Fundamental Analyses, Contrarian Cashflows

Contrarian Cashflows

Fundamental Analyses

The purpose of Contrarian Cashflows is to document my investment research and share it with everyone who is interested in value investing. My long term aspiration for Contrarian Cashflows is to become a platform for professional investors and serious amateurs where they can get inspiration and discuss investing-related topics.
I plan to publish one company deep dive per month that is guided by my investment approach. All information I use for my write-ups is publicly available and most of the time directly sourced from public filings issued by the respective companies. To guarantee maximum transparency, for every post I provide a list of all used sources in the resources section.
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Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>A lot of ink has been spilled on the pros and cons of investing in “private” assets.</li><li>With the recent introduction of private equity investments for retail investors in my home country of Germany, I’ve been repeatedly approached by friends and family about my opinion on these products.</li><li>In Germany, two neo-brokers, LIQID and Trade Republic, recently introduced private equity (PE) investments for retail investors starting from as little as €1 per trade (in the case of Trade Republic), while marketing returns between 12% and 14% annually with low volatility.</li></ul>

A lot of ink has been spilled on the pros and cons of investing in “private” assets.With the recent introduction of private equity investments for retail investors in my home country of Germany, I’ve been repeatedly approached by friends and family about my opinion on these products.In Germany, two neo-brokers, LIQID and Trade Republic, recently introduced private equity (PE) investments for retail investors starting from as little as €1 per trade (in the case of Trade Republic), while marketing returns between 12% and 14% annually with low volatility.

RW-11-25: Should I Invest in Private Equity?

Articles from Caixin Global, Caixin Global

Caixin Global

Articles from Caixin Global

Caixin is a media group dedicated to providing financial and business news through periodicals, online content, mobile apps, conferences, books and TV/video programs. Caixin aims to blaze a trail that helps traditional media prosper in the new media age through integrated multimedia platforms.

News from Caixin

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>In Depth: Shanghai Slaps $7 Million Record Fines on Nine Firms for Mazhou Island</li><li>China Launches New Probe Into Aggressive Private Conglomerate</li><li>China Exposes Massive Loan Kickback in Finance Graft Crackdown</li></ul>

In Depth: Shanghai Slaps $7 Million Record Fines on Nine Firms for Mazhou IslandChina Launches New Probe Into Aggressive Private ConglomerateChina Exposes Massive Loan Kickback in Finance Graft Crackdown

CX Daily: Shanghai Fines Nine Firms $7M for Mazhou Island Construction Waste Dumping  

Senior Credit Analyst, Lucror Analytics

Leonard Law, CFA

Senior Credit Analyst

High Yield Experts

Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics is a leading credit and ESG research specialist and a provider of technology solutions for differentiated fixed income strategies. Our roots are in bottom-up fundamental credit analysis with a specialization in high yield corporate credits from Europe, Asia and Latin America. We are one of few research specialists integrating ESG considerations with fundamental credit research through a dedicated ESG platform. Our ESG assessment covers five key criteria: Disclosure, E,S, & G Pillars, Controversies, ESG Impact on Credit and ESG Momentum.

Recognizing the importance and value-add of Factor Investing in fixed income, Lucror developed the Smart Quant Navigator (SQN), an intuitive platform that helps clients devise and implement factor-based strategies ranging from pure quant to active fundamental, with integrated ESG.

Our company has been at the forefront of developments in the fixed income markets, identifying opportunities and consistently delivering new products and value-adding solutions to clients. Lucror has close relationships with the largest and most reputable asset managers, family offices, hedge funds, investment and wealth managers globally.

Credit

Greentown China Holdings Ltd. develops real estate.  The Company builds residential villas, low-rise apartment buildings, and high-rise apartment buildings for middle and high-income people.

<ul>
<li>In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Greentown China</li>
<li>UST yields rose 2-4 bps yesterday, led by the front end, following the strong jobless claims data. The yield on the 2Y UST jumped 4 bps to 3.52%, while the yield on the 10Y UST climbed 3 bps to 4.10%. Fed-dated OIS were steady, and continued to price in a 92% probability of a rate cut next Wednesday.</li>
<li>Equities edged up slightly towards record high levels. The S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq rose 0.1% and 0.2% to 6,857 and 23,505, respectively.</li>
</ul>


In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Greentown China
UST yields rose 2-4 bps yesterday, led by the front end, following the strong jobless claims data. The yield on the 2Y UST jumped 4 bps to 3.52%, while the yield on the 10Y UST climbed 3 bps to 4.10%. Fed-dated OIS were steady, and continued to price in a 92% probability of a rate cut next Wednesday.
Equities edged up slightly towards record high levels. The S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq rose 0.1% and 0.2% to 6,857 and 23,505, respectively.


