Pan-Asia Tactical Market Calls (Quant-Driven), MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Pan-Asia Tactical Market Calls (Quant-Driven)

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

Equity Derivatives

The Nikkei-225 Stock Average is a price-weighted average of 225 top-rated Japanese companies listed in the First Section of the Tokyo Stock Exchange. The Nikkei Stock Average was first published on May 16, 1949, where the average price was ¥176.21 with a divisor of 225. 

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)</a> had a great run this year, since Trump's Liberation Day in April 2025, but seems to be stalling as of lately. </li>
<li>The index started correcting this week, after a 3-week rally, the interest rate decision by the BOJ this Friday (most likely a hike) could increase volatility.</li>
<li>This insight will try to define the best entry zones in case the index falls further in the next few days, weeks. </li>
</ul>


The Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) had a great run this year, since Trump's Liberation Day in April 2025, but seems to be stalling as of lately. 
The index started correcting this week, after a 3-week rally, the interest rate decision by the BOJ this Friday (most likely a hike) could increase volatility.
This insight will try to define the best entry zones in case the index falls further in the next few days, weeks. 


Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) Outlook Ahead of Friday's BOJ Rate Decision

Equity/Index & Cross Asset Volatility Specialist, Cameron Design

Jay Cameron

Equity/Index & Cross Asset Volatility Specialist

Cameron Design

We specialize in financial products and volatility. Our strategies balance speed, data, and risk control to capture opportunities across global markets. Our research leverages AI and data analytics to continuously refine our algorithms and adapt to evolving market dynamics.

The MSCI World Index is a free-float weighted equity index. It was developed with a base value of 100 as of December 31, 1969. MXWO includes developed world markets, and does not include emerging markets. MXWD includes both emerging and developed markets.

<ul>
<li>The bullish outlook for global equities is driven by the macro strength of Developed Markets, including US upside and Eurozone resilience, plus corporate governance reforms.</li>
<li>Central bank divergence, FX risks 2026+ may warrant a look at VIX and gold portfolio hedges.</li>
<li>KOSPI 200 led 2025 gains among our selection of indices, highlighting AI alpha from memory chips as another dimension to the global GPU rally.</li>
</ul>


The bullish outlook for global equities is driven by the macro strength of Developed Markets, including US upside and Eurozone resilience, plus corporate governance reforms.
Central bank divergence, FX risks 2026+ may warrant a look at VIX and gold portfolio hedges.
KOSPI 200 led 2025 gains among our selection of indices, highlighting AI alpha from memory chips as another dimension to the global GPU rally.


Global Markets: US Rates, Korean Alpha, and the AI Diversification Thesis

SBI Shinsei Bank, Ltd. provides banking services including deposits, loans, and foreign exchange transaction, as well as investment trust service and issuance of long-term bonds.

<ul>
<li>The SBI Shinsei Bank (8303) IPO is positioned to benefit from rising Japanese interest rates and its mandate to lead regional bank consolidation under the "Fourth Megabank" strategy.</li>
<li>Despite risks such as 2023 buyout litigation related to SBI's majority control, market interest suggests the 1450 listing price seems to be undervalued.</li>
<li>The anticipated BoJ rate hike of 25bp to 0.75% is expected to act as a catalyst, boosting margins across the Japanese banking sector and potentially providing post-IPO momentum</li>
</ul>


The SBI Shinsei Bank (8303) IPO is positioned to benefit from rising Japanese interest rates and its mandate to lead regional bank consolidation under the "Fourth Megabank" strategy.
Despite risks such as 2023 buyout litigation related to SBI's majority control, market interest suggests the 1450 listing price seems to be undervalued.
The anticipated BoJ rate hike of 25bp to 0.75% is expected to act as a catalyst, boosting margins across the Japanese banking sector and potentially providing post-IPO momentum


SBI Shinsei Bank (8303) IPO Today, BoJ This Week

TOPIX-Banks Index is a capitalization-weighted index of all the banks listed on the First Section of the Tokyo Stock Exchange and is one of the 33 industry sectors of the TOPIX Index (TPX). The index was developed with a base value of 1000 as of January 6, 1992. The parent index is TPX.

<ul>
<li>Japanese banks are entering a new, structurally sound phase driven by the BoJ's policy pivot, which is fundamentally elevating Net Interest Income and profitability.</li>
<li>Capital efficiency and mandatory corporate governance reforms are set to significantly close the P/B gap against global peers.</li>
<li>TOPIX Bank Index could be poised for continued outperformance over the broader market, making it an essential, high-conviction portfolio exposure as 8303 Shinsei returns to the index.</li>
</ul>


Japanese banks are entering a new, structurally sound phase driven by the BoJ's policy pivot, which is fundamentally elevating Net Interest Income and profitability.
Capital efficiency and mandatory corporate governance reforms are set to significantly close the P/B gap against global peers.
TOPIX Bank Index could be poised for continued outperformance over the broader market, making it an essential, high-conviction portfolio exposure as 8303 Shinsei returns to the index.


