Chief Economist, Heteronomics

Phil Rush

Chief Economist

Heteronomics

Heteronomics represents a different kind of economics. We believe analysis should delve into the details of what is really going on, rather than using overly simplistic assumptions to quick-sell stories. Independence from myopic institutional pressures allows us to focus on the realities underlying your asset allocation decisions, without the conflicts of the old market structures. Heteronomics targets the themes driving UK asset prices, offering the benefits of depth, independence and ultimately price.

UK-centric macro research

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>EA inflation jumped by 51bp to 3.76%, exceeding our relatively high forecast as the trend rise in pressures extended even further as the energy shock intensified.</li>
<li>Italy was the source of most upside news in an otherwise balanced set of national surprises. Higher services inflation at 3.22% drove the core rate up to 2.5%.</li>
<li>A 4% year-end peak has an upside-risk skew amid low gas inventories, encouraging the ECB to hike again in December. Its activism should ease a return to target in 2027.</li>
</ul>


EA inflation jumped by 51bp to 3.76%, exceeding our relatively high forecast as the trend rise in pressures extended even further as the energy shock intensified.
Italy was the source of most upside news in an otherwise balanced set of national surprises. Higher services inflation at 3.22% drove the core rate up to 2.5%.
A 4% year-end peak has an upside-risk skew amid low gas inventories, encouraging the ECB to hike again in December. Its activism should ease a return to target in 2027.


External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Topline Securities

Topline Securities

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Topline Securities is one of the fastest growing brokerage houses in Pakistan. It has strong equity brokerage, economic / equity research, mutual fund distribution, commodity trading and corporate finance & advisory functions. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

<ul><li>Pakistan's Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation for Sep 2026 clocked in at 10.26% YoY and 1.27% MoM, largely in line with Bloomberg survey estimates of 10.2% but slightly lower than our expectations of 10.45% YoY.</li><li>On YoY basis, the Sep 2026 inflation is up largely due to 27.43% growth in transport, 13.54% in Communication segment and 12.39% in Housing, Water, Electricity and Gas Segment.</li><li>We maintain our FY27 inflation forecast in range of 8.5-9.0%.</li></ul>

Pakistan's Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation for Sep 2026 clocked in at 10.26% YoY and 1.27% MoM, largely in line with Bloomberg survey estimates of 10.2% but slightly lower than our expectations of 10.45% YoY.On YoY basis, the Sep 2026 inflation is up largely due to 27.43% growth in transport, 13.54% in Communication segment and 12.39% in Housing, Water, Electricity and Gas Segment.We maintain our FY27 inflation forecast in range of 8.5-9.0%.

Pakistan Economy - Sep 2026 Inflation Clocked in at 10.26% YoY; In Line With Market Expectations

Global Economist, DeSaque Macro Research

Said Desaque

Global Economist

Delivering Global Macro Investment Insights

DeSaque Macro Research

DeSaque Macro Research Limited was formed by Said DeSaque in April 2012 with the view to delivering global macro investment insights aimed at providing new ideas to clients.

Said DeSaque has over 26 years of experience working as a professional economist in financial services. Prior to establishing DeSaque Macro Research, Said held positions as Senior Economist at Robert W Baird and William Blair. He began his career as a graduate at PaineWebber in 1986, where he eventually became Head of the London Economics Department.

Said takes a very keen interest in international relations, along with their implications for economic development. His research interests include the economic transformation of China and its implications for global capital markets, particularly in the United States. He is a member of Chatham House in London.

The US economy and capital markets have historically been Said’s main focus of attention. He frequently presents his views to institutional investors in diverse geographic locations. In recent years, Said has also been carefully monitoring economic developments in Asia, particularly China and Japan.

<ul>
<li>The world economy no longer enjoys the benefits of low inflation. US equity investors are embracing the eventual return of low inflation due to the rollout of artificial intelligence.</li>
<li>Geopolitics has contributed to a pivot away from globalisation with inflationary implications via supply chain recalibration. Deteriorating fiscal positions, partly due to higher defence commitments, are also producing inflationary pressures. </li>
<li>The media has concentrated on the Fed's role in contributing to higher US interest rates, but the strong economy has also played a role due to rising corporate credit demand.</li>
</ul>


The world economy no longer enjoys the benefits of low inflation. US equity investors are embracing the eventual return of low inflation due to the rollout of artificial intelligence.
Geopolitics has contributed to a pivot away from globalisation with inflationary implications via supply chain recalibration. Deteriorating fiscal positions, partly due to higher defence commitments, are also producing inflationary pressures. 
The media has concentrated on the Fed's role in contributing to higher US interest rates, but the strong economy has also played a role due to rising corporate credit demand.


Investors Back AI to Produce Disinflation, but Geopolitics Increasingly Determine Pipeline Pressures

<ul><li>Pakistan’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) for Sep 2026 is expected to clock in at 10.25-10.75% YoY vs. 11.15% YoY in Aug 2026 and 5.61% in Sep 2025.</li><li>On a MoM basis, inflation is projected at 1.30%, primarily driven by a 6.5% MoM growth in fuel prices and 1.78% increase in the Housing, Water, Electricity &amp; Gas segment.</li><li>With inflation expectations of 10.25–10.75% for Sep 2026, real rates are likely to clock in at 75–125bps, lower than Pakistan’s historic average of 200–300bps.</li></ul>

Pakistan’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) for Sep 2026 is expected to clock in at 10.25-10.75% YoY vs. 11.15% YoY in Aug 2026 and 5.61% in Sep 2025.On a MoM basis, inflation is projected at 1.30%, primarily driven by a 6.5% MoM growth in fuel prices and 1.78% increase in the Housing, Water, Electricity &amp; Gas segment.With inflation expectations of 10.25–10.75% for Sep 2026, real rates are likely to clock in at 75–125bps, lower than Pakistan’s historic average of 200–300bps.

Pakistan Economy - Inflation Expected to Clock in at 10.25%-10.75% in Sep 2026; Led by Fuel and Electricity Prices

Founder, Market Thinker

Mark Tinker

Founder

Market Thinker

Mark Tinker has over 35 years experience as an investor, market strategist and economist. Having spent more than 20 years as a sell side strategist and being top rated on numerous occasions and surveys he moved to investment management in 2006 to run global equity portfolios in London and subsequently moved to Hong Kong in 2013 to help establish an Investment Management business for a top 20 international asset manager. He first started writing investment weeklies for his employers in 1989, developing a style characterised under the title Market Thinking and has been a regular commentator and presenter on CNBC, Bloomberg and other business channels, where his approach of rationalising market behaviour rather than making short term predictions on high frequency market data provides a welcome balance to his client audience.

Making Sense of the Narrative

<ul><li>The standard Central Bank response to higher inflation is to raise interest rates, but the impact on an economy will depend on a) what is causing the inflation and b) the nature of the balance sheets involved.</li><li>Simply following the Fed risks bad outcomes for Europe and the rest of the Anglo Saxon Markets.</li><li>Inflation at the moment is largely cost push, not demand pull, certainly not outside of the US.</li></ul>

The standard Central Bank response to higher inflation is to raise interest rates, but the impact on an economy will depend on a) what is causing the inflation and b) the nature of the balance sheets involved.Simply following the Fed risks bad outcomes for Europe and the rest of the Anglo Saxon Markets.Inflation at the moment is largely cost push, not demand pull, certainly not outside of the US.