Chief Economist, Aletheia Capital

Dr. Jim Walker

Chief Economist

Independent and original Asian investment research

Aletheia Capital

Aletheia Capital (HK) Ltd. (previously known as Asianomics) combines the extensive knowledge of its experienced team with technology and regulatory changes to disrupt Global Markets business in Asia. The firm is completely independent with no conflicts of interest either on Investment Banking advisory or Capital Markets execution.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li data-start="0" data-end="156">United States shows deepening slowdown with weak ISM manufacturing, falling employment, and declining private payrolls, signaling rising recession risk.</li><li data-start="157" data-end="277">India and China exhibit relatively constructive economic prospects, contrasting with softness in advanced economies.</li><li data-start="278" data-end="428" data-is-last-node="">Asian indicators are mixed, with Indonesia struggling on trade and Hong Kong retail sales recovering gradually but remaining below pre-COVID levels.</li></ul>

United States shows deepening slowdown with weak ISM manufacturing, falling employment, and declining private payrolls, signaling rising recession risk.India and China exhibit relatively constructive economic prospects, contrasting with softness in advanced economies.Asian indicators are mixed, with Indonesia struggling on trade and Hong Kong retail sales recovering gradually but remaining below pre-COVID levels.

Walker’s Weekly: Dr. Jim's Summary of Key Global Macro Developments - 5 Dec 2025

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

Dongfeng Motor Group Company Limited, through joint ventures, designs, manufactures, and markets diesel engines, light trucks, automobiles, castings, and related spare parts.

<ul>
<li>Back on the 22nd August 2025, SOE-backed <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dongfeng-motor-group-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:910:1" rel="noopener">Dongfeng Motor (489 HK)</a> announced a privatisation; together with a concurrent listing of its EV arm, VOYAH. The two proposals are interconditional.</li>
<li>In its October <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/app/sehk/2025/107757/documents/sehk25100202720.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">application proof</a>, VOYAH turned a profit in 7M25.  The market was implying a price-to-trailing-sales of 1.5x for VOYAH, versus the basket average of 2.1x. It's now ~1.2x.</li>
<li>Key PRC reg approvals (Mofcom/NDRC/SAFE) remain outstanding. Meanwhile, a basket of peers are down 21% since the dual proposals were announced. And their average price-to-trailing-sales are down to 1.7x. </li>
</ul>


Back on the 22nd August 2025, SOE-backed Dongfeng Motor (489 HK) announced a privatisation; together with a concurrent listing of its EV arm, VOYAH. The two proposals are interconditional.
In its October application proof, VOYAH turned a profit in 7M25.  The market was implying a price-to-trailing-sales of 1.5x for VOYAH, versus the basket average of 2.1x. It's now ~1.2x.
Key PRC reg approvals (Mofcom/NDRC/SAFE) remain outstanding. Meanwhile, a basket of peers are down 21% since the dual proposals were announced. And their average price-to-trailing-sales are down to 1.7x. 


Dongfeng (489 HK): Revisiting VOYAH's Spin-Off Valuation

China
Insights on China

RW-11-25: Should I Invest in Private Equity?

A lot of ink has been spilled on the pros and cons of investing in “private” assets. With the recent introduction of private equity investments...

Contrarian Cashflows

CX Daily: Shanghai Fines Nine Firms $7M for Mazhou Island Construction Waste Dumping

TOP STORY In Depth: Shanghai Slaps $7 Million Record Fines on Nine Firms for Mazhou Island Construction Waste Dumping By the time the cargo ships...

Caixin Global

Lucror Analytics - Morning Views Asia

In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Greentown China UST yields rose 2-4 bps...

Lucror Analytics

Walker’s Weekly: Dr. Jim's Summary of Key Global Macro Developments - 5 Dec 2025

United States shows deepening slowdown with weak ISM manufacturing, falling employment, and declining private payrolls, signaling rising...

Dr. Jim Walker

Dongfeng (489 HK): Revisiting VOYAH's Spin-Off Valuation

There's been a lot of enthusiasm for HK spin-offs of late, such as Zijin Mining and MINISO. I'm not convinced Dongfeng Motor deserves similar...

David Blennerhassett