Japanese Banks: TPNBNK Structural Sector Buy-Case, Preparing for Shinsei (8303) January Passive Flow

The NIFTY 50 index is National Stock Exchange of India's benchmark stock market index for Indian equity market. Nifty is owned and managed by India Index Services and Products (IISL), which is a wholly owned subsidiary of the NSE Strategic Investment Corporation Limited.

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23617:1" rel="noopener">NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX)</a> is in the middle of a very mild correction, the index is now in its 3rd week down but the pullback has been <em>very </em>minimal.</li>
<li>We think this is the <strong>ideal set up to add LONG NIFTY 50 positions</strong>: mild pullback coupled with a high probability of reversal on our quantitative TIME MODEL.  </li>
<li>The proposed tactical LONG trade will be valid for this entire week, if the index stays below last week's Close.</li>
</ul>


The NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX) is in the middle of a very mild correction, the index is now in its 3rd week down but the pullback has been very minimal.
We think this is the ideal set up to add LONG NIFTY 50 positions: mild pullback coupled with a high probability of reversal on our quantitative TIME MODEL.  
The proposed tactical LONG trade will be valid for this entire week, if the index stays below last week's Close.


NIFTY 50 Tactical Outlook: A Buy Opportunity

Equity Derivatives (EQD) and Vol-Based Insights

Equity Derivatives
Equity Derivatives (EQD) and Vol-Based Insights

Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) Outlook Ahead of Friday's BOJ Rate Decision

The Nikkei 225 uptrend has been stalling recently. A potential BOJ interest rate hike this Friday could increase volatility. Check our model...

Nico Rosti

Global Markets: US Rates, Korean Alpha, and the AI Diversification Thesis

Equities bullish due to strong Developed Markets, corporate governance reforms, and GPU upside in Asia and US/AI Memory alpha in Korea. CB...

Jay Cameron

SBI Shinsei Bank (8303) IPO Today, BoJ This Week

SBI Shinsei Bank IPO poised to capitalize on rising Japanese interest rates and lead regional bank consolidation, despite risks and...

Jay Cameron

Japanese Banks: TPNBNK Structural Sector Buy-Case, Preparing for Shinsei (8303) January Passive Flow

The IPO of SBI Shinsei Bank (8303) at 1450 per share signals a positive shift for the bank, clearing its legacy JPY370B government bailout debt,...

Jay Cameron

NIFTY 50 Tactical Outlook: A Buy Opportunity

The NIFTY Index is experiencing a mild correction, presenting an ideal opportunity to add LONG NIFTY 50 positions with a high probability of...

Nico Rosti

Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) Outlook Ahead of Friday's BOJ Rate Decision

​The Nikkei 225 uptrend has been stalling recently. A potential BOJ interest rate hike this Friday could increase volatility. Check our model...

Nico Rosti

Global Markets: US Rates, Korean Alpha, and the AI Diversification Thesis

Equities bullish due to strong Developed Markets, corporate governance reforms, and GPU upside in Asia and US/AI Memory alpha in Korea. CB...

Jay Cameron

SBI Shinsei Bank (8303) IPO Today, BoJ This Week

​SBI Shinsei Bank IPO poised to capitalize on rising Japanese interest rates and lead regional bank consolidation, despite risks and...

Jay Cameron

Japanese Banks: TPNBNK Structural Sector Buy-Case, Preparing for Shinsei (8303) January Passive Flow

The IPO of SBI Shinsei Bank (8303) at 1450 per share signals a positive shift for the bank, clearing its legacy JPY370B government bailout debt,...

Jay Cameron

NIFTY 50 Tactical Outlook: A Buy Opportunity

​The NIFTY Index is experiencing a mild correction, presenting an ideal opportunity to add LONG NIFTY 50 positions with a high probability of...

Nico Rosti

The Nikkei 225 uptrend has been stalling recently. A potential BOJ interest rate hike this Friday could increase volatility. Check our model...

SBI Shinsei Bank IPO poised to capitalize on rising Japanese interest rates and lead regional bank consolidation, despite risks and...

The NIFTY Index is experiencing a mild correction, presenting an ideal opportunity to add LONG NIFTY 50 positions with a high probability of...