Equity Long-Short

Mo Aziz

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>September Hormuz transits are the highest since February outside the MoU window, yet at 117 a week they are still roughly 85% below the pre-war norm.</li>
<li>The oil market is not getting safer, it is getting better at operating under insecurity ("<em>Lloyd’s List"</em>). Direct Gulf-to-India VLCC runs and Abu Dhabi-backed shuttles are adaptation, not resolution.</li>
<li>Three tankers were attacked on Wednesday and crude rose just 1.3%. Own the adapters, take profits on the rate spike, and treat reopening headlines as noise until liners return.</li>
</ul>


September Hormuz transits are the highest since February outside the MoU window, yet at 117 a week they are still roughly 85% below the pre-war norm.
The oil market is not getting safer, it is getting better at operating under insecurity ("Lloyd’s List"). Direct Gulf-to-India VLCC runs and Abu Dhabi-backed shuttles are adaptation, not resolution.
Three tankers were attacked on Wednesday and crude rose just 1.3%. Own the adapters, take profits on the rate spike, and treat reopening headlines as noise until liners return.


Strait of Hormuz: Oil Is Moving Again, but Nothing Is Fixed. Markets Have Got Better at Adapting

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Singapore's Dubai cracking margin turned negative on 9 September (–US$2.93) while the USGC LLS margin sits at US$53.18, the top of its five-year range.</li>
<li>Cause: Dubai crude now trades above Dated Brent. Asia carries the Hormuz scarcity in its feedstock; the Atlantic basin carries it only in its products.</li>
<li>Next: Asian run cuts, cheap Asian diesel dragged west, freight stays bid. The gap closes from the Singapore side, but only after the cuts, and only until the Strait reopens.</li>
</ul>


Singapore's Dubai cracking margin turned negative on 9 September (–US$2.93) while the USGC LLS margin sits at US$53.18, the top of its five-year range.
Cause: Dubai crude now trades above Dated Brent. Asia carries the Hormuz scarcity in its feedstock; the Atlantic basin carries it only in its products.
Next: Asian run cuts, cheap Asian diesel dragged west, freight stays bid. The gap closes from the Singapore side, but only after the cuts, and only until the Strait reopens.


Asia Pays the Hormuz Premium, America Banks the Crack

<ul>
<li>Shipping flows are returning to the Straits of Hormuz (SOH), but under Iranian oversight rather than a restoration of free navigation.  </li>
<li>The global system is adjusting pragmatically, signalling quiet acceptance of Iran as the gatekeeper of the SOH</li>
<li>Legally international but physically controlled, SOH is evolving into a managed chokepoint—not a neutral one</li>
</ul>


Shipping flows are returning to the Straits of Hormuz (SOH), but under Iranian oversight rather than a restoration of free navigation.  
The global system is adjusting pragmatically, signalling quiet acceptance of Iran as the gatekeeper of the SOH
Legally international but physically controlled, SOH is evolving into a managed chokepoint—not a neutral one


Strait of Hormuz: Markets Are Pricing Reopening, But the World Is Adapting to Iranian Control

Asia Real Estate News Tracker, Asia Real Estate Tracker

Asia Real Estate Tracker

Asia Real Estate News Tracker

Tracking developments across Asia's regional real estate markets

<ul><li>Arch Capital has sold its stake in a $500 million shopping mall located in Taiwan.</li><li>Singapore has initiated applications for the construction of new data centers totaling 200MW.</li><li>City Developments Limited (CDL) has purchased the Holiday Inn in Central London for $370 million.</li></ul>

Arch Capital has sold its stake in a $500 million shopping mall located in Taiwan.Singapore has initiated applications for the construction of new data centers totaling 200MW.City Developments Limited (CDL) has purchased the Holiday Inn in Central London for $370 million.

Asia Real Estate Tracker (04-Dec-2025): Arch Capital exits $500M stake in Taiwan mall.

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Bottom-Up

Orient Overseas (International) / Equity Bottom-Up

Orient Overseas (International) is an investment holding company primarily engaged in international container transport and logistics services, offering global containerized shipping and supply chain management. It also has interests in property investment and development. The company was incorporated in 1986 and is headquartered in Hong Kong.

<ul>
<li>Price momentum and volume growth both remained weak in September </li>
<li>Mideast ceasefire raises possibility of Suez Canal re-opening in 2026</li>
<li>Expect pricing to remain weak; Suez re-start would likely lead to losses</li>
</ul>


Price momentum and volume growth both remained weak in September 
Mideast ceasefire raises possibility of Suez Canal re-opening in 2026
Expect pricing to remain weak; Suez re-start would likely lead to losses


Monthly Container Shipping Tracker | Momentum, Volume Still Weak | Suez Restoration? (October 2025)

Opportunities and Impact of China's Reopening

China Reopening
Opportunities and Impact of China's Reopening

Strait of Hormuz: Oil Is Moving Again, but Nothing Is Fixed. Markets Have Got Better at Adapting

Gulf exports are the best since the war began, yet transits are ~85% below normal and three tankers were hit on Wednesday. Own the adapters, fade...

Mo Aziz

Asia Pays the Hormuz Premium, America Banks the Crack

Dubai now trades above Brent. Singapore refining margins turned negative while US Gulf margins hit record highs. Long Atlantic cracks, short Asian...

Mo Aziz

Strait of Hormuz: Markets Are Pricing Reopening, But the World Is Adapting to Iranian Control

Shipping flows in the Straits of Hormuz are now under Iranian oversight, signaling a shift towards Iran as the gatekeeper of the region rather...

Mo Aziz

Asia Real Estate Tracker (04-Dec-2025): Arch Capital exits $500M stake in Taiwan mall.

Arch Capital has sold its $500 million Taiwan mall investment, while Singapore opens applications for 200MW of new data centers, and CDL buys...

Asia Real Estate Tracker

Monthly Container Shipping Tracker | Momentum, Volume Still Weak | Suez Restoration? (October 2025)

Price momentum and North American inbound demand both remained weak in September, and we believe a new ceasefire raises the likelihood of a Suez...

Tracking Traffic

Strait of Hormuz: Oil Is Moving Again, but Nothing Is Fixed. Markets Have Got Better at Adapting

Gulf exports are the best since the war began, yet transits are ~85% below normal and three tankers were hit on Wednesday. Own the adapters, fade...

Mo Aziz

Asia Pays the Hormuz Premium, America Banks the Crack

Dubai now trades above Brent. Singapore refining margins turned negative while US Gulf margins hit record highs. Long Atlantic cracks, short Asian...

Mo Aziz

Strait of Hormuz: Markets Are Pricing Reopening, But the World Is Adapting to Iranian Control

​Shipping flows in the Straits of Hormuz are now under Iranian oversight, signaling a shift towards Iran as the gatekeeper of the region rather...

Mo Aziz

Asia Real Estate Tracker (04-Dec-2025): Arch Capital exits $500M stake in Taiwan mall.

Arch Capital has sold its $500 million Taiwan mall investment, while Singapore opens applications for 200MW of new data centers, and CDL buys...

Asia Real Estate Tracker

Monthly Container Shipping Tracker | Momentum, Volume Still Weak | Suez Restoration? (October 2025)

Price momentum and North American inbound demand both remained weak in September, and we believe a new ceasefire raises the likelihood of a Suez...

Tracking Traffic

Shipping flows in the Straits of Hormuz are now under Iranian oversight, signaling a shift towards Iran as the gatekeeper of the region rather...