Chief Economist, Heteronomics

Phil Rush

Chief Economist

Heteronomics

Heteronomics represents a different kind of economics. We believe analysis should delve into the details of what is really going on, rather than using overly simplistic assumptions to quick-sell stories. Independence from myopic institutional pressures allows us to focus on the realities underlying your asset allocation decisions, without the conflicts of the old market structures. Heteronomics targets the themes driving UK asset prices, offering the benefits of depth, independence and ultimately price.

UK-centric macro research

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>The worst services PMIs thawed in November, broadening growth even as averages held steady. Activity in the US services ISM has trended up to exceed the PMI data now.</li><li>A slight fading of stagflationary pressures in the latest US surveys probably balances out in the Fed’s policy trade-off. We still fear that it is easing excessively.</li><li>Rising unemployment rates in the US and UK are concerns not experienced in most of the world. This theme feeds their recent divergence from the global surprise tendency.</li></ul>

The worst services PMIs thawed in November, broadening growth even as averages held steady. Activity in the US services ISM has trended up to exceed the PMI data now.A slight fading of stagflationary pressures in the latest US surveys probably balances out in the Fed’s policy trade-off. We still fear that it is easing excessively.Rising unemployment rates in the US and UK are concerns not experienced in most of the world. This theme feeds their recent divergence from the global surprise tendency.

<ul><li>A surprise rise in EA inflation to 2.2% in November meant October’s long-awaited dip was a false dawn for a disinflationary consensus exceeded by 0.4pp since June.</li><li>The accumulated extent and the increase in service inflation to 3.5% are concerning, but the latest news was narrowly concentrated in Greece, with other errors being minor.</li><li>Stronger underlying momentum into year-end is preventing the January base effects from driving it significantly below target. The ECB’s good place isn’t breaking dovishly.</li></ul>

A surprise rise in EA inflation to 2.2% in November meant October’s long-awaited dip was a false dawn for a disinflationary consensus exceeded by 0.4pp since June.The accumulated extent and the increase in service inflation to 3.5% are concerning, but the latest news was narrowly concentrated in Greece, with other errors being minor.Stronger underlying momentum into year-end is preventing the January base effects from driving it significantly below target. The ECB’s good place isn’t breaking dovishly.

Equity Capital Markets and Advisory Business, Auctus Advisors

Auctus Advisors

Equity Capital Markets and Advisory Business

Auctus Advisors is a specialist Equity Capital Markets and Advisory business with a focus in the Energy Sector. The partners have complementary skill sets, with decades of experience across Equity Capital Markets, Investment Banking and the Energy industry. We have worked at Société Générale, Canaccord Capital, BMO Capital Markets and Schlumberger. Most recently we have worked together for many years at GMP FirstEnergy. Auctus has been set up at the beginning of a new decade in which we see significant opportunities in the Energy space. Globally, demand for energy is at record levels and continues to grow. Conversely, investment in traditional energy sources has been severely constrained. We believe this imbalance creates opportunities for both companies and investors. Auctus provides Corporate Broking, Equity Research and Investment Banking services.

Equity Bottom-Up

ADX Energy Ltd. explores for oil and natural gas.  The Company operates onshore and offshore in Tunisia, offshore in Italy, and onshore in Australia.

<ul>
<li>ADX has increased its aggregated prospective gas resource estimates for its Sicily Channel permit from 103–369–772 bcf to 188–484–1,265 bcf (P90–P50–P10 cases).</li>
<li>The new mean prospective resource of 619 bcf reflects the increased upside potential for the permit.</li>
<li>Individual prospect sizes range between 37–111 bcf (P50 case), with four prospects each estimated at 60–68 bcf (P50).</li>
</ul>


ADX has increased its aggregated prospective gas resource estimates for its Sicily Channel permit from 103–369–772 bcf to 188–484–1,265 bcf (P90–P50–P10 cases).
The new mean prospective resource of 619 bcf reflects the increased upside potential for the permit.
Individual prospect sizes range between 37–111 bcf (P50 case), with four prospects each estimated at 60–68 bcf (P50).


ADX Energy (ASX: ADX): Resource Estimates Boost in Sicily

<ul><li>Volatile markets and policy guidance washed out, with pricing and forecasts little changed on the month.</li><li>Bailey is biased to ease, but the BoE is awakening to its inflation problem. It should cut less than dovishly priced.</li><li>Higher unemployment could move beyond a structural shift from policy to signal a less elevated neutral rate.</li></ul>

Volatile markets and policy guidance washed out, with pricing and forecasts little changed on the month.Bailey is biased to ease, but the BoE is awakening to its inflation problem. It should cut less than dovishly priced.Higher unemployment could move beyond a structural shift from policy to signal a less elevated neutral rate.

<ul><li>UK fiscal policy had an even smaller hole to fill than we expected, with the work to fill it in delayed until the election. There is no dovish pressure on the BoE from this.</li><li>European data releases were relatively resilient again, with household lending and business sentiment broadly increasing. National inflation surprises were offsetting.</li><li>Next week’s Euro area flash HICP is still tracking 2.1% in our forecast. Final PMI releases and the BoE’s decision maker panel survey results are our other release highlights.</li></ul>

UK fiscal policy had an even smaller hole to fill than we expected, with the work to fill it in delayed until the election. There is no dovish pressure on the BoE from this.European data releases were relatively resilient again, with household lending and business sentiment broadly increasing. National inflation surprises were offsetting.Next week’s Euro area flash HICP is still tracking 2.1% in our forecast. Final PMI releases and the BoE’s decision maker panel survey results are our other release highlights.

Austria
Insights on Austria

Activity Thaws Into Winter

The worst services PMIs thawed in November, broadening growth even as averages held steady. Activity in the US services ISM has trended up to...

Phil Rush

EA: False Dawn For Disinflation

A surprise rise in EA inflation to 2.2% in November meant October’s long-awaited dip was a false dawn for a disinflationary consensus exceeded by...

Phil Rush

ADX Energy (ASX: ADX): Resource Estimates Boost in Sicily

ADX has increased its aggregated prospective gas resource estimates for its Sicily Channel permit from 103–369–772 bcf to 188–484–1,265 bcf...

Auctus Advisors

HEM: Dec-25 Views & Challenges

Volatile markets and policy guidance washed out, with pricing and forecasts little changed on the month. Bailey is biased to ease, but the BoE is...

Phil Rush

HEW: Slow Shovels

UK fiscal policy had an even smaller hole to fill than we expected, with the work to fill it in delayed until the election. There is no dovish...

Phil Rush