Chief Economist, Heteronomics

Phil Rush

Chief Economist

Heteronomics

Heteronomics represents a different kind of economics. We believe analysis should delve into the details of what is really going on, rather than using overly simplistic assumptions to quick-sell stories. Independence from myopic institutional pressures allows us to focus on the realities underlying your asset allocation decisions, without the conflicts of the old market structures. Heteronomics targets the themes driving UK asset prices, offering the benefits of depth, independence and ultimately price.

UK-centric macro research

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Central bank decisions came as expected with cuts or cautious progress towards them, but the Bank of England's unexpected guidance disrupted predictions and market pricing. An August cut is now anticipated, though there are concerns it could be a mistake.</li><li>Next week, macro data is expected to drive the market more, with US inflation data due on Wednesday, UK labour market data on Tuesday, and ongoing updates on HICP, GDP, and employment around the Euro Area.</li><li>The only notable rate decision expected is from the Philippines.</li></ul>

Central bank decisions came as expected with cuts or cautious progress towards them, but the Bank of England's unexpected guidance disrupted predictions and market pricing. An August cut is now anticipated, though there are concerns it could be a mistake.Next week, macro data is expected to drive the market more, with US inflation data due on Wednesday, UK labour market data on Tuesday, and ongoing updates on HICP, GDP, and employment around the Euro Area.The only notable rate decision expected is from the Philippines.

Independent Economist, Forecaster and Strategist

Thomas Lam

<ul>
<li>The anomalous behavior of the unemployment rate bears further monitoring</li>
<li>The ongoing labor market rebalancing could prospectively result in a higher unemployment rate with a lag</li>
<li>While the April survey data implies potentially soggy headline growth in 2Q 2024, my weekly recession odds indicator remains relatively benign for now </li>
</ul>


The anomalous behavior of the unemployment rate bears further monitoring
The ongoing labor market rebalancing could prospectively result in a higher unemployment rate with a lag
While the April survey data implies potentially soggy headline growth in 2Q 2024, my weekly recession odds indicator remains relatively benign for now 


<ul><li>Rate hikes are unlikely to resume unless forthcoming cuts prove premature. Cutting outside recessionary regimes has historically been prone to reversals to higher peaks.</li><li>1998’s cuts followed a shock that failed to prove recessionary. Fed cuts in 1967 sowed the seeds of a severe inflation problem. Both cutting cycles were more than reversed.</li><li>Independent ECB hikes in 2008 and 2012 were rapidly proven policy mistakes. The BoE’s single 2005 cut was also wrong. Hopes that 2024 is benignly like 1989 may be misplaced.</li></ul><p></p>

Rate hikes are unlikely to resume unless forthcoming cuts prove premature. Cutting outside recessionary regimes has historically been prone to reversals to higher peaks.1998’s cuts followed a shock that failed to prove recessionary. Fed cuts in 1967 sowed the seeds of a severe inflation problem. Both cutting cycles were more than reversed.Independent ECB hikes in 2008 and 2012 were rapidly proven policy mistakes. The BoE’s single 2005 cut was also wrong. Hopes that 2024 is benignly like 1989 may be misplaced.

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

Equity Bottom-Up

TotalEnergies SE operates as an energy company. The Company produces, transports, and supplies crude oil, natural gas, and low carbon electricity, as well as refines petrochemical products. TotalEnergies owns and manages gasoline filling stations worldwide.

<ul><li>TotalEnergies, in its Q1 2024, demonstrated firm progress in implementing its two-pillar strategy.</li><li>First, oil and gas production, most notably in Liquid Natural Gas (LNG), aims to responsibly address rising demand through ongoing development.</li><li>Second, investments in integrated power for the future hold the promise of achieving net cash positive status by 2028.</li></ul>

TotalEnergies, in its Q1 2024, demonstrated firm progress in implementing its two-pillar strategy.First, oil and gas production, most notably in Liquid Natural Gas (LNG), aims to responsibly address rising demand through ongoing development.Second, investments in integrated power for the future hold the promise of achieving net cash positive status by 2028.

TotalEnergies SE: Can They Capitalize On The LNG Market Opportunities in Asia & The US? - Major Drivers

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Q1 Performance Analysis for active Global EM funds.  Country/Sector/Stock Positioning relative to benchmark for Global funds</li>
<li>Spotlight on Indonesia activity among Asia Ex-Japan investors.  Sector Dispersion in USA funds</li>
<li>Extreme Stock Positioning in UK Small/Midcap funds. Ownership Trends in the Financials sector among MSCI China funds.</li>
</ul>


Q1 Performance Analysis for active Global EM funds.  Country/Sector/Stock Positioning relative to benchmark for Global funds
Spotlight on Indonesia activity among Asia Ex-Japan investors.  Sector Dispersion in USA funds
Extreme Stock Positioning in UK Small/Midcap funds. Ownership Trends in the Financials sector among MSCI China funds.


France
Insights on France

HEW: BoE Lunges Hopefully After ECB

Central bank decisions came as expected with cuts or cautious progress towards them, but the Bank of England's unexpected guidance disrupted...

Phil Rush

The Art and Science of Data Dependence

The latest data tug-of-war, though relatively murky and uneven, implies emerging hints of less forward momentum with patches of softness.

Thomas Lam

Policy Rate Reversal Warnings

Rate hikes are unlikely to resume unless forthcoming cuts prove premature. Cutting outside recessionary regimes has historically been prone to...

Phil Rush

TotalEnergies SE: Can They Capitalize On The LNG Market Opportunities in Asia & The US? - Major Drivers

TotalEnergies, in its Q1 2024, demonstrated firm progress in implementing its two-pillar strategy. First, oil and gas production, most notably in...

Baptista Research

New Release: Fund Positioning Chart Pack

The latest trends in active equity fund positioning, from Indonesian activity among Asia Ex-Japan funds to sector dispersion among active US funds.

Steven Holden