Chief Economist, Heteronomics

Phil Rush

Chief Economist

Heteronomics

Heteronomics represents a different kind of economics. We believe analysis should delve into the details of what is really going on, rather than using overly simplistic assumptions to quick-sell stories. Independence from myopic institutional pressures allows us to focus on the realities underlying your asset allocation decisions, without the conflicts of the old market structures. Heteronomics targets the themes driving UK asset prices, offering the benefits of depth, independence and ultimately price.

UK-centric macro research

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>EA inflation rebounded beyond expectations to 2.6% y-o-y in May, 5bps above our forecast. Services inflation surged to 4.1%, its highest since Oct-23.</li><li>The upside news in services was broad-based across member states, albeit partly offset by a lesser rebound in energy prices. The consistency of these surprises raises concerns.</li><li>Higher underlying inflation and wage settlements amid falling unemployment are unambiguously hawkish, but the ECB’s data dependence only applies beyond June’s cut.</li></ul>

EA inflation rebounded beyond expectations to 2.6% y-o-y in May, 5bps above our forecast. Services inflation surged to 4.1%, its highest since Oct-23.The upside news in services was broad-based across member states, albeit partly offset by a lesser rebound in energy prices. The consistency of these surprises raises concerns.Higher underlying inflation and wage settlements amid falling unemployment are unambiguously hawkish, but the ECB’s data dependence only applies beyond June’s cut.

EA Services Inflation Resurgent in May-24

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Nordea

Nordea

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

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<ul><li>The headline ESI stood at 94.0 in May, down from 94.9 in April.</li><li>Confidence indicators for manufacturers, retailers and for the construction sector fell while it edged up for private services.</li><li>Business sector’s price plans were largely unchanged at a low level, supporting our view of inflation below the Riksbank’s forecast. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The headline ESI stood at 94.0 in May, down from 94.9 in April.Confidence indicators for manufacturers, retailers and for the construction sector fell while it edged up for private services.Business sector’s price plans were largely unchanged at a low level, supporting our view of inflation below the Riksbank’s forecast. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Swedish Tendency Survey: Continued low inflation

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

<ul><li>With the release of freight rate data earlier today, there are still good reasons to believe that goods inflation will arrive throughout the summer across USD, EUR and GBP inflation.</li><li>While the exact impact and lags of rising containerized freight prices are yet to be discovered, it’s possible to study which markets will be hit hardest should goods inflation rise through a simple “what-if” study.</li><li>The increase in freight rates seem to have cooled a bit compared to April / early May, but we are still placed around 3-5% in weekly increases across the key routes globally, and the current “no news from Gaza” scenario leaves few arguments as to why the increase should suddenly stop over the coming months, especially given the futures curve hinting at substantially higher freight rates.</li></ul>

With the release of freight rate data earlier today, there are still good reasons to believe that goods inflation will arrive throughout the summer across USD, EUR and GBP inflation.While the exact impact and lags of rising containerized freight prices are yet to be discovered, it’s possible to study which markets will be hit hardest should goods inflation rise through a simple “what-if” study.The increase in freight rates seem to have cooled a bit compared to April / early May, but we are still placed around 3-5% in weekly increases across the key routes globally, and the current “no news from Gaza” scenario leaves few arguments as to why the increase should suddenly stop over the coming months, especially given the futures curve hinting at substantially higher freight rates.

Inflation Watch – Is goods-flation a bigger issue for the BoE and the ECB than the Fed?

Podcast Exploring Themes Driving Global Markets, Nomura - The Week Ahead

Nomura – The Week Ahead

Podcast Exploring Themes Driving Global Markets

Nomura - The Week Ahead

We explore the main themes that will drive global markets over the coming week, discussing the key market moving events and risks to keep on your radar.

<ul><li>Key data releases in the upcoming week include PMI data from China, CPI data from Tokyo and Australia, GDP data from India, and Industrial production data from Korea</li><li>US core PCE inflation data forecasted to be 0.252% for April, indicating a possible slowdown in inflation</li><li>Fed expected to delay easing cycle start until September, with recent data showing signs of slowing growth and consumer sector cracks</li></ul>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Key data releases in the upcoming week include PMI data from China, CPI data from Tokyo and Australia, GDP data from India, and Industrial production data from KoreaUS core PCE inflation data forecasted to be 0.252% for April, indicating a possible slowdown in inflationFed expected to delay easing cycle start until September, with recent data showing signs of slowing growth and consumer sector cracksThis content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

AI Generated Content, Heteronomics

Heteronomics AI

AI Generated Content

<ul><li>Malaysia's CPI inflation in April 2024 remained at 1.8% year-on-year, against the consensus expectation of a rise to 1.9%.</li><li>The current rate is just 0.1 percentage points lower than the one-year average.</li><li>This confirms broader stability at a near-target inflation rate.</li></ul><div>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.</div>

Malaysia's CPI inflation in April 2024 remained at 1.8% year-on-year, against the consensus expectation of a rise to 1.9%.The current rate is just 0.1 percentage points lower than the one-year average.This confirms broader stability at a near-target inflation rate.This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Malaysia CPI Inflation 1.8% y-o-y (consensus 1.9%) in Apr-24