should support investment, market access, and YPF’s medium-term credit profile.</li>
<li>At current spreads, we find the 2029s and 2031s most attractive, offering compelling yields with limited duration risk and trading wide to peers despite tighter historical averages.</li>
</ul>


We maintain our Overweight on YPF, supported by lower lifting costs, mature-field divestments, and a strategic shift toward higher-margin unconventional production and key midstream and export projects.
Improving macro conditions, stronger sovereign credit prospects, and reduced political risk post-elections should support investment, market access, and YPF’s medium-term credit profile.
At current spreads, we find the 2029s and 2031s most attractive, offering compelling yields with limited duration risk and trading wide to peers despite tighter historical averages.


YPF 3Q25: Strong Operating Results as Shale Expansion Reduces Cost Base

EM Spreads is an independent credit research service specializing in Emerging Markets, primarily focusing on Latin American issuers.

Leandro Gubler
Senior Credit Analyst - Emerging Markets
• EM Spreads

Telecom 3Q25: Stronger Margins and a More Constructive Outlook

Telecom Argentina’s TMA acquisition, improving fundamentals, and compelling relative value create a timely opportunity for investors seeking yield...

Leandro Gubler

Gerdau 3Q25: North America Drives Earnings as Brazil Margins Compress

Persistent pricing pressure in Brazil hampers margin recovery, while North America drives Gerdau's earnings; trade-defense measures are crucial...

Leandro Gubler

CSN 3Q25: Mining Strength Offsets Steel Weakness

Maintaining Overweight on 2031s and 2032s for their attractive carry, spread pickup vs LatAm BB peers, and downside protection at discounted prices.

Leandro Gubler

Braskem 3Q25: Liquidity Strain Deepens as Bonds Remain in Distressed Territory

Braskem’s strategic relevance and distressed bond levels support our Overweight view, with lower-priced notes offering better protection as...

Leandro Gubler

YPF 3Q25: Strong Operating Results as Shale Expansion Reduces Cost Base

Shale growth, lower lifting costs, and reduced political risk strengthen YPF’s credit story. A must-read for investors seeking value in short...

Leandro Gubler

Telecom 3Q25: Stronger Margins and a More Constructive Outlook

Telecom Argentina’s TMA acquisition, improving fundamentals, and compelling relative value create a timely opportunity for investors seeking yield...

Leandro Gubler

Gerdau 3Q25: North America Drives Earnings as Brazil Margins Compress

​Persistent pricing pressure in Brazil hampers margin recovery, while North America drives Gerdau's earnings; trade-defense measures are crucial...

Leandro Gubler

CSN 3Q25: Mining Strength Offsets Steel Weakness

​Maintaining Overweight on 2031s and 2032s for their attractive carry, spread pickup vs LatAm BB peers, and downside protection at discounted prices.

Leandro Gubler

Braskem 3Q25: Liquidity Strain Deepens as Bonds Remain in Distressed Territory

Braskem’s strategic relevance and distressed bond levels support our Overweight view, with lower-priced notes offering better protection as...

Leandro Gubler

YPF 3Q25: Strong Operating Results as Shale Expansion Reduces Cost Base

Shale growth, lower lifting costs, and reduced political risk strengthen YPF’s credit story. A must-read for investors seeking value in short...

Leandro Gubler

Persistent pricing pressure in Brazil hampers margin recovery, while North America drives Gerdau's earnings; trade-defense measures are crucial...

Maintaining Overweight on 2031s and 2032s for their attractive carry, spread pickup vs LatAm BB peers, and downside protection at discounted prices.