IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

NIKKON HOLDINGS CO., LTD. transports freight by rail, trucks, ships, and airplanes.  The Company's freight includes automobile, automobile parts, and agricultural machinery.  In addition to freight services, the Company provides warehousing and packaging services.  The Company also offers customs clearing and casualty insurance services.

<ul>
<li>On 20 May, Bloomberg <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-05-20/japan-s-nikkon-said-to-weigh-going-private-with-us-funds-to-bid?embedded-checkout=true" target="_blank" rel="noopener">reported</a> that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkon-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17346:1" rel="noopener">Nikkon Holdings (9072 JP)</a> is considering going private and preparing to hold a first-round bidding round in early June. </li>
<li>The shareholder structure is conducive to a privatisation bid as two activists (Farallon and Oasis) hold 51.6 million shares (44.23% ownership ratio). </li>
<li>Bain Capital, Warburg Pincus and Blackstone are expected to take part in the auction. My analysis suggests an offer price of at least 6,200 (7.4% above the last close).</li>
</ul>


On 20 May, Bloomberg reported that Nikkon Holdings (9072 JP) is considering going private and preparing to hold a first-round bidding round in early June. 
The shareholder structure is conducive to a privatisation bid as two activists (Farallon and Oasis) hold 51.6 million shares (44.23% ownership ratio). 
Bain Capital, Warburg Pincus and Blackstone are expected to take part in the auction. My analysis suggests an offer price of at least 6,200 (7.4% above the last close).


NIKKON Holdings (9072 JP): Thoughts on a Potential Privatisation Offer

Baoye Group is a China-based engineering and construction company. It operates through three segments: Construction, Property Development, and Building Materials, providing services for various buildings and urban infrastructure, and manufacturing industrialized building materials. The company was founded in 1974 and is headquartered in Shaoxing, Zhejiang Province, China.

<ul>
<li>On 8 May, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/baoye-group-co-ltd-class-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16758:1" rel="noopener">Baoye Group (2355 HK)</a> received a resolution for a special dividend of HK$5.50, which was proposed by a shareholder (representing 1.02% of the outstanding shares).</li>
<li>The special dividend represents a 40.7% premium to the undisturbed price. The management opposes the resolution and has the votes to block the resolution at the 18 June AGM. </li>
<li>The proposal shines a light on the Board’s poor capital allocation of the HK$12.58 net cash. Near-term, it also increases the odds of a privatisation proposal from the Chairman. </li>
</ul>


On 8 May, Baoye Group (2355 HK) received a resolution for a special dividend of HK$5.50, which was proposed by a shareholder (representing 1.02% of the outstanding shares).
The special dividend represents a 40.7% premium to the undisturbed price. The management opposes the resolution and has the votes to block the resolution at the 18 June AGM. 
The proposal shines a light on the Board’s poor capital allocation of the HK$12.58 net cash. Near-term, it also increases the odds of a privatisation proposal from the Chairman. 


Baoye (2355 HK): Unusual Activism Which Could Be a Template for Dealing with Cash Hoards

Kakaku.com, Inc provides price comparison services and products information through its website.  The Company also provides Internet advertising services.

<ul>
<li>On 23 April, <a href="https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/800975" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Bloomberg</a> reported that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/eqt-ab" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28922:1" rel="noopener">EQT (EQT SS)</a> is considering a takeover of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kakaku-com-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7408:1" rel="noopener">Kakaku.com Inc (2371 JP)</a>, resulting in the last close being 29.7% above the undisturbed price. </li>
<li>The shareholder structure is conducive to a privatisation bid. The three substantial shareholders would entertain an attractive offer, despite having differing end goals.</li>
<li>The Bloomberg article did not disclose the potential offer price. My analysis suggests an offer price around JPY3,000, 9.1% above the last close.</li>
</ul>


On 23 April, Bloomberg reported that EQT (EQT SS) is considering a takeover of Kakaku.com Inc (2371 JP), resulting in the last close being 29.7% above the undisturbed price. 
The shareholder structure is conducive to a privatisation bid. The three substantial shareholders would entertain an attractive offer, despite having differing end goals.
The Bloomberg article did not disclose the potential offer price. My analysis suggests an offer price around JPY3,000, 9.1% above the last close.


Kakaku.com (2371 JP): Thoughts on a Potential EQT Privatisation Offer

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Guoco Group Limited is an investment holding company with diversified operations across Asia and Europe. Its core businesses include property development and investment, hospitality and leisure, financial services, and principal investments. The company was incorporated in 1990 and is headquartered in Hong Kong.

<ul>
<li>I see <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/guoco-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5290:1" rel="noopener">Guoco Group Ltd (53 HK)</a>'s implied stub at around a decade low. And a trailing P/B of 0.34x, versus the five-year average of 0.4x. </li>
<li>~67%-Held <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/guocoland-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17467:1" rel="noopener">GuocoLand (GUOL SP)</a> (trading at 0.64x P/B) looks set to privatise ~68%-held <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/guocoland-malaysia-bhd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16496:1" rel="noopener">Guocoland Malaysia (GUOL MK)</a> at ~0.55x P/B, further adding to Guoco's look-through "cheapness". </li>
<li>It's coming up to eight years since the Quek family last attempted to take Guoco private. I can see the family stepping up here.</li>
</ul>


I see Guoco Group Ltd (53 HK)'s implied stub at around a decade low. And a trailing P/B of 0.34x, versus the five-year average of 0.4x. 
~67%-Held GuocoLand (GUOL SP) (trading at 0.64x P/B) looks set to privatise ~68%-held Guocoland Malaysia (GUOL MK) at ~0.55x P/B, further adding to Guoco's look-through "cheapness". 
It's coming up to eight years since the Quek family last attempted to take Guoco private. I can see the family stepping up here.


Guoco (53 HK): Still Deep Value. Still Illiquid

BeijingWest Industries International Limited is an investment holding company primarily engaged in the manufacture, sale, and trading of automotive parts and components, focusing on automotive suspension products for passenger vehicles. The company also provides research and technical services. It was incorporated in 2001 and is headquartered in Wan Chai, Hong Kong.

<ul>
<li>Auto components play <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/beijingwest-industries-interna" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13118:1" rel="noopener">BeijingWest Industries (2339 HK)</a> is suspended pursuant to the Hong Kong Code on Takeovers and Mergers.</li>
<li>BeijingWest hasn't returned a profit since FY19. Following a major restructuring (equity + CB) announced last November, primarily to shore up finances, the share price is up an eye-watering ~320%</li>
<li>A big part of that euphoric price rise was controlling shareholder SOE-backed BWI Beijing backstopping the restructuring. But a privatisation tilt here at ~5x P/B? Unlikely. </li>
</ul>


Auto components play BeijingWest Industries (2339 HK) is suspended pursuant to the Hong Kong Code on Takeovers and Mergers.
BeijingWest hasn't returned a profit since FY19. Following a major restructuring (equity + CB) announced last November, primarily to shore up finances, the share price is up an eye-watering ~320%
A big part of that euphoric price rise was controlling shareholder SOE-backed BWI Beijing backstopping the restructuring. But a privatisation tilt here at ~5x P/B? Unlikely. 


BeijingWest Industries (2339 HK): Halted Pursuant To Takeover's Code

Privatisations
Buy before they do

NIKKON Holdings (9072 JP): Thoughts on a Potential Privatisation Offer

Bloomberg reported that Nikkon is considering going private and preparing to hold a first-round bidding round in early June. My analysis suggests...

Arun George

Baoye (2355 HK): Unusual Activism Which Could Be a Template for Dealing with Cash Hoards

The proposal shines a light on the Board’s poor capital allocation of the HK$12.58 net cash. Near-term, it also increases the odds of a...

Arun George

Kakaku.com (2371 JP): Thoughts on a Potential EQT Privatisation Offer

Oasis has increased its stake from 12.11% to 15.74% of outstanding shares. Oasis’ last two purchases were made on 24 April, a day after Bloomberg...

Arun George

Guoco (53 HK): Still Deep Value. Still Illiquid

Guoco remains a potential privatisation play; and/or a deep value play. I see the implied stub - net of the key listcos - around a decade low. The...

David Blennerhassett

BeijingWest Industries (2339 HK): Halted Pursuant To Takeover's Code

Trading at 5x P/B. That's a bubble. I can't see BWI Beijing launching a privatisation anywhere near this share price. My bet is that BWI Beijing...

David Blennerhassett